Point Spreads

Map spread performance taxes to find where public sentiment splits from the sharp reality

Home Favorite / Away Underdog Performance

10+ 66 games
Home Win % .591
Avg Margin 3.5 pts
Home edge in toss-ups
7.5 to 9.5 62 games
Home Win % .419
Avg Margin -0.6 pts
Dogs covering
6 to 7 89 games
Home Win % .551
Avg Margin 2.9 pts
Home edge in toss-ups
4.5 to 5.5 46 games
Home Win % .435
Avg Margin 1.6 pts
Dogs covering
3 to 4 156 games
Home Win % .513
Avg Margin 1.0 pts
Slight favorite edge
0.5 to 2.5 111 games
Home Win % .541
Avg Margin 0.7 pts
Slight favorite edge

Away Favorite / Home Underdog Performance

10+ 16 games
Away Win % .406
Avg Margin -1.6 pts
Dogs covering
7.5 to 9.5 19 games
Away Win % .368
Avg Margin 0.0 pts
Big favorites struggle
6 to 7 51 games
Away Win % .500
Avg Margin 1.8 pts
Neutral zone
4.5 to 5.5 36 games
Away Win % .500
Avg Margin -0.5 pts
Neutral zone
3 to 4 112 games
Away Win % .585
Avg Margin 2.5 pts
Away favorites solid
0.5 to 2.5 105 games
Away Win % .514
Avg Margin -1.8 pts
Slight favorite edge

Pick'em / No Favorite

Even 2 games
Home Win % .000
Away Win % 1.000
Avg Margin -9.0 pts
Home side rarely covers

Line Movement Analysis

Lines Moving Up (More points to Fav)

Movement Games Fav Cover % Trend
+0.5 to +1 249 51.6% Cover
+1.5 to +2 87 50.6% Cover
+2.5+ 51 56.9% Cover
Favorites covered 56.9% of 51 games (+2.5+), while 51.6% of 249 games (+0.5 to +1) and 50.6% of 87 games (+1.5 to +2) sit inside the 45-55% no-signal band. At this sample size the gap is within normal variation.

Lines Moving Down (Fewer points to Fav)

Movement Games Fav Cover % Trend
-0.5 to -1 199 53.5% Cover
-1.5 to -2 69 39.9% Fade
-2.5+ 28 73.2% Cover
Favorites covered 73.2% of 28 games (-2.5+) but only 39.9% of 69 games (-1.5 to -2) - the move sizes disagree, so there is no single read.

Distribution of Win Margins ATS

871 Games Push 1 Pt 2 Pts 3 Pts 4+ Pts 4+ Pct
ATS Win Margin 27 74 64 44 662 .760
While the market is efficient at picking a "middle" number, the actual game outcomes are highly volatile. Most results either "cover with ease" or "miss by a mile," with very little middle ground.

Key Spread Insights

Home Underdogs

47.6%

ATS win rate for home dogs getting 3+ points

Road Favorites

37.1%

Road favs of 7+ pts struggle to cover

Revenge Games

51.4%

Teams facing recent loss to opponent

Post-Bye Week

46.9%

Teams coming off bye week ATS