Predictions

Objective algorithmic probability outputs across spreads, totals, and win probabilities

42.6%
ATS Win Rate
vs Closing Lines
42.1% vs Opening Lines
61.7%
Accuracy
66-41
% of winners predicted
58.9%
Money Line Efficiency
vs Closing Lines
57.9% vs Opening Lines
53.7%
Over/Under Accuracy
58-50
totals projections

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2026

Season Summary

How our model's ATS projections actually fared in each situation — a retrospective record, not a forward prediction.

Model ATS Record

Type Record Accuracy
Favorite 27-31-2 46.7%
Underdog 16-28-4 37.5%
Even 0-0-0 --
Home 18-34-3 35.5%
Home Dog 10-14-1 42.0%
Net Unit Gain -19.9u

ATS Confidence

Confidence Record Accuracy
14-23-1 38.2%
15-10-2 59.3%
10-13-2 44.0%
3-11-1 23.3%
1-2-0 33.3%
Total 43-59-6 42.6%

Point Spread Range

Range Record Accuracy
Even - 2.5 13-12-0 52.0%
3 - 4 12-24-3 34.6%
4.5 - 5.5 7-5-0 58.3%
6 - 7 5-7-3 43.3%
7.5 - 9.5 5-6-0 45.5%
10+ 1-5-0 16.7%

Winner Confidence

Confidence Record Accuracy
11-4-0 73.3%
8-8-1 50.0%
15-14-0 51.7%
17-7-0 70.8%
15-8-0 65.2%
Total 66-41-1 61.7%

Money Line Value

Value Tier Record Accuracy
vs Closing Lines
High Value 25-22-0 53.2%
Med Value 9-3-0 75.0%
Small Value 9-6-0 60.0%
vs Opening Lines
High Value 27-19-0 58.7%
Med Value 6-7-0 46.2%
Small Value 11-6-0 64.7%

Over/Under Confidence

Confidence Record Accuracy
20-12-0 62.5%
20-19-0 51.3%
14-10-0 58.3%
4-8-0 33.3%
0-1-0 0.0%
Total 58-50-0 53.7%
By Direction
Over 33-27-0 55.0%
Under 25-23-0 52.1%

ATS Wins & Winner Accuracy, By Week

ATS Win Rate
Winner Accuracy
Favorite Win Rate

Over/Under Accuracy, Season to Date

O/U Accuracy (cumulative)
Coin flip (50%)
Range explained by chance

A total is set so that roughly half the games land each way, so there is no favored side to beat — the bar is the coin flip. The shaded range is where a result this far from 50% is still what chance produces for the number of games graded so far; it narrows as the season adds evidence. A line inside the band has not yet shown anything the total did not already price.

