The Bills Win More Regular-Season Games Than Anyone. January Keeps a Different Record.
Eight weeks into 2026, the Buffalo Bills are 6-1 straight up, tied with the 49ers and Vikings for the best record in the league, and second in our power ranking. On Monday night they visit Minnesota as 3.5-point favorites.
None of that is new for Buffalo. Since 2020 no NFL team has won more regular-season games. The story of this franchise is what the market has done with that, and what has happened once the regular season ends.
How they got to 6-1
| Week | Game | Score | Spread faced | Against the spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | at Texans | W 36-31 | -1.5 | Beat it by 3.5 | Over 44.5 |
| 2 | vs Lions | W 41-31 | -5.5 | Beat it by 4.5 | Over 54.5 |
| 3 | vs Chargers | W 24-16 | -7 | Beat it by 1 | Under 50.5 |
| 4 | vs Patriots | L 26-29 | -7 | Missed by 10 | Over 49.5 |
| 5 | at Rams | W 37-34 | +3.5 | Beat it by 6.5 | Over 55.5 |
| 6 | at Raiders | W 33-30 | -5.5 | Missed by 2.5 | Over 53.5 |
| 7 | bye | ||||
| 8 | vs Ravens | W 36-10 | -3 | Beat it by 23 | Under 54.5 |
6-1 straight up, 5-2 against the spread, 5-2 on the total.
The offense is the best in the league. The Bills score 33.3 points a game, first in the NFL. By EPA per play they rank second passing and second rushing.
The defense is not. They allow 25.9 points a game, 24th. By EPA they rank 22nd against the pass and 20th against the run. Their combined EPA rank is fifth.
Their games are high-scoring and close. Five of seven finished over the total, on average 7.4 points above it. Five were decided by one score, and the Bills won four. Before Sunday's 26-point win over Baltimore, their six games had been decided by an average of 5.3 points.
It is close to the mirror image of Minnesota, which allows the fewest points in the league and scores the 27th-most. Our Vikings profile covers that team.
The best regular-season team of the 2020s
| Regular season, 2020-2025 | Bills | League rank |
|---|---|---|
| Straight up | 73-27 (73.0%) | 1st |
| Against the spread | 54-44-2 (55.0%) | 4th |
The Bills edged the Chiefs (72-29) for the best regular-season record of the six seasons. Against the spread they were fourth, behind the Lions (61.4%), Bengals (58.0%) and Steelers (57.9%).
That second line is the more interesting one. A team that wins nearly three games in four gets priced like it: Buffalo was favored on average in every one of those seasons, by as much as 8.2 points a game in 2021. Even so, it beat the spread a little more often than it missed. Compare Kansas City, which won almost as often straight up and finished 28th against the spread (44.1%) over the same seasons. The market caught up to the Chiefs. It never quite caught up to the Bills.
There is a limit to it. When the Bills were favored by seven or more since 2020, they were 19-20-1 against the spread. Priced as a heavy favorite, Buffalo was a coin flip, like nearly everyone else.
From the long drought to the top
The Bills played no playoff games from 2002 through 2016. Over those fifteen seasons they were underdogs on average in most years and won 42.1% of their regular-season games. Then the team changed, and the price changed with it.
| Regular season | Straight up | Against the spread |
|---|---|---|
| 2002-2016 | 101-139 (42.1%) | 118-114-8 (50.8%) |
| 2017-2025 | 98-50 (66.2%) | 79-66-3 (54.4%) |
The straight-up record moved by 24 points. The record against the spread moved by less than four. That is what a point spread is supposed to do: it absorbs most of the difference between a bad team and a good one, and leaves the result close to a coin flip either way.
2021: the season the record undersold
The 2021 Bills went 11-6 and outscored opponents by 194 points, the best margin of any Bills team in our data. They were 0-5 in one-score games. Every close game went the other way, and the team still won its division.
It is the reverse of the 2022 Vikings, who went 13-4 while being outscored and won all eleven of their one-score games. We tested whether records like these predict the following season in our luck study. For good teams they did not, once ordinary regression was allowed for. The 2022 Bills went 13-3; the 2023 Vikings went 7-10. The study says neither result was something the close-game record could have told you in advance.
