Weather Signal

Wind and Rain Are the Only Weather That Matters for NFL Totals

SpreadTrends July 12, 2026 Read the article

Totals Study

High Totals Land Under. Low Totals Don't Land Over.

SpreadTrends July 1, 2026

Totals Trend

The Primetime Under Is Real — and It's Getting Stronger

SpreadTrends June 30, 2026

Primetime Study

We Tried to Prove the Primetime Darlings Are Overrated. The Data Said the Opposite.

SpreadTrends June 15, 2026

Our Approach

Why We Don't Have a Strong Take on Every Game

SpreadTrends June 1, 2026

Track Record

Our NFL Model's Real Record: Every Prediction, Graded, Published

SpreadTrends May 15, 2026

Accuracy Study

Our Model Is Sharpest in September — and Week 18 Breaks It

SpreadTrends May 1, 2026

Market Lesson

In Defense of the Point Spread: The Most Honest Number in Sports

SpreadTrends April 30, 2026

ML Post-Mortem

We Built 360 Features to Predict NFL Totals. The Market Beat Almost All of Them.

SpreadTrends April 10, 2026

Model Report Card

One of Our Models "Went 93%" in a Week. We Back-Tested Every One. Here's What Held Up.

SpreadTrends March 15, 2026

Evaluation Guide

How to Evaluate Any NFL Prediction Service (Including This One)

SpreadTrends March 1, 2026

Stat Lesson

Correlation Is Necessary, Not Sufficient: The Stat Lesson That Reshaped How We Model Football

SpreadTrends February 15, 2026