Rankings

Evaluate teams based on performance indexing and true market-value quality metrics

Early season — rankings become meaningful at week 4, and prior to a completed week 1 we use data from last season.

Spread Performance Index

32 Teams
Rank Team Record ATS Cover % MAR PS RPI Trend
1 Seahawks Seahawks 1-0-0 0-0-1 75.0% 8.5 17.2 58.59 0-0-1
2 Jaguars Jaguars 1-0-0 1-0-0 66.7% 6.2 15.3 54.33 1-0
3 Patriots Patriots 0-1-0 0-0-1 64.3% 4.7 15.7 51.91 0-0-1
4 Rams Rams 0-1-0 0-1-0 60.0% 3.1 16.3 57.23 0-1
5 49ers 49ers 1-0-0 1-0-0 63.2% 1.2 14.3 57.37 1-0
6 Bears Bears 1-0-0 1-0-0 63.2% 2.4 10.2 52.10 1-0
7 Panthers Panthers 0-1-0 0-1-0 61.1% 0.6 12.4 54.52 0-1
8 Colts Colts 0-1-0 0-1-0 52.9% 2.6 16.1 51.77 0-1
9 Texans Texans 0-1-0 0-1-0 52.6% 4.4 13.0 51.50 0-1
9 Giants Giants 1-0-0 1-0-0 52.9% 1.5 14.4 50.42 1-0
11 Saints Saints 0-1-0 1-0-0 52.9% -0.5 15.4 52.89 1-0
12 Vikings Vikings 1-0-0 1-0-0 50.0% 1.5 15.1 50.24 1-0
13 Falcons Falcons 0-1-0 0-1-0 52.9% -2.3 10.3 52.62 0-1
14 Eagles Eagles 1-0-0 0-1-0 55.6% -1.4 9.1 50.11 0-1
15 Bills Bills 1-0-0 1-0-0 47.4% 0.8 13.6 49.11 1-0
16 Steelers Steelers 1-0-0 1-0-0 50.0% -0.4 10.4 48.83 1-0
17 Broncos Broncos 0-1-0 0-1-0 50.0% 0.9 11.2 46.95 0-1
18 Lions Lions 1-0-0 0-1-0 47.1% 0.2 15.1 48.08 0-1
19 Chargers Chargers 0-1-0 0-1-0 47.2% -0.3 13.6 48.07 0-1
20 Browns Browns 0-1-0 0-1-0 47.1% -0.5 16.2 47.38 0-1
21 Dolphins Dolphins 0-1-0 0-1-0 47.1% -1.5 16.6 48.23 0-1
22 Bengals Bengals 1-0-0 1-0-0 47.1% -2.3 17.7 47.45 1-0
23 Titans Titans 0-1-0 0-1-0 41.2% -4.0 20.4 49.84 0-1
24 Commanders Commanders 0-1-0 1-0-0 41.2% -2.8 16.4 47.77 1-0
25 Cowboys Cowboys 0-1-0 0-1-0 41.2% -2.7 11.5 46.67 0-1
26 Cardinals Cardinals 1-0-0 1-0-0 35.3% -4.2 15.9 50.93 1-0
27 Jets Jets 1-0-0 1-0-0 44.1% -5.6 18.9 47.72 1-0
28 Chiefs Chiefs 1-0-0 1-0-0 35.3% -1.2 11.3 43.65 1-0
29 Packers Packers 0-1-0 0-1-0 36.1% -1.8 11.7 46.26 0-1
30 Buccaneers Buccaneers 0-1-0 0-1-0 29.4% -2.6 9.4 48.77 0-1
31 Raiders Raiders 1-0-0 1-0-0 41.2% -6.3 18.4 46.71 1-0
32 Ravens Ravens 1-0-0 1-0-0 35.3% -2.7 15.8 45.78 1-0

Totals Tendency Index

32 Teams
Rank Team OU Record Over % Avg Total Avg Score
1 Bears Bears 1-0-0 100.0% 47.5 96.0
2 Panthers Panthers 1-0-0 100.0% 47.5 96.0
3 Texans Texans 1-0-0 100.0% 44.5 67.0
4 Bills Bills 1-0-0 100.0% 44.5 67.0
5 Ravens Ravens 1-0-0 100.0% 48.5 64.0
6 Colts Colts 1-0-0 100.0% 48.5 64.0
7 Lions Lions 1-0-0 100.0% 49.5 61.0
8 Saints Saints 1-0-0 100.0% 49.5 61.0
9 Packers Packers 1-0-0 100.0% 46.5 61.0
10 Vikings Vikings 1-0-0 100.0% 46.5 61.0
11 Bengals Bengals 1-0-0 100.0% 50.5 60.0
12 Buccaneers Buccaneers 1-0-0 100.0% 50.5 60.0
13 Cowboys Cowboys 1-0-0 100.0% 47.5 48.0
14 Giants Giants 1-0-0 100.0% 47.5 48.0
15 Commanders Commanders 1-0-0 100.0% 43.5 46.0
16 Eagles Eagles 1-0-0 100.0% 43.5 46.0
17 Jaguars Jaguars 1-0-0 100.0% 40.5 44.0
18 Browns Browns 1-0-0 100.0% 40.5 44.0
19 Chiefs Chiefs 0-1-0 0.0% 42.5 41.0
20 Broncos Broncos 0-1-0 0.0% 42.5 41.0
21 Dolphins Dolphins 0-1-0 0.0% 40.5 40.0
22 Raiders Raiders 0-1-0 0.0% 40.5 40.0
23 Cardinals Cardinals 0-1-0 0.0% 47.5 40.0
24 Chargers Chargers 0-1-0 0.0% 47.5 40.0
25 49ers 49ers 0-1-0 0.0% 47.5 34.0
26 Rams Rams 0-1-0 0.0% 47.5 34.0
27 Steelers Steelers 0-1-0 0.0% 40.5 33.0
28 Jets Jets 0-1-0 0.0% 39.5 33.0
29 Titans Titans 0-1-0 0.0% 39.5 33.0
30 Falcons Falcons 0-1-0 0.0% 40.5 33.0
31 Patriots Patriots 0-1-0 0.0% 44.5 23.0
32 Seahawks Seahawks 0-1-0 0.0% 44.5 23.0

