Predictions

Objective algorithmic probability outputs across spreads, totals, and win probabilities

46.9%
ATS Win Rate
vs Closing Lines
43.8% vs Opening Lines
62.5%
Accuracy
10-6
% of winners predicted
57.1%
Money Line Efficiency
vs Closing Lines
57.1% vs Opening Lines
56.2%
Over/Under Accuracy
9-7
totals projections

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2026

Season Summary

How our model's ATS projections actually fared in each situation — a retrospective record, not a forward prediction.

Model ATS Record

Type Record Accuracy
Favorite 2-4-0 33.3%
Underdog 5-4-1 55.0%
Even 0-0-0 --
Home 3-4-1 43.8%
Home Dog 0-1-0 0.0%
Net Unit Gain -1.6u

ATS Confidence

Confidence Record Accuracy
4-5-0 44.4%
1-2-0 33.3%
2-1-1 62.5%
0-0-0 --
0-0-0 --
Total 7-8-1 46.9%

Point Spread Range

Range Record Accuracy
Even - 2.5 3-1-0 75.0%
3 - 4 2-4-1 35.7%
6 - 7 1-2-0 33.3%
7.5 - 9.5 1-1-0 50.0%

Winner Confidence

Rating Record Accuracy
1-1-0 50.0%
1-2-0 33.3%
2-1-0 66.7%
4-1-0 80.0%
2-1-0 66.7%
Total 10-6-0 62.5%

Money Line Value

Value Tier Record Accuracy
vs Closing Lines
High Value 5-4-0 55.6%
Med Value 3-1-0 75.0%
Small Value 0-1-0 0.0%
vs Opening Lines
High Value 5-4-0 55.6%
Med Value 0-1-0 0.0%
Small Value 3-1-0 75.0%

Over/Under Confidence

Confidence Record Accuracy
6-0-0 100.0%
1-2-0 33.3%
1-3-0 25.0%
1-1-0 50.0%
0-1-0 0.0%
Total 9-7-0 56.2%
By Direction
Over 5-3-0 62.5%
Under 4-4-0 50.0%

