Point Spreads

Map spread performance taxes to find where public sentiment splits from the sharp reality

Home Favorite / Away Underdog Performance

10+ 71 games
Home Win % .563
Avg Margin 2.8 pts
Home edge in toss-ups
7.5 to 9.5 70 games
Home Win % .386
Avg Margin -1.2 pts
Big favorites struggle
6 to 7 98 games
Home Win % .531
Avg Margin 2.3 pts
Slight favorite edge
4.5 to 5.5 51 games
Home Win % .451
Avg Margin 1.5 pts
Slight underdog edge
3 to 4 175 games
Home Win % .509
Avg Margin 1.0 pts
Slight favorite edge
0.5 to 2.5 118 games
Home Win % .534
Avg Margin 0.3 pts
Slight favorite edge

Away Favorite / Home Underdog Performance

10+ 17 games
Away Win % .441
Avg Margin -1.2 pts
Dogs covering
7.5 to 9.5 20 games
Away Win % .350
Avg Margin -0.5 pts
Big favorites struggle
6 to 7 54 games
Away Win % .500
Avg Margin 2.0 pts
Neutral zone
4.5 to 5.5 43 games
Away Win % .512
Avg Margin 0.5 pts
Slight favorite edge
3 to 4 125 games
Away Win % .588
Avg Margin 2.5 pts
Away favorites solid
0.5 to 2.5 119 games
Away Win % .504
Avg Margin -1.6 pts
Slight favorite edge

Pick'em / No Favorite

Even 2 games
Home Win % .000
Away Win % 1.000
Avg Margin -9.0 pts
Home side rarely covers

Line Movement Analysis

Lines Moving Up (More points to Fav)

Movement Games Fav Cover % Trend
+0.5 to +1 270 51.3% Cover
+1.5 to +2 91 50.5% Cover
+2.5+ 53 56.6% Cover
Favorites covered 56.6% of 53 games (+2.5+), while 51.3% of 270 games (+0.5 to +1) and 50.5% of 91 games (+1.5 to +2) sit inside the 45-55% no-signal band. At this sample size the gap is within normal variation.

Lines Moving Down (Fewer points to Fav)

Movement Games Fav Cover % Trend
-0.5 to -1 224 51.3% Cover
-1.5 to -2 73 39% Fade
-2.5+ 30 71.7% Cover
Favorites covered 71.7% of 30 games (-2.5+) but only 39% of 73 games (-1.5 to -2) - the move sizes disagree, so there is no single read.

Distribution of Win Margins ATS

963 Games Push 1 Pt 2 Pts 3 Pts 4+ Pts 4+ Pct
ATS Win Margin 32 80 67 53 731 .759
While the market is efficient at picking a "middle" number, the actual game outcomes are highly volatile. Most results either "cover with ease" or "miss by a mile," with very little middle ground.

Key Spread Insights

Home Underdogs

47.1%

ATS win rate for home dogs getting 3+ points

Road Favorites

37.1%

Road favs of 7+ pts struggle to cover

Revenge Games

51.6%

Teams facing recent loss to opponent

Post-Bye Week

48%

Teams coming off bye week ATS