Team Quality Indicators

32 Teams
Rank Team REL PRD ANYA NPP DPR YPPS YPPA
1 Seahawks Seahawks 13.3 19.3 7.3 8.4 9.5 12.0 17.5
2 Rams Rams 10.3 20.0 8.2 5.3 8.2 13.3 15.8
3 Patriots Patriots 6.7 21.6 7.4 13.0 8.7 13.7 16.0
4 Texans Texans 8.1 9.4 5.8 7.7 10.4 13.8 15.6
5 Jaguars Jaguars 7.5 10.6 6.3 9.4 7.9 12.2 15.2
6 Bills Bills 5.6 23.2 7.1 9.8 8.0 13.4 13.5
7 Broncos Broncos 3.9 7.8 5.8 5.7 9.9 14.4 15.3
8 49ers 49ers 3.8 -3.2 6.7 7.7 6.2 14.1 14.8
9 Eagles Eagles 2.7 18.7 6.5 8.1 7.8 14.1 16.4
10 Chargers Chargers 0.6 13.5 5.4 13.3 9.6 15.9 14.7
11 Colts Colts 4.1 4.7 6.5 7.9 8.5 12.6 14.4
12 Steelers Steelers 0.2 -0.5 5.9 7.7 9.6 13.3 15.5
13 Bears Bears 1.0 -3.3 6.6 5.6 7.7 14.6 15.0
14 Lions Lions 4.0 13.0 7.5 8.1 7.9 13.2 13.7
15 Vikings Vikings 1.2 -10.7 4.1 16.7 10.4 13.6 14.4
16 Ravens Ravens 1.9 7.1 6.3 13.3 6.8 13.3 15.1
17 Buccaneers Buccaneers -1.2 -7.7 5.9 8.8 8.4 14.3 13.9
18 Packers Packers 0.9 11.6 7.5 6.9 7.1 14.5 14.7
19 Panthers Panthers -2.9 -1.9 5.4 9.0 6.7 15.7 14.4
20 Falcons Falcons -3.0 -1.7 6.2 6.2 10.3 16.0 13.8
21 Chiefs Chiefs 2.0 -3.3 5.6 10.1 7.1 15.1 15.6
22 Dolphins Dolphins -5.3 -18.0 5.3 11.7 7.8 14.7 14.0
23 Bengals Bengals -4.3 -8.4 5.9 8.3 6.5 13.5 13.2
24 Saints Saints -5.2 -3.1 5.6 10.3 9.1 17.4 13.3
25 Cowboys Cowboys -4.3 -11.4 7.0 6.9 7.7 14.1 12.5
26 Giants Giants -3.2 -6.3 6.0 11.0 8.4 14.9 13.9
27 Commanders Commanders -5.2 -18.5 5.9 10.4 7.1 15.2 14.5
28 Cardinals Cardinals -5.4 -4.9 5.7 10.8 7.0 15.6 12.5
29 Browns Browns -7.1 -20.1 3.8 12.4 11.1 16.0 12.7
30 Titans Titans -8.3 -29.9 4.4 11.2 8.1 15.5 12.3
31 Jets Jets -11.1 -35.9 3.8 14.8 6.3 14.9 12.0
32 Raiders Raiders -10.0 -14.9 4.1 16.1 9.1 17.3 12.5

