Predictions

Objective algorithmic probability outputs across spreads, totals, and win probabilities

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ATS Win Rate
vs Closing Lines
-- vs Opening Lines
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Accuracy
0-0
% of winners predicted
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Money Line Efficiency
vs Closing Lines
-- vs Opening Lines
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Over/Under Accuracy
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totals projections

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2020

Season Summary

How our model's ATS projections actually fared in each situation — a retrospective record, not a forward prediction.

Model ATS Record

Type Record Accuracy
Favorite 0-0-0 --
Underdog 0-0-0 --
Even 0-0-0 --
Home 0-0-0 --
Home Dog 0-0-0 --
Net Unit Gain --

ATS Confidence

Confidence Record Accuracy
0-0-0 --
0-0-0 --
0-0-0 --
0-0-0 --
0-0-0 --
Total 0-0-0 --

Point Spread Range

Range Record Accuracy

Winner Confidence

Confidence Record Accuracy
0-0-0 --
0-0-0 --
0-0-0 --
0-0-0 --
0-0-0 --
Total 0-0-0 --

Money Line Value

Value Tier Record Accuracy
vs Closing Lines
vs Opening Lines
No opening lines this season

Over/Under Confidence

Confidence Record Accuracy
0-0-0 --
0-0-0 --
0-0-0 --
0-0-0 --
0-0-0 --
Total 0-0-0 --
By Direction
Over 0-0-0 --
Under 0-0-0 --

ATS Wins & Winner Accuracy, By Week

ATS Win Rate
Winner Accuracy
Favorite Win Rate

Over/Under Accuracy, Season to Date

Not enough Over/Under projections have graded yet this season. The chart appears once the sample is large enough for the comparison against 50% to mean anything.

Game History

Correct Wrong Push
Date Week Visitor Home Score H Line Projected Confidence Result
Season Summary 0-0-0
Date Week Visitor Home Score Projected Probability Confidence Result
Season Summary 0-0-0
Date Week Visitor Home Score ML Odds EV Value Tier Projected Result
Season Summary 0-0-0
Date Week Visitor Home Score Total Projected Confidence Result
Season Summary 0-0-0

Confidence Calibration

ATS
Winner
Over/Under
Perfect calibration

ATS

Confidence Predicted Observed Graded
52.9% 48.4% 62
59.3% 50.0% 26  *
65.7% 35.3% 17  *
72.2% 33.3% 3  *
83.1% 100.0% 1  *

Winner

Confidence Predicted Observed Graded
54.6% 0.0% 2  *
59.7% 100.0% 4  *
67.8% 0.0% 3  *
74.4% 25.0% 4  *
83.5% 100.0% 2  *

Over/Under

Confidence Predicted Observed Graded
55.3% 100.0% 1  *
58.7% 33.3% 3  *
64.1% 100.0% 2  *
No projections graded at this confidence
No projections graded at this confidence

Calibration checks whether projections land as often as their confidence claims. This card covers every season on record (130 graded projections), not just the season selected above. A row marked * has fewer than 30 graded projections and is shown for completeness rather than as a result.