Point Spreads

Map spread performance taxes to find where public sentiment splits from the sharp reality

Home Favorite / Away Underdog Performance

10+ 5 games
Home Win % .600
Avg Margin -1.5 pts
Favorites cover well
7.5 to 9.5 7 games
Home Win % .714
Avg Margin 7.1 pts
Favorites cover well
6 to 7 3 games
Home Win % .667
Avg Margin 6.0 pts
Favorites cover well
4.5 to 5.5 2 games
Home Win % .000
Avg Margin -7.3 pts
Big favorites struggle
3 to 4 9 games
Home Win % .722
Avg Margin 8.7 pts
Favorites cover well
0.5 to 2.5 3 games
Home Win % .333
Avg Margin -0.3 pts
Big favorites struggle

Away Favorite / Home Underdog Performance

7.5 to 9.5 2 games
Away Win % 1.000
Avg Margin 1.8 pts
Favorites cover well
6 to 7 2 games
Away Win % 1.000
Avg Margin 12.3 pts
Favorites cover well
3 to 4 4 games
Away Win % 1.000
Avg Margin 20.1 pts
Favorites cover well
0.5 to 2.5 2 games
Away Win % .500
Avg Margin 0.0 pts
Neutral zone

Pick'em / No Favorite

Line Movement Analysis

No opening-line data for this selection yet - line movement fills in as games are captured with an opening line.

Distribution of Win Margins ATS

39 Games Push 1 Pt 2 Pts 3 Pts 4+ Pts 4+ Pct
ATS Win Margin 1 1 0 2 35 .897
While the market is efficient at picking a "middle" number, the actual game outcomes are highly volatile. Most results either "cover with ease" or "miss by a mile," with very little middle ground.

Key Spread Insights

Home Underdogs

0%

ATS win rate for home dogs getting 3+ points

Road Favorites

100%

Road favs of 7+ pts struggle to cover

Revenge Games

46.8%

Teams facing recent loss to opponent

Post-Bye Week

75%

Teams coming off bye week ATS