EPA Per Play

32 Teams
Rank Team Offensive EPA Defensive EPA Net EPA
Pass Rush Pass Rush Pass Rush
1 Seahawks Seahawks +0.15 -0.07 -0.10 -0.14 +0.25 +0.07
2 Patriots Patriots +0.17 -0.04 -0.10 -0.06 +0.27 +0.02
3 Rams Rams +0.23 0.00 -0.01 -0.05 +0.24 +0.05
4 Bills Bills +0.18 +0.08 -0.08 +0.08 +0.27 0.00
5 Texans Texans +0.01 -0.09 -0.19 -0.08 +0.20 0.00
6 Jaguars Jaguars +0.07 -0.01 -0.10 -0.04 +0.17 +0.03
7 Broncos Broncos +0.07 -0.03 -0.11 -0.03 +0.18 0.00
8 Eagles Eagles +0.05 -0.02 -0.10 -0.04 +0.15 +0.02
9 Packers Packers +0.24 -0.03 +0.10 -0.03 +0.15 0.00
10 Lions Lions +0.17 -0.06 +0.01 -0.03 +0.15 -0.03
11 Colts Colts +0.08 +0.08 +0.05 -0.06 +0.03 +0.14
12 Chiefs Chiefs +0.04 +0.02 0.00 -0.06 +0.04 +0.08
13 Chargers Chargers -0.06 -0.02 -0.09 -0.08 +0.03 +0.06
14 Bears Bears +0.09 +0.04 +0.06 0.00 +0.03 +0.04
15 Ravens Ravens +0.01 +0.08 +0.08 -0.08 -0.07 +0.16
16 49ers 49ers +0.15 -0.05 +0.12 0.00 +0.03 -0.06
17 Falcons Falcons +0.01 -0.04 -0.02 +0.02 +0.03 -0.06
18 Saints Saints -0.04 -0.12 -0.03 -0.10 0.00 -0.02
19 Steelers Steelers +0.01 0.00 +0.04 0.00 -0.03 0.00
20 Vikings Vikings -0.19 -0.03 -0.11 -0.07 -0.08 +0.04
21 Buccaneers Buccaneers -0.02 0.00 +0.08 -0.08 -0.10 +0.08
22 Giants Giants +0.01 +0.03 +0.04 +0.13 -0.03 -0.10
23 Cowboys Cowboys +0.17 -0.02 +0.23 +0.08 -0.06 -0.10
24 Browns Browns -0.27 -0.05 -0.11 -0.07 -0.16 +0.02
25 Dolphins Dolphins +0.01 -0.03 +0.14 +0.03 -0.13 -0.05
26 Cardinals Cardinals +0.01 -0.06 +0.16 -0.01 -0.15 -0.05
27 Panthers Panthers -0.06 -0.03 +0.11 0.00 -0.17 -0.03
28 Bengals Bengals +0.02 +0.02 +0.19 +0.07 -0.17 -0.05
29 Commanders Commanders -0.01 +0.01 +0.21 +0.05 -0.22 -0.04
30 Raiders Raiders -0.19 -0.26 +0.09 -0.07 -0.27 -0.19
31 Titans Titans -0.21 -0.07 +0.19 -0.03 -0.40 -0.04
32 Jets Jets -0.18 -0.07 +0.26 +0.01 -0.44 -0.07

Net = Offense - Defense; lower Defensive EPA (points allowed) is better.

Home Cover Efficiency

16 Teams
Rank Team Home Record Home ATS Cover % Avg Margin
1 Chiefs Chiefs 1-0 1-0 100.0% 18.5
2 Jaguars Jaguars 1-0 1-0 100.0% 15.5
3 Vikings Vikings 1-0 1-0 100.0% 14.5
4 Raiders Raiders 1-0 1-0 100.0% 11.0
4 Giants Giants 1-0 1-0 100.0% 11.0
6 Bengals Bengals 1-0 1-0 100.0% 2.5
7 Steelers Steelers 1-0 1-0 100.0% 0.5
8 Seahawks Seahawks 1-0 0-0-1 50.0% 0.0
9 Texans Texans 0-1 0-1 0.0% -3.5
10 Eagles Eagles 1-0 0-1 0.0% -4.0
11 Lions Lions 1-0 0-1 0.0% -6.0
12 Titans Titans 0-1 0-1 0.0% -14.5
13 Colts Colts 0-1 0-1 0.0% -15.0
14 Panthers Panthers 0-1 0-1 0.0% -19.0
15 Chargers Chargers 0-1 0-1 0.0% -20.5
16 Rams Rams 0-1 0-1 0.0% -23.5

Away Cover Efficiency

16 Teams
Rank Team Away Record Away ATS Cover % Avg Margin
1 49ers 49ers 1-0 1-0 100.0% 23.5
2 Cardinals Cardinals 1-0 1-0 100.0% 20.5
3 Bears Bears 1-0 1-0 100.0% 19.0
4 Ravens Ravens 1-0 1-0 100.0% 15.0
5 Jets Jets 1-0 1-0 100.0% 14.5
6 Saints Saints 0-1 1-0 100.0% 6.0
7 Commanders Commanders 0-1 1-0 100.0% 4.0
8 Bills Bills 1-0 1-0 100.0% 3.5
9 Patriots Patriots 0-1 0-0-1 50.0% 0.0
10 Falcons Falcons 0-1 0-1 0.0% -0.5
11 Buccaneers Buccaneers 0-1 0-1 0.0% -2.5
12 Cowboys Cowboys 0-1 0-1 0.0% -11.0
12 Dolphins Dolphins 0-1 0-1 0.0% -11.0
14 Packers Packers 0-1 0-1 0.0% -14.5
15 Browns Browns 0-1 0-1 0.0% -15.5
16 Broncos Broncos 0-1 0-1 0.0% -18.5