Game History

Correct Wrong Push
Date Week Visitor Home Score H Line Projected Confidence Result
10/29/26 Week 8 Panthers Panthers Packers Packers 19-27 -3.5 Panthers 2 Wrong
10/26/26 Week 7 Cowboys Cowboys Eagles Eagles 38-21 4.5 Eagles 1 Wrong
10/25/26 Week 7 Chiefs Chiefs Seahawks Seahawks 3-20 -3 Chiefs 5 Wrong
10/25/26 Week 7 Packers Packers Lions Lions 17-20 -3.5 Packers 3 Correct
10/25/26 Week 7 Rams Rams Raiders Raiders 35-21 3.5 Rams 1 Correct
10/25/26 Week 7 Broncos Broncos Cardinals Cardinals 30-16 4.5 Broncos 2 Correct
10/25/26 Week 7 49ers 49ers Falcons Falcons 20-29 2.5 49ers 2 Wrong
10/25/26 Week 7 Buccaneers Buccaneers Panthers Panthers 43-13 -3 Panthers 1 Wrong
10/25/26 Week 7 Giants Giants Texans Texans 27-21 -10 Texans 1 Wrong
10/25/26 Week 7 Colts Colts Vikings Vikings 10-16 -6.5 Colts 3 Correct
10/25/26 Week 7 Dolphins Dolphins Jets Jets 28-25 -3.5 Dolphins 2 Correct
10/25/26 Week 7 Browns Browns Titans Titans 27-24 1.5 Browns 5 Correct
10/25/26 Week 7 Bengals Bengals Ravens Ravens 35-13 3 Ravens 4 Wrong
10/25/26 Week 7 Steelers Steelers Saints Saints 16-10 3 Steelers 3 Correct
10/22/26 Week 7 Patriots Patriots Bears Bears 24-30 -3 Patriots 1 Wrong
10/19/26 Week 6 Commanders Commanders 49ers 49ers 17-23 -7.5 Commanders 3 Correct
10/18/26 Week 6 Cowboys Cowboys Packers Packers 13-23 1.5 Packers 3 Correct
10/18/26 Week 6 Chargers Chargers Chiefs Chiefs 6-22 -7.5 Chargers 1 Wrong
10/18/26 Week 6 Bills Bills Raiders Raiders 33-30 5.5 Raiders 2 Correct
10/18/26 Week 6 Cardinals Cardinals Rams Rams 18-16 -12.5 Rams 3 Wrong
10/18/26 Week 6 Bears Bears Falcons Falcons 31-23 1.5 Falcons 3 Wrong
10/18/26 Week 6 Ravens Ravens Browns Browns 10-13 3 Ravens 2 Wrong
10/18/26 Week 6 Titans Titans Colts Colts 26-20 -6.5 Colts 4 Wrong
10/18/26 Week 6 Jets Jets Patriots Patriots 19-26 -7.5 Jets 1 Correct
10/18/26 Week 6 Saints Saints Giants Giants 34-27 1.5 Giants 1 Wrong
10/18/26 Week 6 Panthers Panthers Eagles Eagles 25-14 3 Eagles 4 Wrong
10/18/26 Week 6 Steelers Steelers Buccaneers Buccaneers 26-19 2.5 Buccaneers 3 Wrong
10/18/26 Week 6 Texans Texans Jaguars Jaguars 34-31 -2.5 Jaguars 4 Wrong
10/15/26 Week 6 Seahawks Seahawks Broncos Broncos 14-17 2.5 Broncos 3 Correct
10/12/26 Week 5 Bills Bills Rams Rams 37-34 -3.5 Rams 3 Wrong
10/11/26 Week 5 Ravens Ravens Falcons Falcons 30-23 -3.5 Ravens 1 Correct
10/11/26 Week 5 Lions Lions Cardinals Cardinals 45-21 5.5 Cardinals 1 Wrong
10/11/26 Week 5 Bears Bears Packers Packers 7-31 -5.5 Packers 2 Correct
10/11/26 Week 5 49ers 49ers Seahawks Seahawks 32-29 -3 Seahawks 3 Wrong
10/11/26 Week 5 Broncos Broncos Chargers Chargers 23-17 3.5 Chargers 1 Wrong
10/11/26 Week 5 Vikings Vikings Saints Saints 23-13 2.5 Saints 4 Wrong
10/11/26 Week 5 Raiders Raiders Patriots Patriots 17-45 -3.5 Raiders 3 Wrong
10/11/26 Week 5 Browns Browns Jets Jets 12-17 -2.5 Browns 2 Wrong
10/11/26 Week 5 Texans Texans Titans Titans 26-3 6.5 Titans 2 Wrong
10/11/26 Week 5 Colts Colts Steelers Steelers 22-34 -3 Colts 1 Wrong
10/11/26 Week 5 Giants Giants Commanders Commanders 27-27 -3.5 Giants 2 Correct
10/11/26 Week 5 Bengals Bengals Dolphins Dolphins 31-24 7 Dolphins 4 Push
10/11/26 Week 5 Eagles Eagles Jaguars Jaguars 17-19 -7.5 Eagles 2 Correct
10/08/26 Week 5 Buccaneers Buccaneers Cowboys Cowboys 24-16 -9.5 Cowboys 1 Wrong
10/05/26 Week 4 Falcons Falcons Saints Saints 45-24 -1.5 Falcons 4 Correct
10/04/26 Week 4 Lions Lions Panthers Panthers 26-32 4.5 Panthers 1 Correct
10/04/26 Week 4 Chiefs Chiefs Raiders Raiders 30-27 5.5 Raiders 2 Correct
10/04/26 Week 4 Broncos Broncos 49ers 49ers 14-24 -3 Broncos 3 Wrong
10/04/26 Week 4 Chargers Chargers Seahawks Seahawks 23-30 -7 Chargers 2 Push
10/04/26 Week 4 Dolphins Dolphins Vikings Vikings 10-15 -10 Dolphins 1 Correct
10/04/26 Week 4 Patriots Patriots Bills Bills 29-26 -7 Bills 4 Wrong
10/04/26 Week 4 Jets Jets Bears Bears 12-23 -3.5 Jets 2 Wrong
10/04/26 Week 4 Jaguars Jaguars Bengals Bengals 22-17 -2.5 Jaguars 1 Correct
10/04/26 Week 4 Cowboys Cowboys Texans Texans 34-30 -3 Texans 3 Wrong
10/04/26 Week 4 Cardinals Cardinals Giants Giants 24-36 2.5 Cardinals 3 Wrong
10/04/26 Week 4 Rams Rams Eagles Eagles 24-20 3.5 Eagles 2 Wrong
10/04/26 Week 4 Titans Titans Ravens Ravens 18-24 -11.5 Ravens 1 Wrong
10/04/26 Week 4 Packers Packers Buccaneers Buccaneers 17-14 3 Packers 2 Push
10/04/26 Week 4 Colts Colts Commanders Commanders 30-13 4.5 Colts 3 Correct
10/01/26 Week 4 Steelers Steelers Browns Browns 24-27 2.5 Browns 2 Correct
