Objective algorithmic probability outputs across spreads, totals, and win probabilities
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How our model's ATS projections actually fared in each situation — a retrospective record, not a forward prediction.
| Confidence | Record | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|
|
|
6-6-0 | 50.0% |
|
|
1-0-0 | 100.0% |
|
|
0-0-0 | -- |
|
|
0-0-0 | -- |
|
|
0-0-0 | -- |
| Total | 7-6-0 | 53.8% |
| Range | Record | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|
| Even - 2.5 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% |
| 3 - 4 | 4-1-0 | 80.0% |
| 4.5 - 5.5 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% |
| 6 - 7 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% |
| 10+ | 0-1-0 | 0.0% |
| Confidence | Record | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|
|
|
4-1-0 | 80.0% |
|
|
2-1-0 | 66.7% |
|
|
1-0-0 | 100.0% |
|
|
1-0-0 | 100.0% |
|
|
2-0-0 | 100.0% |
| Total | 10-2-0 | 83.3% |
| Confidence | Record | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|
|
|
0-0-0 | -- |
|
|
0-0-0 | -- |
|
|
0-0-0 | -- |
|
|
0-0-0 | -- |
|
|
0-0-0 | -- |
| Total | 0-0-0 | -- |
| By Direction | ||
| Over | 0-0-0 | -- |
| Under | 0-0-0 | -- |
| Date | Week | Visitor | Home | Score | H Line | Projected | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/08/26 | Week 22 |
Seahawks
|
Patriots
|
29-13 | 4.5 | Seahawks | 2 | Correct |
| 01/25/26 | Week 21 |
Rams
|
Seahawks
|
27-31 | -2.5 | Rams | 1 | Wrong |
| 01/25/26 | Week 21 |
Patriots
|
Broncos
|
10-7 | 4 | Broncos | 1 | Correct |
| 01/18/26 | Week 20 |
Rams
|
Bears
|
20-17 | 3.5 | Rams | 1 | Wrong |
| 01/18/26 | Week 20 |
Texans
|
Patriots
|
16-28 | -3 | Patriots | 1 | Correct |
| 01/17/26 | Week 20 |
49ers
|
Seahawks
|
6-41 | -7 | 49ers | 1 | Wrong |
| 01/17/26 | Week 20 |
Bills
|
Broncos
|
30-33 | -1 | Broncos | 1 | Correct |
| 01/12/26 | Week 19 |
Texans
|
Steelers
|
30-6 | 3 | Texans | 1 | Correct |
| 01/11/26 | Week 19 |
Chargers
|
Patriots
|
3-16 | -3.5 | Patriots | 1 | Correct |
| 01/11/26 | Week 19 |
49ers
|
Eagles
|
23-19 | -5.5 | 49ers | 1 | Correct |
| 01/11/26 | Week 19 |
Bills
|
Jaguars
|
27-24 | -1.5 | Jaguars | 1 | Wrong |
| 01/10/26 | Week 19 |
Packers
|
Bears
|
27-31 | 2 | Packers | 1 | Wrong |
| 01/10/26 | Week 19 |
Rams
|
Panthers
|
34-31 | 10 | Rams | 1 | Wrong |
| Season Summary | 7-6-0 | |||||||
| Date | Week | Visitor | Home | Score | Projected | Probability | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/25/26 | Week 21 |
Rams
|
Seahawks
|
27-31 | Seahawks | 53.4% | 1 | Correct |
| 01/25/26 | Week 21 |
Patriots
|
Broncos
|
10-7 | Patriots | 58.1% | 2 | Correct |
| 01/18/26 | Week 20 |
Rams
|
Bears
|
20-17 | Rams | 55.5% | 1 | Correct |
| 01/18/26 | Week 20 |
Texans
|
Patriots
|
16-28 | Patriots | 80.1% | 5 | Correct |
| 01/17/26 | Week 20 |
49ers
|
Seahawks
|
6-41 | Seahawks | 65.1% | 3 | Correct |
| 01/17/26 | Week 20 |
Bills
|
Broncos
|
30-33 | Broncos | 53.7% | 1 | Correct |
| 01/12/26 | Week 19 |
Texans
|
Steelers
|
30-6 | Texans | 51.1% | 1 | Correct |
| 01/11/26 | Week 19 |
Chargers
|
Patriots
|
3-16 | Patriots | 83.2% | 5 | Correct |
| 01/11/26 | Week 19 |
49ers
|
Eagles
|
23-19 | Eagles | 60.3% | 2 | Wrong |
| 01/11/26 | Week 19 |
Bills
|
Jaguars
|
27-24 | Jaguars | 55.0% | 1 | Wrong |
| 01/10/26 | Week 19 |
Packers
|
Bears
|
27-31 | Bears | 61.3% | 2 | Correct |
| 01/10/26 | Week 19 |
Rams
|
Panthers
|
34-31 | Rams | 75.7% | 4 | Correct |
| Season Summary | 10-2-0 | |||||||
| Date | Week | Visitor | Home | Score | ML Odds | EV | Value Tier | Projected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/18/26 | Week 20 |
Texans
|
Patriots
|
16-28 | -170 | +27.17% | High | Patriots | Correct |
| 01/17/26 | Week 20 |
Bills
|
Broncos
|
30-33 | -110 | +2.50% | Small | Broncos | Correct |
| 01/11/26 | Week 19 |
Chargers
|
Patriots
|
3-16 | -200 | +24.75% | High | Patriots | Correct |
| 01/11/26 | Week 19 |
Bills
|
Jaguars
|
27-24 | -120 | +0.87% | Small | Jaguars | Wrong |
| 01/10/26 | Week 19 |
Packers
|
Bears
|
27-31 | +115 | +31.83% | High | Bears | Correct |
| Season Summary | 4-1-0 | ||||||||
| Date | Week | Visitor | Home | Score | Total | Projected | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season Summary | 0-0-0 | |||||||
| Confidence | Predicted | Observed | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|
|
|
54.0% | 50.0% | 12 * |
|
|
59.0% | 100.0% | 1 * |
|
|
No projections graded at this confidence | ||
|
|
No projections graded at this confidence | ||
|
|
No projections graded at this confidence | ||
| Confidence | Predicted | Observed | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|
|
|
53.7% | 80.0% | 5 * |
|
|
59.9% | 66.7% | 3 * |
|
|
65.1% | 100.0% | 1 * |
|
|
75.7% | 100.0% | 1 * |
|
|
81.6% | 100.0% | 2 * |
| Confidence | Predicted | Observed | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|
|
|
No projections graded at this confidence | ||
|
|
No projections graded at this confidence | ||
|
|
No projections graded at this confidence | ||
|
|
No projections graded at this confidence | ||
|
|
No projections graded at this confidence | ||
Calibration checks whether projections land as often as their confidence claims. This card covers every season on record (25 graded projections), not just the season selected above. A row marked * has fewer than 30 graded projections and is shown for completeness rather than as a result.