Point Spreads

Map spread performance taxes to find where public sentiment splits from the sharp reality

Home Favorite / Away Underdog Performance

10+ 21 games
Home Win % .667
Avg Margin 0.9 pts
Favorites cover well
7.5 to 9.5 44 games
Home Win % .375
Avg Margin -2.3 pts
Big favorites struggle
6 to 7 44 games
Home Win % .511
Avg Margin 1.8 pts
Slight favorite edge
4.5 to 5.5 26 games
Home Win % .481
Avg Margin 0.5 pts
Slight underdog edge
3 to 4 57 games
Home Win % .456
Avg Margin 0.9 pts
Slight underdog edge
0.5 to 2.5 27 games
Home Win % .407
Avg Margin -3.5 pts
Dogs covering

Away Favorite / Home Underdog Performance

10+ 2 games
Away Win % .000
Avg Margin -11.0 pts
Big favorites struggle
7.5 to 9.5 2 games
Away Win % .000
Avg Margin -7.0 pts
Big favorites struggle
6 to 7 3 games
Away Win % .333
Avg Margin -0.3 pts
Big favorites struggle
4.5 to 5.5 5 games
Away Win % .200
Avg Margin -7.6 pts
Big favorites struggle
3 to 4 26 games
Away Win % .500
Avg Margin -1.2 pts
Neutral zone
0.5 to 2.5 16 games
Away Win % .188
Avg Margin -6.2 pts
Big favorites struggle

Pick'em / No Favorite

Even 3 games
Home Win % .000
Away Win % 1.000
Avg Margin -9.7 pts
Home side rarely covers

Line Movement Analysis

Lines Moving Up (More points to Fav)

Movement Games Fav Cover % Trend
+0.5 to +1 66 51.5% Cover
+1.5 to +2 19 44.7% Fade
+2.5+ 7 42.9% Fade
Only the +0.5 to +1 range holds at least 20 games: favorites covered 51.5% of its 66 games, inside the 45-55% no-signal band. The other move sizes are too thin to read. At this sample size the gap is within normal variation.

Lines Moving Down (Fewer points to Fav)

Movement Games Fav Cover % Trend
-0.5 to -1 48 30.2% Fade
-1.5 to -2 9 22.2% Fade
-2.5+ -- -- --
Only the -0.5 to -1 range holds at least 20 games: favorites covered just 30.2% of its 48 games. The other move sizes are too thin to read.

Distribution of Win Margins ATS

276 Games Push 1 Pt 2 Pts 3 Pts 4+ Pts 4+ Pct
ATS Win Margin 5 28 16 14 213 .772
While the market is efficient at picking a "middle" number, the actual game outcomes are highly volatile. Most results either "cover with ease" or "miss by a mile," with very little middle ground.

Key Spread Insights

Home Underdogs

60.5%

ATS win rate for home dogs getting 3+ points

Road Favorites

0%

Road favs of 7+ pts struggle to cover

Revenge Games

50.7%

Teams facing recent loss to opponent

Post-Bye Week

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Teams coming off bye week ATS