09/28/26 Week 3 Eagles Eagles Bears Bears 7-27 3.5 Bears 3 Correct
09/27/26 Week 3 Rams Rams Broncos Broncos 26-30 1.5 Broncos 2 Correct
09/27/26 Week 3 Raiders Raiders Saints Saints 35-27 -3.5 Raiders 1 Correct
09/27/26 Week 3 Ravens Ravens Cowboys Cowboys 34-31 3 Ravens 1 Push
09/27/26 Week 3 Cardinals Cardinals 49ers 49ers 30-36 -7.5 49ers 1 Wrong
09/27/26 Week 3 Vikings Vikings Buccaneers Buccaneers 23-16 -1.5 Buccaneers 3 Wrong
09/27/26 Week 3 Chargers Chargers Bills Bills 16-24 -7 Chargers 4 Wrong
09/27/26 Week 3 Panthers Panthers Browns Browns 18-21 2.5 Browns 1 Correct
09/27/26 Week 3 Texans Texans Colts Colts 17-19 1.5 Texans 4 Wrong
09/27/26 Week 3 Patriots Patriots Jaguars Jaguars 6-35 -3 Jaguars 4 Correct
09/27/26 Week 3 Chiefs Chiefs Dolphins Dolphins 24-10 10 Dolphins 4 Wrong
09/27/26 Week 3 Titans Titans Giants Giants 7-12 -2.5 Titans 4 Wrong
09/27/26 Week 3 Bengals Bengals Steelers Steelers 27-30 3.5 Bengals 1 Wrong
09/27/26 Week 3 Seahawks Seahawks Commanders Commanders 31-33 8.5 Seahawks 2 Wrong
09/27/26 Week 3 Jets Jets Lions Lions 24-31 -7 Lions 3 Push
09/24/26 Week 3 Falcons Falcons Packers Packers 35-14 -4.5 Packers 1 Wrong
09/21/26 Week 2 Giants Giants Rams Rams 6-28 -6.5 Rams 2 Correct
09/20/26 Week 2 Colts Colts Chiefs Chiefs 30-33 -6 Colts 4 Correct
09/20/26 Week 2 Seahawks Seahawks Cardinals Cardinals 31-7 3.5 Cardinals 1 Wrong
09/20/26 Week 2 Commanders Commanders Cowboys Cowboys 20-37 -3.5 Commanders 3 Wrong
09/20/26 Week 2 Dolphins Dolphins 49ers 49ers 13-35 -12.5 Dolphins 5 Wrong
09/20/26 Week 2 Jaguars Jaguars Broncos Broncos 13-20 -2.5 Broncos 2 Correct
09/20/26 Week 2 Raiders Raiders Chargers Chargers 26-14 -6.5 Chargers 1 Wrong
09/20/26 Week 2 Panthers Panthers Falcons Falcons 34-3 2.5 Panthers 2 Correct
09/20/26 Week 2 Vikings Vikings Bears Bears 9-3 -4.5 Bears 1 Wrong
09/20/26 Week 2 Bengals Bengals Texans Texans 20-6 -3 Bengals 1 Correct
09/20/26 Week 2 Steelers Steelers Patriots Patriots 3-20 -4.5 Patriots 1 Correct
09/20/26 Week 2 Packers Packers Jets Jets 20-17 3.5 Packers 3 Wrong
09/20/26 Week 2 Eagles Eagles Titans Titans 24-20 7 Titans 2 Correct
09/20/26 Week 2 Saints Saints Ravens Ravens 24-17 -8.5 Ravens 4 Wrong
09/20/26 Week 2 Browns Browns Buccaneers Buccaneers 23-19 -8.5 Browns 2 Correct
09/17/26 Week 2 Lions Lions Bills Bills 31-41 -5.5 Lions 1 Wrong
09/14/26 Week 1 Broncos Broncos Chiefs Chiefs 10-31 -2.5 Chiefs 3 Correct
09/13/26 Week 1 Cowboys Cowboys Giants Giants 20-28 3 Cowboys 1 Wrong
09/13/26 Week 1 Packers Packers Vikings Vikings 22-39 -2.5 Vikings 1 Correct
09/13/26 Week 1 Dolphins Dolphins Raiders Raiders 13-27 -3 Dolphins 1 Wrong
09/13/26 Week 1 Commanders Commanders Eagles Eagles 22-24 -6 Commanders 1 Correct
09/13/26 Week 1 Cardinals Cardinals Chargers Chargers 26-14 -8.5 Chargers 3 Wrong
09/13/26 Week 1 Bills Bills Texans Texans 36-31 1.5 Bills 1 Correct
09/13/26 Week 1 Ravens Ravens Colts Colts 41-23 3 Colts 1 Wrong
09/13/26 Week 1 Bears Bears Panthers Panthers 59-37 3 Bears 1 Correct
09/13/26 Week 1 Falcons Falcons Steelers Steelers 13-20 -6.5 Falcons 2 Wrong
09/13/26 Week 1 Browns Browns Jaguars Jaguars 10-34 -8.5 Jaguars 3 Correct
09/13/26 Week 1 Jets Jets Titans Titans 23-10 -1.5 Titans 2 Wrong
09/13/26 Week 1 Saints Saints Lions Lions 30-31 -7 Lions 1 Wrong
09/13/26 Week 1 Buccaneers Buccaneers Bengals Bengals 27-33 -3.5 Buccaneers 1 Wrong
09/10/26 Week 1 49ers 49ers Rams Rams 27-7 -3.5 49ers 2 Correct
09/09/26 Week 1 Patriots Patriots Seahawks Seahawks 10-13 -3 Seahawks 3 Push
Season Summary 43-59-6
Date Week Visitor Home Score Projected Probability Confidence Result
10/29/26 Week 8 Panthers Panthers Packers Packers 19-27 Packers 71.7% 4 Correct
10/26/26 Week 7 Cowboys Cowboys Eagles Eagles 38-21 Cowboys 69.5% 3 Correct
10/25/26 Week 7 Chiefs Chiefs Seahawks Seahawks 3-20 Seahawks 71.1% 4 Correct
10/25/26 Week 7 Packers Packers Lions Lions 17-20 Lions 50.8% 1 Correct
10/25/26 Week 7 Rams Rams Raiders Raiders 35-21 Rams 71.5% 4 Correct
10/25/26 Week 7 Broncos Broncos Cardinals Cardinals 30-16 Broncos 70.5% 4 Correct
10/25/26 Week 7 49ers 49ers Falcons Falcons 20-29 49ers 53.0% 1 Wrong
10/25/26 Week 7 Buccaneers Buccaneers Panthers Panthers 43-13 Panthers 84.8% 5 Wrong
10/25/26 Week 7 Giants Giants Texans Texans 27-21 Texans 78.7% 5 Wrong
10/25/26 Week 7 Colts Colts Vikings Vikings 10-16 Vikings 57.4% 2 Correct
10/25/26 Week 7 Dolphins Dolphins Jets Jets 28-25 Dolphins 54.7% 1 Correct