January
| Playoffs, 2017-2025 | Record | Pct |
|---|---|---|
| Straight up | 8-8 | 50.0% |
| Against the spread | 7-9 | 43.8% |
Eight playoff appearances in nine seasons, and every one ended before the Super Bowl. Four ended in Kansas City's favor:
| Season | Round | Game | Spread faced | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | AFC Championship | at Chiefs | +3 | L 24-38 |
| 2021 | Divisional | at Chiefs | +2.5 | L 36-42 (OT) |
| 2023 | Divisional | vs Chiefs | -2.5 | L 24-27 |
| 2024 | AFC Championship | at Chiefs | +1 | L 29-32 |
0-4 straight up and 0-4 against the spread, and three of the four were decided by six points or fewer. Buffalo has also lost all three of its playoff overtime games in that stretch: at Houston in 2019, the 2021 game in Kansas City, and at Denver last January.
Sixteen playoff games is not a sample, and four of them are one opponent in one era. It explains the tone in Buffalo every winter, and nothing about this roster's chances.
The Patriots
One more piece of history, because it showed up again this season. From 2002 through 2019 the Bills went 4-32 straight up against New England in the regular season, and 12-22-2 against the spread. Since 2020 they are 8-4 straight up, but still 5-7 against the spread.
The Bills' only loss of 2026 came against the Patriots in Week 4, 29-26, as seven-point favorites. It is a rivalry record found by looking, across 48 games, and it describes the Brady years more than anything since. It does not forecast the rematch.
Twenty-four seasons against the spread
| 2002-2025 | Record | Pct |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread, regular season | 197-180-11 | 52.2% |
| Against the spread, playoffs | 7-9 | 43.8% |
| Straight up, regular season | 199-189 | 51.3% |
| Straight up, playoffs | 8-8 | 50.0% |
The 2022 Bills-Bengals game, suspended in the first quarter and never completed, is not counted.
Over the full 24 seasons the Bills rank eighth of 32 against the spread, and both halves of the data sit above 50%: 51.0% from 2002 to 2013, 53.3% from 2014 to 2025. Steady, and close to the middle.
| Regular season, 2002-2025 | Against the spread | Pct |
|---|---|---|
| At home | 100-90-5 | 52.6% |
| On the road | 97-90-6 | 51.8% |
| Favored | 100-84-5 | 54.2% |
| Underdog | 96-93-6 | 50.8% |
| Road favorite | 32-28-3 | 53.2% |
| Inside the AFC East | 85-80-5 | 51.5% |
| Night games (7 PM ET or later) | 22-28-1 | 44.1% |
| Favored by 7 or more | 30-28-1 | 51.7% |
The only row far from 50% is night games, and at 51 games it is too small to read anything into. Every other cut is within a few points of a coin flip.
Pushes count as half in every percentage, the same rule the site uses.
Monday night in Minnesota
The Bills visit U.S. Bank Stadium on Monday, November 9, favored by 3.5 with a total of 45.5. It is the league's highest-scoring offense against its stingiest defense: the Vikings allow 13.3 points a game, and have held five of seven opponents to 16 or fewer.
There is a common opponent. Buffalo beat Detroit 41-31 in Week 2; Minnesota lost there 19-15 last Sunday. Those were different games, in different weeks, and they tell you each team's style more than which one is better.
The total of 45.5 is below every Bills game this season except the opener in Houston (44.5). Six of the Vikings' seven games finished under; five of the Bills' seven finished over. One of those streaks gives on Monday night, or the total lands right where the market put it.
What the data supports
- The Bills are 6-1 and second in the power ranking, on the league's highest-scoring offense and a bottom-ten defense.
- Since 2020 they have the NFL's best regular-season record, 73-27, and beat the spread 55.0% of the time despite being priced as a favorite every season. As a heavy favorite they were a coin flip.
- The rise from the drought shows the spread working. Straight-up winning moved 24 points between eras; the record against the spread moved under four.
- The playoff record is 8-8 since 2017, with four losses to Kansas City. Too few games to be a pattern, and none of them involve this roster's January.
- No split of the 24-season record is far from 50% on enough games to mean anything.