Predictions

Objective algorithmic probability outputs across spreads, totals, and win probabilities

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ATS Win Rate
vs Closing Lines
-- vs Opening Lines
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Accuracy
0-0
% of winners predicted
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Money Line Efficiency
vs Closing Lines
-- vs Opening Lines
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Over/Under Accuracy
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totals projections

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2006

Season Summary

How our model's ATS projections actually fared in each situation — a retrospective record, not a forward prediction.

Model ATS Record

Type Record Accuracy
Favorite 0-0-0 --
Underdog 0-0-0 --
Even 0-0-0 --
Home 0-0-0 --
Home Dog 0-0-0 --
Net Unit Gain --

ATS Confidence

Confidence Record Accuracy
0-0-0 --
0-0-0 --
0-0-0 --
0-0-0 --
0-0-0 --
Total 0-0-0 --

Point Spread Range

Range Record Accuracy

Winner Confidence

Confidence Record Accuracy
0-0-0 --
0-0-0 --
0-0-0 --
0-0-0 --
0-0-0 --
Total 0-0-0 --

Money Line Value

Value Tier Record Accuracy
vs Closing Lines
vs Opening Lines
No opening lines this season

Over/Under Confidence

Confidence Record Accuracy
0-0-0 --
0-0-0 --
0-0-0 --
0-0-0 --
0-0-0 --
Total 0-0-0 --
By Direction
Over 0-0-0 --
Under 0-0-0 --

ATS Wins & Winner Accuracy, By Week

ATS Win Rate
Winner Accuracy
Favorite Win Rate

Over/Under Accuracy, Season to Date

Not enough Over/Under projections have graded yet this season. The chart appears once the sample is large enough for the comparison against 50% to mean anything.

Game History

Correct Wrong Push
Date Week Visitor Home Score H Line Projected Confidence Result
Season Summary 0-0-0
Date Week Visitor Home Score Projected Probability Confidence Result
Season Summary 0-0-0
Date Week Visitor Home Score ML Odds EV Value Tier Projected Result
Season Summary 0-0-0
Date Week Visitor Home Score Total Projected Confidence Result
Season Summary 0-0-0

Confidence Calibration

ATS
Winner
Over/Under
Perfect calibration

ATS

Confidence Predicted Observed Graded
53.1% 53.4% 867
59.1% 49.8% 464
65.9% 53.3% 229
72.8% 48.6% 74
83.0% 50.0% 6  *

Winner

Confidence Predicted Observed Graded
53.6% 61.4% 44
59.7% 54.3% 46
66.3% 52.5% 59
73.9% 66.0% 47
83.3% 81.3% 32

Over/Under

Confidence Predicted Observed Graded
53.0% 66.7% 30
59.0% 53.1% 32
66.1% 57.1% 21  *
73.5% 40.0% 10  *
78.5% 0.0% 1  *

Calibration checks whether projections land as often as their confidence claims. This card covers every season on record (1,962 graded projections), not just the season selected above. A row marked * has fewer than 30 graded projections and is shown for completeness rather than as a result.