Prediction Engine by Week

ATS Win Rate
Winner Accuracy
Favorite Win Rate

Game History

Correct Wrong Push
Date Week Visitor Home Score H Line Projected Rating Result
09/14/26 Week 1 Broncos Broncos Chiefs Chiefs 10-31 -2.5 Chiefs 3 Correct
09/13/26 Week 1 Cowboys Cowboys Giants Giants 20-28 3 Cowboys 1 Wrong
09/13/26 Week 1 Packers Packers Vikings Vikings 22-39 -2.5 Vikings 1 Correct
09/13/26 Week 1 Dolphins Dolphins Raiders Raiders 13-27 -3 Dolphins 1 Wrong
09/13/26 Week 1 Commanders Commanders Eagles Eagles 22-24 -6 Commanders 1 Correct
09/13/26 Week 1 Cardinals Cardinals Chargers Chargers 26-14 -8.5 Chargers 3 Wrong
09/13/26 Week 1 Bills Bills Texans Texans 36-31 1.5 Bills 1 Correct
09/13/26 Week 1 Ravens Ravens Colts Colts 41-23 3 Colts 1 Wrong
09/13/26 Week 1 Bears Bears Panthers Panthers 59-37 3 Bears 1 Correct
09/13/26 Week 1 Falcons Falcons Steelers Steelers 13-20 -6.5 Falcons 2 Wrong
09/13/26 Week 1 Browns Browns Jaguars Jaguars 10-34 -8.5 Jaguars 3 Correct
09/13/26 Week 1 Jets Jets Titans Titans 23-10 -1.5 Titans 2 Wrong
09/13/26 Week 1 Saints Saints Lions Lions 30-31 -7 Lions 1 Wrong
09/13/26 Week 1 Buccaneers Buccaneers Bengals Bengals 27-33 -3.5 Buccaneers 1 Wrong
09/10/26 Week 1 49ers 49ers Rams Rams 27-7 -3.5 49ers 2 Correct
09/09/26 Week 1 Patriots Patriots Seahawks Seahawks 10-13 -3 Seahawks 3 Push
Season Summary 7-8-1
Date Week Visitor Home Score Projected Probability Rating Result
09/14/26 Week 1 Broncos Broncos Chiefs Chiefs 10-31 Chiefs 61.8% 2 Correct
09/13/26 Week 1 Cowboys Cowboys Giants Giants 20-28 Cowboys 75.0% 4 Wrong
09/13/26 Week 1 Commanders Commanders Eagles Eagles 22-24 Eagles 85.6% 5 Correct
09/13/26 Week 1 Dolphins Dolphins Raiders Raiders 13-27 Dolphins 55.5% 1 Wrong
09/13/26 Week 1 Packers Packers Vikings Vikings 22-39 Packers 58.8% 2 Wrong
09/13/26 Week 1 Cardinals Cardinals Chargers Chargers 26-14 Chargers 86.4% 5 Wrong
09/13/26 Week 1 Buccaneers Buccaneers Bengals Bengals 27-33 Bengals 78.1% 4 Correct
09/13/26 Week 1 Jets Jets Titans Titans 23-10 Jets 74.3% 4 Correct
09/13/26 Week 1 Bills Bills Texans Texans 36-31 Texans 61.7% 2 Wrong
09/13/26 Week 1 Falcons Falcons Steelers Steelers 13-20 Steelers 81.5% 5 Correct
09/13/26 Week 1 Bears Bears Panthers Panthers 59-37 Bears 75.6% 4 Correct
09/13/26 Week 1 Ravens Ravens Colts Colts 41-23 Ravens 65.5% 3 Correct
09/13/26 Week 1 Saints Saints Lions Lions 30-31 Lions 72.5% 4 Correct
09/13/26 Week 1 Browns Browns Jaguars Jaguars 10-34 Jaguars 51.8% 1 Correct
09/10/26 Week 1 49ers 49ers Rams Rams 27-7 Rams 69.1% 3 Wrong
09/09/26 Week 1 Patriots Patriots Seahawks Seahawks 10-13 Seahawks 66.8% 3 Correct
Season Summary 10-6-0
Date Week Visitor Home Score ML Odds EV Value Tier Projected Result
09/14/26 Week 1 Broncos Broncos Chiefs Chiefs 10-31 -130 +9.38% Medium Chiefs Correct
09/13/26 Week 1 Cowboys Cowboys Giants Giants 20-28 -166 +20.24% High Cowboys Wrong
09/13/26 Week 1 Commanders Commanders Eagles Eagles 22-24 -245 +20.48% High Eagles Correct
09/13/26 Week 1 Cardinals Cardinals Chargers Chargers 26-14 -455 +5.45% Medium Chargers Wrong
09/13/26 Week 1 Dolphins Dolphins Raiders Raiders 13-27 +142 +34.31% High Dolphins Wrong
09/13/26 Week 1 Packers Packers Vikings Vikings 22-39 +120 +29.31% High Packers Wrong
09/13/26 Week 1 Bears Bears Panthers Panthers 59-37 -166 +21.08% High Bears Correct
09/13/26 Week 1 Falcons Falcons Steelers Steelers 13-20 -298 +8.91% Medium Steelers Correct
09/13/26 Week 1 Bills Bills Texans Texans 36-31 -108 +18.76% High Texans Wrong
09/13/26 Week 1 Jets Jets Titans Titans 23-10 -102 +47.07% High Jets Correct
09/13/26 Week 1 Ravens Ravens Colts Colts 41-23 -162 +5.96% Medium Ravens Correct
09/13/26 Week 1 Buccaneers Buccaneers Bengals Bengals 27-33 -205 +16.18% High Bengals Correct
09/10/26 Week 1 49ers 49ers Rams Rams 27-7 -218 +0.75% Small Rams Wrong
09/09/26 Week 1 Patriots Patriots Seahawks Seahawks 10-13 -143 +13.46% High Seahawks Correct
Season Summary 8-6-0
Date Week Visitor Home Score Total Projected Result
09/14/26 Week 1 Broncos Broncos Chiefs Chiefs 10-31 42.5 Under Correct
09/13/26 Week 1 Cowboys Cowboys Giants Giants 20-28 47.5 Over Correct
09/13/26 Week 1 Dolphins Dolphins Raiders Raiders 13-27 40.5 Under Correct
09/13/26 Week 1 Packers Packers Vikings Vikings 22-39 46.5 Over Correct
09/13/26 Week 1 Commanders Commanders Eagles Eagles 22-24 43.5 Over Correct
09/13/26 Week 1 Cardinals Cardinals Chargers Chargers 26-14 47.5 Over Wrong
09/13/26 Week 1 Falcons Falcons Steelers Steelers 13-20 40.5 Over Wrong
09/13/26 Week 1 Saints Saints Lions Lions 30-31 49.5 Under Wrong
09/13/26 Week 1 Bills Bills Texans Texans 36-31 44.5 Over Correct
09/13/26 Week 1 Ravens Ravens Colts Colts 41-23 48.5 Under Wrong
09/13/26 Week 1 Browns Browns Jaguars Jaguars 10-34 40.5 Over Correct
09/13/26 Week 1 Bears Bears Panthers Panthers 59-37 47.5 Under Wrong
09/13/26 Week 1 Buccaneers Buccaneers Bengals Bengals 27-33 50.5 Under Wrong
09/13/26 Week 1 Jets Jets Titans Titans 23-10 39.5 Over Wrong
09/10/26 Week 1 49ers 49ers Rams Rams 27-7 47.5 Under Correct
09/09/26 Week 1 Patriots Patriots Seahawks Seahawks 10-13 44.5 Under Correct
Season Summary 9-7-0