10/25/26 Week 7 Browns Browns Titans Titans 27-24 Browns 57.6% 2 Correct
10/25/26 Week 7 Bengals Bengals Ravens Ravens 35-13 Bengals 64.4% 3 Correct
10/25/26 Week 7 Steelers Steelers Saints Saints 16-10 Steelers 78.5% 5 Correct
10/22/26 Week 7 Patriots Patriots Bears Bears 24-30 Bears 71.4% 4 Correct
10/19/26 Week 6 Commanders Commanders 49ers 49ers 17-23 49ers 74.6% 4 Correct
10/18/26 Week 6 Cowboys Cowboys Packers Packers 13-23 Cowboys 55.5% 1 Wrong
10/18/26 Week 6 Chargers Chargers Chiefs Chiefs 6-22 Chiefs 52.4% 1 Correct
10/18/26 Week 6 Bills Bills Raiders Raiders 33-30 Bills 88.0% 5 Correct
10/18/26 Week 6 Cardinals Cardinals Rams Rams 18-16 Rams 83.8% 5 Wrong
10/18/26 Week 6 Bears Bears Falcons Falcons 31-23 Bears 69.9% 4 Correct
10/18/26 Week 6 Ravens Ravens Browns Browns 10-13 Ravens 76.9% 4 Wrong
10/18/26 Week 6 Titans Titans Colts Colts 26-20 Colts 66.2% 3 Wrong
10/18/26 Week 6 Jets Jets Patriots Patriots 19-26 Patriots 74.3% 4 Correct
10/18/26 Week 6 Saints Saints Giants Giants 34-27 Saints 56.0% 1 Correct
10/18/26 Week 6 Panthers Panthers Eagles Eagles 25-14 Panthers 67.1% 3 Correct
10/18/26 Week 6 Steelers Steelers Buccaneers Buccaneers 26-19 Buccaneers 54.0% 1 Wrong
10/18/26 Week 6 Texans Texans Jaguars Jaguars 34-31 Jaguars 63.9% 3 Wrong
10/15/26 Week 6 Seahawks Seahawks Broncos Broncos 14-17 Seahawks 61.4% 2 Wrong
10/12/26 Week 5 Bills Bills Rams Rams 37-34 Rams 65.7% 3 Wrong
10/11/26 Week 5 Ravens Ravens Falcons Falcons 30-23 Falcons 67.1% 3 Wrong
10/11/26 Week 5 Lions Lions Cardinals Cardinals 45-21 Lions 74.3% 4 Correct
10/11/26 Week 5 Bears Bears Packers Packers 7-31 Bears 60.2% 2 Wrong
10/11/26 Week 5 49ers 49ers Seahawks Seahawks 32-29 Seahawks 64.4% 3 Wrong
10/11/26 Week 5 Broncos Broncos Chargers Chargers 23-17 Broncos 73.8% 4 Correct
10/11/26 Week 5 Bengals Bengals Dolphins Dolphins 31-24 Bengals 69.5% 3 Correct
10/11/26 Week 5 Vikings Vikings Saints Saints 23-13 Vikings 68.9% 3 Correct
10/11/26 Week 5 Raiders Raiders Patriots Patriots 17-45 Patriots 81.4% 5 Correct
10/11/26 Week 5 Browns Browns Jets Jets 12-17 Jets 76.2% 4 Correct
10/11/26 Week 5 Texans Texans Titans Titans 26-3 Texans 80.5% 5 Correct
10/11/26 Week 5 Colts Colts Steelers Steelers 22-34 Steelers 58.0% 2 Correct
10/11/26 Week 5 Giants Giants Commanders Commanders 27-27 Giants 61.9% 2 Push
10/11/26 Week 5 Eagles Eagles Jaguars Jaguars 17-19 Jaguars 77.7% 4 Correct
10/08/26 Week 5 Buccaneers Buccaneers Cowboys Cowboys 24-16 Cowboys 78.4% 5 Wrong
10/05/26 Week 4 Falcons Falcons Saints Saints 45-24 Saints 68.5% 3 Wrong
10/04/26 Week 4 Lions Lions Panthers Panthers 26-32 Lions 66.6% 3 Wrong
10/04/26 Week 4 Chiefs Chiefs Raiders Raiders 30-27 Chiefs 69.6% 3 Correct
10/04/26 Week 4 Chargers Chargers Seahawks Seahawks 23-30 Seahawks 81.8% 5 Correct
10/04/26 Week 4 Broncos Broncos 49ers 49ers 14-24 Broncos 58.6% 2 Wrong
10/04/26 Week 4 Dolphins Dolphins Vikings Vikings 10-15 Vikings 87.8% 5 Correct
10/04/26 Week 4 Patriots Patriots Bills Bills 29-26 Bills 76.5% 4 Wrong
10/04/26 Week 4 Jets Jets Bears Bears 12-23 Bears 56.1% 1 Correct
10/04/26 Week 4 Jaguars Jaguars Bengals Bengals 22-17 Bengals 65.7% 3 Wrong
10/04/26 Week 4 Cowboys Cowboys Texans Texans 34-30 Cowboys 55.6% 1 Correct
10/04/26 Week 4 Cardinals Cardinals Giants Giants 24-36 Cardinals 66.2% 3 Wrong
10/04/26 Week 4 Rams Rams Eagles Eagles 24-20 Rams 67.3% 3 Correct
10/04/26 Week 4 Titans Titans Ravens Ravens 18-24 Ravens 92.8% 5 Correct
10/04/26 Week 4 Packers Packers Buccaneers Buccaneers 17-14 Packers 69.5% 3 Correct
10/04/26 Week 4 Colts Colts Commanders Commanders 30-13 Colts 66.0% 3 Correct
10/01/26 Week 4 Steelers Steelers Browns Browns 24-27 Steelers 65.8% 3 Wrong
09/28/26 Week 3 Eagles Eagles Bears Bears 7-27 Eagles 75.7% 4 Wrong
09/27/26 Week 3 Rams Rams Broncos Broncos 26-30 Rams 71.4% 4 Wrong
09/27/26 Week 3 Ravens Ravens Cowboys Cowboys 34-31 Ravens 57.6% 2 Correct
09/27/26 Week 3 Raiders Raiders Saints Saints 35-27 Saints 84.1% 5 Wrong
09/27/26 Week 3 Cardinals Cardinals 49ers 49ers 30-36 49ers 55.8% 1 Correct
09/27/26 Week 3 Vikings Vikings Buccaneers Buccaneers 23-16 Vikings 57.1% 2 Correct
09/27/26 Week 3 Chargers Chargers Bills Bills 16-24 Bills 87.2% 5 Correct
09/27/26 Week 3 Panthers Panthers Browns Browns 18-21 Browns 51.8% 1 Correct
09/27/26 Week 3 Texans Texans Colts Colts 17-19 Texans 65.4% 3 Wrong
09/27/26 Week 3 Jets Jets Lions Lions 24-31 Lions 82.7% 5 Correct
09/27/26 Week 3 Patriots Patriots Jaguars Jaguars 6-35 Jaguars 56.1% 1 Correct
