NFL Luck: The Regression Claim We Measured and Won't Make

Two Weeks In: Who the Market Got Wrong, and Why It Won't Stay Wrong

SpreadTrends September 23, 2026

The Cowboys Cover at a Coin Flip — Except in January

Twenty-four seasons of Dallas results against the spread. The reputation is a straight-up story; the one durable split that isn't 50% is the playoffs.

SpreadTrends September 18, 2026

Momentum Is Real. It's Also Completely Priced.

SpreadTrends September 9, 2026

Week 1 2026: What the Numbers See in the Upcoming Matchups

SpreadTrends September 8, 2026

The EPA Mirage: When a Team's Record Is Lying to You

SpreadTrends August 26, 2026

Wind and Rain Are the Only Weather That Matters for NFL Totals

SpreadTrends July 12, 2026

High Totals Land Under. Low Totals Don't Land Over.

SpreadTrends July 1, 2026

The Primetime Under Is Real — and It's Getting Stronger

SpreadTrends June 30, 2026

We Tried to Prove the Primetime Darlings Are Overrated. The Data Said the Opposite.

SpreadTrends June 15, 2026

Why We Don't Have a Strong Take on Every Game

SpreadTrends June 1, 2026

Our NFL Model's Real Record: Every Prediction, Graded, Published

SpreadTrends May 15, 2026

Our Model Is Sharpest in September — and Week 18 Breaks It

SpreadTrends May 1, 2026

In Defense of the Point Spread: The Most Honest Number in Sports

SpreadTrends April 30, 2026

We Built 360 Features to Predict NFL Totals. The Market Beat Almost All of Them.

SpreadTrends April 10, 2026

One of Our Models "Went 93%" in a Week. We Back-Tested Every One. Here's What Held Up.

SpreadTrends March 15, 2026

How to Evaluate Any NFL Prediction Service (Including This One)

SpreadTrends March 1, 2026

Correlation Is Necessary, Not Sufficient: The Stat Lesson That Reshaped How We Model Football

SpreadTrends February 15, 2026