Predictions

Objective algorithmic probability outputs across spreads, totals, and win probabilities

53.8%
ATS Win Rate
vs Closing Lines
53.8% vs Opening Lines
83.3%
Accuracy
10-2
% of winners predicted
80.0%
Money Line Efficiency
vs Closing Lines
80.0% vs Opening Lines
--
Over/Under Accuracy
--
totals projections

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2025

Season Summary

How our model's ATS projections actually fared in each situation — a retrospective record, not a forward prediction.

Model ATS Record

Type Record Accuracy
Favorite 2-2-0 50.0%
Underdog 5-4-0 55.6%
Even 0-0-0 --
Home 4-1-0 80.0%
Home Dog 1-0-0 100.0%
Net Unit Gain +0.4u

ATS Confidence

Confidence Record Accuracy
6-6-0 50.0%
1-0-0 100.0%
0-0-0 --
0-0-0 --
0-0-0 --
Total 7-6-0 53.8%

Point Spread Range

Range Record Accuracy
Even - 2.5 1-3-0 25.0%
3 - 4 4-1-0 80.0%
4.5 - 5.5 2-0-0 100.0%
6 - 7 0-1-0 0.0%
10+ 0-1-0 0.0%

Winner Confidence

Confidence Record Accuracy
4-1-0 80.0%
2-1-0 66.7%
1-0-0 100.0%
1-0-0 100.0%
2-0-0 100.0%
Total 10-2-0 83.3%

Money Line Value

Value Tier Record Accuracy
vs Closing Lines
High Value 3-0-0 100.0%
Small Value 1-1-0 50.0%
vs Opening Lines
High Value 3-0-0 100.0%
Med Value 1-1-0 50.0%

Over/Under Confidence

Confidence Record Accuracy
0-0-0 --
0-0-0 --
0-0-0 --
0-0-0 --
0-0-0 --
Total 0-0-0 --
By Direction
Over 0-0-0 --
Under 0-0-0 --

ATS Wins & Winner Accuracy, By Week

ATS Win Rate
Winner Accuracy
Favorite Win Rate

Over/Under Accuracy, Season to Date

Not enough Over/Under projections have graded yet this season. The chart appears once the sample is large enough for the comparison against 50% to mean anything.

Game History

Correct Wrong Push
Date Week Visitor Home Score H Line Projected Confidence Result
02/08/26 Week 22 Seahawks Seahawks Patriots Patriots 29-13 4.5 Seahawks 2 Correct
01/25/26 Week 21 Rams Rams Seahawks Seahawks 27-31 -2.5 Rams 1 Wrong
01/25/26 Week 21 Patriots Patriots Broncos Broncos 10-7 4 Broncos 1 Correct
01/18/26 Week 20 Rams Rams Bears Bears 20-17 3.5 Rams 1 Wrong
01/18/26 Week 20 Texans Texans Patriots Patriots 16-28 -3 Patriots 1 Correct
01/17/26 Week 20 49ers 49ers Seahawks Seahawks 6-41 -7 49ers 1 Wrong
01/17/26 Week 20 Bills Bills Broncos Broncos 30-33 -1 Broncos 1 Correct
01/12/26 Week 19 Texans Texans Steelers Steelers 30-6 3 Texans 1 Correct
01/11/26 Week 19 Chargers Chargers Patriots Patriots 3-16 -3.5 Patriots 1 Correct
01/11/26 Week 19 49ers 49ers Eagles Eagles 23-19 -5.5 49ers 1 Correct
01/11/26 Week 19 Bills Bills Jaguars Jaguars 27-24 -1.5 Jaguars 1 Wrong
01/10/26 Week 19 Packers Packers Bears Bears 27-31 2 Packers 1 Wrong
01/10/26 Week 19 Rams Rams Panthers Panthers 34-31 10 Rams 1 Wrong
Season Summary 7-6-0
Date Week Visitor Home Score Projected Probability Confidence Result
01/25/26 Week 21 Rams Rams Seahawks Seahawks 27-31 Seahawks 53.4% 1 Correct
01/25/26 Week 21 Patriots Patriots Broncos Broncos 10-7 Patriots 58.1% 2 Correct
01/18/26 Week 20 Rams Rams Bears Bears 20-17 Rams 55.5% 1 Correct
01/18/26 Week 20 Texans Texans Patriots Patriots 16-28 Patriots 80.1% 5 Correct
01/17/26 Week 20 49ers 49ers Seahawks Seahawks 6-41 Seahawks 65.1% 3 Correct
01/17/26 Week 20 Bills Bills Broncos Broncos 30-33 Broncos 53.7% 1 Correct
01/12/26 Week 19 Texans Texans Steelers Steelers 30-6 Texans 51.1% 1 Correct
01/11/26 Week 19 Chargers Chargers Patriots Patriots 3-16 Patriots 83.2% 5 Correct
01/11/26 Week 19 49ers 49ers Eagles Eagles 23-19 Eagles 60.3% 2 Wrong
01/11/26 Week 19 Bills Bills Jaguars Jaguars 27-24 Jaguars 55.0% 1 Wrong
01/10/26 Week 19 Packers Packers Bears Bears 27-31 Bears 61.3% 2 Correct
01/10/26 Week 19 Rams Rams Panthers Panthers 34-31 Rams 75.7% 4 Correct
Season Summary 10-2-0
Date Week Visitor Home Score ML Odds EV Value Tier Projected Result
01/18/26 Week 20 Texans Texans Patriots Patriots 16-28 -170 +27.17% High Patriots Correct
01/17/26 Week 20 Bills Bills Broncos Broncos 30-33 -110 +2.50% Small Broncos Correct
01/11/26 Week 19 Chargers Chargers Patriots Patriots 3-16 -200 +24.75% High Patriots Correct
01/11/26 Week 19 Bills Bills Jaguars Jaguars 27-24 -120 +0.87% Small Jaguars Wrong
01/10/26 Week 19 Packers Packers Bears Bears 27-31 +115 +31.83% High Bears Correct
Season Summary 4-1-0
Date Week Visitor Home Score Total Projected Confidence Result
Season Summary 0-0-0

Confidence Calibration

ATS
Winner
Over/Under
Perfect calibration

ATS

Confidence Predicted Observed Graded
54.0% 50.0% 12  *
59.0% 100.0% 1  *
No projections graded at this confidence
No projections graded at this confidence
No projections graded at this confidence

Winner

Confidence Predicted Observed Graded
53.7% 80.0% 5  *
59.9% 66.7% 3  *
65.1% 100.0% 1  *
75.7% 100.0% 1  *
81.6% 100.0% 2  *

Over/Under

Confidence Predicted Observed Graded
No projections graded at this confidence
No projections graded at this confidence
No projections graded at this confidence
No projections graded at this confidence
No projections graded at this confidence

Calibration checks whether projections land as often as their confidence claims. This card covers every season on record (25 graded projections), not just the season selected above. A row marked * has fewer than 30 graded projections and is shown for completeness rather than as a result.