09/27/26 Week 3 Chiefs Chiefs Dolphins Dolphins 24-10 Chiefs 96.4% 5 Correct
09/27/26 Week 3 Titans Titans Giants Giants 7-12 Giants 54.6% 1 Correct
09/27/26 Week 3 Bengals Bengals Steelers Steelers 27-30 Bengals 78.9% 5 Wrong
09/27/26 Week 3 Seahawks Seahawks Commanders Commanders 31-33 Seahawks 67.1% 3 Wrong
09/24/26 Week 3 Falcons Falcons Packers Packers 35-14 Packers 79.4% 5 Wrong
09/21/26 Week 2 Giants Giants Rams Rams 6-28 Rams 64.1% 3 Correct
09/20/26 Week 2 Colts Colts Chiefs Chiefs 30-33 Chiefs 83.9% 5 Correct
09/20/26 Week 2 Seahawks Seahawks Cardinals Cardinals 31-7 Seahawks 62.8% 3 Correct
09/20/26 Week 2 Commanders Commanders Cowboys Cowboys 20-37 Cowboys 57.6% 2 Correct
09/20/26 Week 2 Dolphins Dolphins 49ers 49ers 13-35 49ers 87.4% 5 Correct
09/20/26 Week 2 Jaguars Jaguars Broncos Broncos 13-20 Jaguars 56.3% 2 Wrong
09/20/26 Week 2 Raiders Raiders Chargers Chargers 26-14 Chargers 60.5% 2 Wrong
09/20/26 Week 2 Panthers Panthers Falcons Falcons 34-3 Panthers 63.7% 3 Correct
09/20/26 Week 2 Vikings Vikings Bears Bears 9-3 Bears 78.1% 4 Wrong
09/20/26 Week 2 Bengals Bengals Texans Texans 20-6 Texans 61.5% 2 Wrong
09/20/26 Week 2 Steelers Steelers Patriots Patriots 3-20 Patriots 65.4% 3 Correct
09/20/26 Week 2 Packers Packers Jets Jets 20-17 Packers 57.9% 2 Correct
09/20/26 Week 2 Eagles Eagles Titans Titans 24-20 Eagles 85.3% 5 Correct
09/20/26 Week 2 Saints Saints Ravens Ravens 24-17 Ravens 65.3% 3 Wrong
09/20/26 Week 2 Browns Browns Buccaneers Buccaneers 23-19 Buccaneers 74.0% 4 Wrong
09/17/26 Week 2 Lions Lions Bills Bills 31-41 Bills 70.7% 4 Correct
09/14/26 Week 1 Broncos Broncos Chiefs Chiefs 10-31 Chiefs 61.8% 2 Correct
09/13/26 Week 1 Cowboys Cowboys Giants Giants 20-28 Cowboys 75.0% 4 Wrong
09/13/26 Week 1 Commanders Commanders Eagles Eagles 22-24 Eagles 85.6% 5 Correct
09/13/26 Week 1 Dolphins Dolphins Raiders Raiders 13-27 Dolphins 55.5% 1 Wrong
09/13/26 Week 1 Packers Packers Vikings Vikings 22-39 Packers 58.8% 2 Wrong
09/13/26 Week 1 Cardinals Cardinals Chargers Chargers 26-14 Chargers 86.4% 5 Wrong
09/13/26 Week 1 Buccaneers Buccaneers Bengals Bengals 27-33 Bengals 78.1% 4 Correct
09/13/26 Week 1 Jets Jets Titans Titans 23-10 Jets 74.3% 4 Correct
09/13/26 Week 1 Bills Bills Texans Texans 36-31 Texans 61.7% 2 Wrong
09/13/26 Week 1 Falcons Falcons Steelers Steelers 13-20 Steelers 81.5% 5 Correct
09/13/26 Week 1 Bears Bears Panthers Panthers 59-37 Bears 75.6% 4 Correct
09/13/26 Week 1 Ravens Ravens Colts Colts 41-23 Ravens 65.5% 3 Correct
09/13/26 Week 1 Saints Saints Lions Lions 30-31 Lions 72.5% 4 Correct
09/13/26 Week 1 Browns Browns Jaguars Jaguars 10-34 Jaguars 51.8% 1 Correct
09/10/26 Week 1 49ers 49ers Rams Rams 27-7 Rams 69.1% 3 Wrong
09/09/26 Week 1 Patriots Patriots Seahawks Seahawks 10-13 Seahawks 66.8% 3 Correct
Season Summary 66-41-1
Date Week Visitor Home Score ML Odds EV Value Tier Projected Result
10/29/26 Week 8 Panthers Panthers Packers Packers 19-27 -185 +10.49% High Packers Correct
10/26/26 Week 7 Cowboys Cowboys Eagles Eagles 38-21 -225 +0.43% Small Cowboys Correct
10/25/26 Week 7 Chiefs Chiefs Seahawks Seahawks 3-20 -162 +14.99% High Seahawks Correct
10/25/26 Week 7 Rams Rams Raiders Raiders 35-21 -192 +8.67% Medium Rams Correct
10/25/26 Week 7 Broncos Broncos Cardinals Cardinals 30-16 -238 +0.06% Small Broncos Correct
10/25/26 Week 7 Buccaneers Buccaneers Panthers Panthers 43-13 -166 +35.96% High Panthers Wrong
10/25/26 Week 7 Dolphins Dolphins Jets Jets 28-25 +180 +53.22% High Dolphins Correct
10/25/26 Week 7 Browns Browns Titans Titans 27-24 -130 +1.89% Small Browns Correct
10/25/26 Week 7 Bengals Bengals Ravens Ravens 35-13 -162 +4.14% Small Bengals Correct
10/25/26 Week 7 Steelers Steelers Saints Saints 16-10 -166 +25.75% High Steelers Correct
10/22/26 Week 7 Patriots Patriots Bears Bears 24-30 -148 +19.68% High Bears Correct
10/18/26 Week 6 Cowboys Cowboys Packers Packers 13-23 -115 +3.68% Small Cowboys Wrong
10/18/26 Week 6 Bills Bills Raiders Raiders 33-30 -238 +25.00% High Bills Correct
10/18/26 Week 6 Bears Bears Falcons Falcons 31-23 -118 +29.18% High Bears Correct
10/18/26 Week 6 Ravens Ravens Browns Browns 10-13 -170 +22.12% High Ravens Wrong
10/18/26 Week 6 Saints Saints Giants Giants 34-27 -108 +7.89% Medium Saints Correct
10/18/26 Week 6 Panthers Panthers Eagles Eagles 25-14 -155 +10.47% High Panthers Correct
10/18/26 Week 6 Steelers Steelers Buccaneers Buccaneers 26-19 +114 +15.60% High Buccaneers Wrong
