Home Favorite / Away Underdog Performance

10+ 5 games
Home Win % .200
Avg Margin -7.4 pts
Big favorites struggle
7.5 to 9.5 2 games
Home Win % .500
Avg Margin 1.8 pts
Neutral zone
6 to 7 1 games
Home Win % .000
Avg Margin -11.0 pts
Big favorites struggle
3 to 4 2 games
Home Win % .500
Avg Margin 2.3 pts
Neutral zone

Away Favorite / Home Underdog Performance

3 to 4 1 games
Away Win % .000
Avg Margin -1.0 pts
Big favorites struggle

Line Movement Analysis

Lines Moving Up (More points to Fav)

Movement Games Fav Cover % Trend
+0.5 to +1 -- -- --
+1.5 to +2 -- -- --
+2.5+ -- -- --
Sharp money often moves against large line shifts

Lines Moving Down (Fewer points to Fav)

Movement Games Fav Cover % Trend
-0.5 to -1 -- -- --
-1.5 to -2 -- -- --
-2.5+ -- -- --
Reverse line movement signals smart money

Distribution of Win Margins ATS

11 Games Push 1 Pt 2 Pts 3 Pts 4+ Pts 4+ Pct
ATS Win Margin 0 2 0 1 8 .727
While the market is efficient at picking a "middle" number, the actual game outcomes are highly volatile. Most results either "cover with ease" or "miss by a mile," with very little middle ground.

Key Spread Insights

Home Underdogs

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ATS win rate for home dogs getting 3+ points

Road Favorites

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Road favs of 7+ pts struggle to cover

Revenge Games

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Teams facing recent loss to opponent

Post-Bye Week

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Teams coming off bye week ATS