Predictions

Objective algorithmic probability outputs across spreads, totals, and win probabilities

52.9%
ATS Win Rate
vs Closing Lines
43.3% vs Opening Lines
--
Accuracy
0-0
% of winners predicted
--
Money Line Efficiency
vs Closing Lines
-- vs Opening Lines
--
Over/Under Accuracy
--
totals projections

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2014

Season Summary

How our model's ATS projections actually fared in each situation — a retrospective record, not a forward prediction.

Model ATS Record

Type Record Accuracy
Favorite 7-6-0 53.8%
Underdog 2-1-0 66.7%
Even 0-1-0 0.0%
Home 2-1-0 66.7%
Home Dog 2-0-0 100.0%
Net Unit Gain +0.2u

ATS Confidence

Confidence Record Accuracy
7-3-0 70.0%
2-2-0 50.0%
0-3-0 0.0%
0-0-0 --
0-0-0 --
Total 9-8-0 52.9%

Point Spread Range

Range Record Accuracy
Even - 2.5 1-4-0 20.0%
3 - 4 4-2-0 66.7%
4.5 - 5.5 1-0-0 100.0%
6 - 7 1-1-0 50.0%
7.5 - 9.5 2-1-0 66.7%

Winner Confidence

Confidence Record Accuracy
0-0-0 --
0-0-0 --
0-0-0 --
0-0-0 --
0-0-0 --
Total 0-0-0 --

Money Line Value

Value Tier Record Accuracy
vs Closing Lines
vs Opening Lines
No opening lines this season

Over/Under Confidence

Confidence Record Accuracy
0-0-0 --
0-0-0 --
0-0-0 --
0-0-0 --
0-0-0 --
Total 0-0-0 --
By Direction
Over 0-0-0 --
Under 0-0-0 --

ATS Wins & Winner Accuracy, By Week

ATS Win Rate
Winner Accuracy
Favorite Win Rate

Over/Under Accuracy, Season to Date

Not enough Over/Under projections have graded yet this season. The chart appears once the sample is large enough for the comparison against 50% to mean anything.

Game History

Correct Wrong Push
Date Week Visitor Home Score H Line Projected Confidence Result
12/28/14 Week 17 Bengals Bengals Steelers Steelers 17-27 -3 Bengals 2 Wrong
12/21/14 Week 16 Seahawks Seahawks Cardinals Cardinals 35-6 9.5 Seahawks 1 Correct
12/14/14 Week 15 Cowboys Cowboys Eagles Eagles 38-27 -3.5 Cowboys 2 Correct
12/07/14 Week 14 Patriots Patriots Chargers Chargers 23-14 4 Patriots 1 Correct
11/30/14 Week 13 Broncos Broncos Chiefs Chiefs 29-16 Even Chiefs 1 Wrong
11/23/14 Week 12 Cowboys Cowboys Giants Giants 31-28 4.5 Giants 1 Correct
11/16/14 Week 11 Patriots Patriots Colts Colts 42-20 -3 Patriots 1 Correct
11/09/14 Week 10 Bears Bears Packers Packers 14-55 -8.5 Bears 3 Wrong
11/02/14 Week 9 Ravens Ravens Steelers Steelers 23-43 -2 Ravens 3 Wrong
10/26/14 Week 8 Packers Packers Saints Saints 23-44 -2 Packers 3 Wrong
10/19/14 Week 7 49ers 49ers Broncos Broncos 17-42 -6.5 49ers 2 Wrong
10/12/14 Week 6 Giants Giants Eagles Eagles 0-27 -1.5 Giants 1 Wrong
10/05/14 Week 5 Bengals Bengals Patriots Patriots 17-43 2.5 Patriots 1 Correct
09/28/14 Week 4 Saints Saints Cowboys Cowboys 17-38 3 Saints 1 Wrong
09/21/14 Week 3 Steelers Steelers Panthers Panthers 37-19 -3 Steelers 2 Correct
09/14/14 Week 2 Bears Bears 49ers 49ers 28-20 -7 Bears 1 Correct
09/07/14 Week 1 Colts Colts Broncos Broncos 24-31 -8.5 Colts 1 Correct
Season Summary 9-8-0
Date Week Visitor Home Score Projected Probability Confidence Result
Season Summary 0-0-0
Date Week Visitor Home Score ML Odds EV Value Tier Projected Result
Season Summary 0-0-0
Date Week Visitor Home Score Total Projected Confidence Result
Season Summary 0-0-0

Confidence Calibration

ATS
Winner
Over/Under
Perfect calibration

ATS

Confidence Predicted Observed Graded
52.9% 48.4% 62
59.3% 50.0% 26  *
65.7% 35.3% 17  *
72.2% 33.3% 3  *
83.1% 100.0% 1  *

Winner

Confidence Predicted Observed Graded
54.6% 0.0% 2  *
59.7% 100.0% 4  *
67.8% 0.0% 3  *
74.4% 25.0% 4  *
83.5% 100.0% 2  *

Over/Under

Confidence Predicted Observed Graded
55.3% 100.0% 1  *
58.7% 33.3% 3  *
64.1% 100.0% 2  *
No projections graded at this confidence
No projections graded at this confidence

Calibration checks whether projections land as often as their confidence claims. This card covers every season on record (130 graded projections), not just the season selected above. A row marked * has fewer than 30 graded projections and is shown for completeness rather than as a result.