10/18/26 Week 6 Texans Texans Jaguars Jaguars 34-31 -142 +8.96% Medium Jaguars Wrong
10/15/26 Week 6 Seahawks Seahawks Broncos Broncos 14-17 -155 +1.09% Small Seahawks Wrong
10/12/26 Week 5 Bills Bills Rams Rams 37-34 -185 +1.14% Small Rams Wrong
10/11/26 Week 5 Ravens Ravens Falcons Falcons 30-23 -175 +5.47% Medium Falcons Wrong
10/11/26 Week 5 Lions Lions Cardinals Cardinals 45-21 -265 +2.28% Small Lions Correct
10/11/26 Week 5 Bears Bears Packers Packers 7-31 +193 +76.24% High Bears Wrong
10/11/26 Week 5 49ers 49ers Seahawks Seahawks 32-29 -166 +3.25% Small Seahawks Wrong
10/11/26 Week 5 Broncos Broncos Chargers Chargers 23-17 -180 +14.74% High Broncos Correct
10/11/26 Week 5 Vikings Vikings Saints Saints 23-13 -142 +17.45% High Vikings Correct
10/11/26 Week 5 Raiders Raiders Patriots Patriots 17-45 -180 +26.56% High Patriots Correct
10/11/26 Week 5 Browns Browns Jets Jets 12-17 -142 +29.87% High Jets Correct
10/11/26 Week 5 Texans Texans Titans Titans 26-3 -310 +6.43% Medium Texans Correct
10/11/26 Week 5 Giants Giants Commanders Commanders 27-27 +150 +54.63% High Giants Push
10/05/26 Week 4 Falcons Falcons Saints Saints 45-24 -115 +28.10% High Saints Wrong
10/04/26 Week 4 Chargers Chargers Seahawks Seahawks 23-30 -340 +5.87% Medium Seahawks Correct
10/04/26 Week 4 Broncos Broncos 49ers 49ers 14-24 +140 +40.71% High Broncos Wrong
10/04/26 Week 4 Dolphins Dolphins Vikings Vikings 10-15 -535 +4.16% Small Vikings Correct
10/04/26 Week 4 Jaguars Jaguars Bengals Bengals 22-17 -148 +10.07% High Bengals Wrong
10/04/26 Week 4 Cowboys Cowboys Texans Texans 34-30 +130 +27.90% High Cowboys Correct
10/04/26 Week 4 Cardinals Cardinals Giants Giants 24-36 -135 +15.22% High Cardinals Wrong
10/04/26 Week 4 Rams Rams Eagles Eagles 24-20 -198 +1.35% Small Rams Correct
10/04/26 Week 4 Titans Titans Ravens Ravens 18-24 -800 +4.42% Small Ravens Correct
10/04/26 Week 4 Packers Packers Buccaneers Buccaneers 17-14 -155 +14.41% High Packers Correct
10/01/26 Week 4 Steelers Steelers Browns Browns 24-27 -148 +10.21% High Steelers Wrong
09/28/26 Week 3 Eagles Eagles Bears Bears 7-27 -198 +13.87% High Eagles Wrong
09/27/26 Week 3 Rams Rams Broncos Broncos 26-30 -110 +36.26% High Rams Wrong
09/27/26 Week 3 Raiders Raiders Saints Saints 35-27 -218 +22.72% High Saints Wrong
09/27/26 Week 3 Vikings Vikings Buccaneers Buccaneers 23-16 -108 +10.04% High Vikings Correct
09/27/26 Week 3 Chargers Chargers Bills Bills 16-24 -325 +14.05% High Bills Correct
09/27/26 Week 3 Panthers Panthers Browns Browns 18-21 +114 +10.76% High Browns Correct
09/27/26 Week 3 Texans Texans Colts Colts 17-19 -122 +18.94% High Texans Wrong
09/27/26 Week 3 Jets Jets Lions Lions 24-31 -325 +8.16% Medium Lions Correct
09/27/26 Week 3 Chiefs Chiefs Dolphins Dolphins 24-10 -600 +12.51% High Chiefs Correct
09/27/26 Week 3 Bengals Bengals Steelers Steelers 27-30 -180 +22.78% High Bengals Wrong
09/24/26 Week 3 Falcons Falcons Packers Packers 35-14 -230 +13.97% High Packers Wrong
09/20/26 Week 2 Colts Colts Chiefs Chiefs 30-33 -265 +15.54% High Chiefs Correct
09/20/26 Week 2 Jaguars Jaguars Broncos Broncos 13-20 +124 +26.13% High Jaguars Wrong
09/20/26 Week 2 Panthers Panthers Falcons Falcons 34-3 -142 +8.58% Medium Panthers Correct
09/20/26 Week 2 Vikings Vikings Bears Bears 9-3 -218 +13.96% High Bears Wrong
09/20/26 Week 2 Bengals Bengals Texans Texans 20-6 -148 +2.98% Small Texans Wrong
09/20/26 Week 2 Eagles Eagles Titans Titans 24-20 -325 +11.56% High Eagles Correct
09/17/26 Week 2 Lions Lions Bills Bills 31-41 -238 +0.42% Small Bills Correct
09/14/26 Week 1 Broncos Broncos Chiefs Chiefs 10-31 -130 +9.38% Medium Chiefs Correct
09/13/26 Week 1 Cowboys Cowboys Giants Giants 20-28 -166 +20.24% High Cowboys Wrong
09/13/26 Week 1 Packers Packers Vikings Vikings 22-39 +120 +29.31% High Packers Wrong
09/13/26 Week 1 Dolphins Dolphins Raiders Raiders 13-27 +142 +34.31% High Dolphins Wrong
09/13/26 Week 1 Cardinals Cardinals Chargers Chargers 26-14 -455 +5.45% Medium Chargers Wrong
09/13/26 Week 1 Commanders Commanders Eagles Eagles 22-24 -245 +20.48% High Eagles Correct
09/13/26 Week 1 Buccaneers Buccaneers Bengals Bengals 27-33 -205 +16.18% High Bengals Correct
09/13/26 Week 1 Ravens Ravens Colts Colts 41-23 -162 +5.96% Medium Ravens Correct
09/13/26 Week 1 Jets Jets Titans Titans 23-10 -102 +47.07% High Jets Correct
09/13/26 Week 1 Bills Bills Texans Texans 36-31 -108 +18.76% High Texans Wrong
09/13/26 Week 1 Falcons Falcons Steelers Steelers 13-20 -298 +8.91% Medium Steelers Correct
09/13/26 Week 1 Bears Bears Panthers Panthers 59-37 -166 +21.08% High Bears Correct
09/10/26 Week 1 49ers 49ers Rams Rams 27-7 -218 +0.75% Small Rams Wrong
09/09/26 Week 1 Patriots Patriots Seahawks Seahawks 10-13 -143 +13.46% High Seahawks Correct
Season Summary 43-30-1
Date Week Visitor Home Score Total Projected Confidence Result
10/29/26 Week 8 Panthers Panthers Packers Packers 19-27 47.5 Over 2 Wrong
10/26/26 Week 7 Cowboys Cowboys Eagles Eagles 38-21 43.5 Under 1 Wrong
10/25/26 Week 7 Chiefs Chiefs Seahawks Seahawks 3-20 43.5 Under 2 Correct
10/25/26 Week 7 Packers Packers Lions Lions 17-20 55.5 Over 2 Wrong
10/25/26 Week 7 Rams Rams Raiders Raiders 35-21 49.5 Over 3 Correct
10/25/26 Week 7 Broncos Broncos Cardinals Cardinals 30-16 44.5 Under 2 Wrong
10/25/26 Week 7 49ers 49ers Falcons Falcons 20-29 49.5 Under 3 Correct
10/25/26 Week 7 Buccaneers Buccaneers Panthers Panthers 43-13 44.5 Under 4 Wrong
10/25/26 Week 7 Giants Giants Texans Texans 27-21 42.5 Under 3 Wrong
10/25/26 Week 7 Colts Colts Vikings Vikings 10-16 41.5 Over 4 Wrong
10/25/26 Week 7 Dolphins Dolphins Jets Jets 28-25 39.5 Under 2 Wrong
10/25/26 Week 7 Browns Browns Titans Titans 27-24 36.5 Over 2 Correct
10/25/26 Week 7 Bengals Bengals Ravens Ravens 35-13 46.5 Over 2 Correct
10/25/26 Week 7 Steelers Steelers Saints Saints 16-10 43.5 Over 1 Wrong
10/22/26 Week 7 Patriots Patriots Bears Bears 24-30 50.5 Over 2 Correct
10/19/26 Week 6 Commanders Commanders 49ers 49ers 17-23 52.5 Over 2 Wrong
10/18/26 Week 6 Cowboys Cowboys Packers Packers 13-23 54.5 Over 2 Wrong
10/18/26 Week 6 Chargers Chargers Chiefs Chiefs 6-22 41.5 Under 3 Correct
10/18/26 Week 6 Bills Bills Raiders Raiders 33-30 53.5 Over 4 Correct
10/18/26 Week 6 Cardinals Cardinals Rams Rams 18-16 51.5 Over 3 Wrong
10/18/26 Week 6 Bears Bears Falcons Falcons 31-23 51.5 Over 3 Correct
10/18/26 Week 6 Ravens Ravens Browns Browns 10-13 39.5 Under 1 Correct
10/18/26 Week 6 Titans Titans Colts Colts 26-20 43.5 Under 4 Wrong
10/18/26 Week 6 Jets Jets Patriots Patriots 19-26 43.5 Under 1 Wrong
10/18/26 Week 6 Saints Saints Giants Giants 34-27 46.5 Over 1 Correct
10/18/26 Week 6 Panthers Panthers Eagles Eagles 25-14 39.5 Over 1 Wrong
10/18/26 Week 6 Steelers Steelers Buccaneers Buccaneers 26-19 37.5 Under 1 Wrong
10/18/26 Week 6 Texans Texans Jaguars Jaguars 34-31 42.5 Under 2 Wrong
10/15/26 Week 6 Seahawks Seahawks Broncos Broncos 14-17 40.5 Over 2 Wrong
10/12/26 Week 5 Bills Bills Rams Rams 37-34 55.5 Over 2 Correct
10/11/26 Week 5 Ravens Ravens Falcons Falcons 30-23 44.5 Under 2 Wrong
10/11/26 Week 5 Lions Lions Cardinals Cardinals 45-21 55.5 Over 3 Correct
10/11/26 Week 5 Bears Bears Packers Packers 7-31 47.5 Over 1 Wrong
10/11/26 Week 5 49ers 49ers Seahawks Seahawks 32-29 46.5 Over 1 Correct
10/11/26 Week 5 Broncos Broncos Chargers Chargers 23-17 42.5 Under 1 Correct
10/11/26 Week 5 Bengals Bengals Dolphins Dolphins 31-24 44.5 Under 1 Wrong
10/11/26 Week 5 Vikings Vikings Saints Saints 23-13 41.5 Over 2 Wrong
10/11/26 Week 5 Raiders Raiders Patriots Patriots 17-45 45.5 Under 3 Wrong
10/11/26 Week 5 Browns Browns Jets Jets 12-17 38.5 Under 2 Correct
10/11/26 Week 5 Texans Texans Titans Titans 26-3 37.5 Over 2 Wrong
10/11/26 Week 5 Colts Colts Steelers Steelers 22-34 41.5 Under 3 Wrong
10/11/26 Week 5 Giants Giants Commanders Commanders 27-27 41.5 Over 2 Correct
10/11/26 Week 5 Eagles Eagles Jaguars Jaguars 17-19 41.5 Under 1 Correct
10/08/26 Week 5 Buccaneers Buccaneers Cowboys Cowboys 24-16 49.5 Over 4 Wrong
10/05/26 Week 4 Falcons Falcons Saints Saints 45-24 47.5 Over 2 Correct
10/04/26 Week 4 Lions Lions Panthers Panthers 26-32 52.5 Over 3 Correct
10/04/26 Week 4 Chiefs Chiefs Raiders Raiders 30-27 46.5 Over 3 Correct
10/04/26 Week 4 Chargers Chargers Seahawks Seahawks 23-30 42.5 Over 3 Correct
10/04/26 Week 4 Broncos Broncos 49ers 49ers 14-24 48.5 Under 2 Correct
10/04/26 Week 4 Dolphins Dolphins Vikings Vikings 10-15 38.5 Under 2 Correct
10/04/26 Week 4 Patriots Patriots Bills Bills 29-26 49.5 Over 1 Correct
10/04/26 Week 4 Jets Jets Bears Bears 12-23 43.5 Over 2 Wrong
10/04/26 Week 4 Jaguars Jaguars Bengals Bengals 22-17 51.5 Over 1 Wrong
10/04/26 Week 4 Cowboys Cowboys Texans Texans 34-30 48.5 Over 4 Correct
10/04/26 Week 4 Cardinals Cardinals Giants Giants 24-36 44.5 Under 1 Wrong
10/04/26 Week 4 Rams Rams Eagles Eagles 24-20 42.5 Over 3 Correct
10/04/26 Week 4 Titans Titans Ravens Ravens 18-24 42.5 Over 4 Wrong
10/04/26 Week 4 Packers Packers Buccaneers Buccaneers 17-14 38.5 Under 1 Correct
10/04/26 Week 4 Colts Colts Commanders Commanders 30-13 46.5 Over 1 Wrong
10/01/26 Week 4 Steelers Steelers Browns Browns 24-27 38.5 Over 1 Correct
09/28/26 Week 3 Eagles Eagles Bears Bears 7-27 42.5 Under 2 Correct
09/27/26 Week 3 Rams Rams Broncos Broncos 26-30 43.5 Over 1 Correct
09/27/26 Week 3 Ravens Ravens Cowboys Cowboys 34-31 54.5 Under 4 Wrong
09/27/26 Week 3 Raiders Raiders Saints Saints 35-27 43.5 Under 3 Wrong
09/27/26 Week 3 Cardinals Cardinals 49ers 49ers 30-36 48.5 Over 2 Correct
09/27/26 Week 3 Vikings Vikings Buccaneers Buccaneers 23-16 42.5 Over 2 Wrong
09/27/26 Week 3 Chargers Chargers Bills Bills 16-24 50.5 Under 1 Correct
09/27/26 Week 3 Panthers Panthers Browns Browns 18-21 41.5 Under 3 Correct
09/27/26 Week 3 Texans Texans Colts Colts 17-19 41.5 Under 2 Correct
09/27/26 Week 3 Jets Jets Lions Lions 24-31 49.5 Over 3 Correct
09/27/26 Week 3 Patriots Patriots Jaguars Jaguars 6-35 46.5 Over 3 Wrong
09/27/26 Week 3 Chiefs Chiefs Dolphins Dolphins 24-10 45.5 Under 2 Correct
09/27/26 Week 3 Titans Titans Giants Giants 7-12 37.5 Under 3 Correct
09/27/26 Week 3 Bengals Bengals Steelers Steelers 27-30 42.5 Under 2 Wrong
09/27/26 Week 3 Seahawks Seahawks Commanders Commanders 31-33 40.5 Under 4 Wrong
09/24/26 Week 3 Falcons Falcons Packers Packers 35-14 42.5 Over 2 Correct
09/21/26 Week 2 Giants Giants Rams Rams 6-28 47.5 Over 2 Wrong
09/20/26 Week 2 Colts Colts Chiefs Chiefs 30-33 46.5 Over 2 Correct
09/20/26 Week 2 Seahawks Seahawks Cardinals Cardinals 31-7 40.5 Over 1 Wrong
09/20/26 Week 2 Commanders Commanders Cowboys Cowboys 20-37 51.5 Over 2 Correct
09/20/26 Week 2 Dolphins Dolphins 49ers 49ers 13-35 44.5 Over 1 Correct
09/20/26 Week 2 Jaguars Jaguars Broncos Broncos 13-20 45.5 Over 3 Wrong
09/20/26 Week 2 Raiders Raiders Chargers Chargers 26-14 43.5 Under 1 Correct
09/20/26 Week 2 Panthers Panthers Falcons Falcons 34-3 43.5 Under 1 Correct
09/20/26 Week 2 Vikings Vikings Bears Bears 9-3 46.5 Under 4 Correct
09/20/26 Week 2 Bengals Bengals Texans Texans 20-6 45.5 Under 3 Correct
09/20/26 Week 2 Steelers Steelers Patriots Patriots 3-20 41.5 Over 2 Wrong
09/20/26 Week 2 Packers Packers Jets Jets 20-17 44.5 Under 1 Correct
09/20/26 Week 2 Eagles Eagles Titans Titans 24-20 39.5 Over 2 Correct
09/20/26 Week 2 Saints Saints Ravens Ravens 24-17 45.5 Over 1 Wrong
09/20/26 Week 2 Browns Browns Buccaneers Buccaneers 23-19 41.5 Over 2 Correct
09/17/26 Week 2 Lions Lions Bills Bills 31-41 54.5 Under 2 Wrong
09/14/26 Week 1 Broncos Broncos Chiefs Chiefs 10-31 42.5 Under 1 Correct
09/13/26 Week 1 Cowboys Cowboys Giants Giants 20-28 47.5 Over 3 Correct
09/13/26 Week 1 Cardinals Cardinals Chargers Chargers 26-14 47.5 Over 5 Wrong
09/13/26 Week 1 Dolphins Dolphins Raiders Raiders 13-27 40.5 Under 2 Correct
09/13/26 Week 1 Packers Packers Vikings Vikings 22-39 46.5 Over 1 Correct
09/13/26 Week 1 Commanders Commanders Eagles Eagles 22-24 43.5 Over 1 Correct
09/13/26 Week 1 Ravens Ravens Colts Colts 41-23 48.5 Under 2 Wrong
09/13/26 Week 1 Browns Browns Jaguars Jaguars 10-34 40.5 Over 1 Correct
09/13/26 Week 1 Bears Bears Panthers Panthers 59-37 47.5 Under 3 Wrong
09/13/26 Week 1 Buccaneers Buccaneers Bengals Bengals 27-33 50.5 Under 2 Wrong
09/13/26 Week 1 Jets Jets Titans Titans 23-10 39.5 Over 3 Wrong
09/13/26 Week 1 Falcons Falcons Steelers Steelers 13-20 40.5 Over 3 Wrong
09/13/26 Week 1 Saints Saints Lions Lions 30-31 49.5 Under 4 Wrong
09/13/26 Week 1 Bills Bills Texans Texans 36-31 44.5 Over 1 Correct
09/10/26 Week 1 49ers 49ers Rams Rams 27-7 47.5 Under 4 Correct
09/09/26 Week 1 Patriots Patriots Seahawks Seahawks 10-13 44.5 Under 1 Correct
Season Summary 58-50-0

Confidence Calibration

ATS
Winner
Over/Under
Perfect calibration

ATS

Confidence Predicted Observed Graded
53.1% 53.3% 871
59.1% 49.8% 468
65.9% 53.9% 232
72.9% 48.0% 75
82.2% 50.0% 8  *

Winner

Confidence Predicted Observed Graded
53.6% 61.7% 47
59.6% 56.3% 48
66.4% 54.1% 61
73.7% 68.6% 51
83.1% 77.1% 35

Over/Under

Confidence Predicted Observed Graded
53.0% 62.5% 32
59.1% 51.3% 39
66.0% 58.3% 24  *
73.3% 33.3% 12  *
78.5% 0.0% 1  *

Calibration checks whether projections land as often as their confidence claims. This card covers every season on record (2,004 graded projections), not just the season selected above. A row marked * has fewer than 30 graded projections and is shown for completeness rather than as a result.