Home Favorite / Away Underdog Performance

10+ 4 games
Home Win % .000
Avg Margin -10.0 pts
Big favorites struggle
7.5 to 9.5 4 games
Home Win % 1.000
Avg Margin 15.5 pts
Favorites cover well
6 to 7 7 games
Home Win % .429
Avg Margin -7.6 pts
Dogs covering
4.5 to 5.5 2 games
Home Win % .500
Avg Margin 2.0 pts
Neutral zone
3 to 4 8 games
Home Win % .500
Avg Margin 0.0 pts
Neutral zone
0 to 2.5 2 games
Home Win % 1.000
Avg Margin 14.3 pts
Favorites cover well

Away Favorite / Home Underdog Performance

10+ 6 games
Away Win % .333
Avg Margin -0.8 pts
Big favorites struggle
7.5 to 9.5 4 games
Away Win % .750
Avg Margin 5.3 pts
Favorites cover well
4.5 to 5.5 3 games
Away Win % .667
Avg Margin 3.0 pts
Favorites cover well
3 to 4 6 games
Away Win % .500
Avg Margin 5.1 pts
Neutral zone

Line Movement Analysis

Lines Moving Up (More points to Fav)

Movement Games Fav Cover % Trend
+0.5 to +1 -- -- --
+1.5 to +2 -- -- --
+2.5+ -- -- --
Sharp money often moves against large line shifts

Lines Moving Down (Fewer points to Fav)

Movement Games Fav Cover % Trend
-0.5 to -1 -- -- --
-1.5 to -2 -- -- --
-2.5+ -- -- --
Reverse line movement signals smart money

Distribution of Win Margins ATS

46 Games Push 1 Pt 2 Pts 3 Pts 4+ Pts 4+ Pct
ATS Win Margin 0 3 0 2 41 .891
While the market is efficient at picking a "middle" number, the actual game outcomes are highly volatile. Most results either "cover with ease" or "miss by a mile," with very little middle ground.

Key Spread Insights

Home Underdogs

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ATS win rate for home dogs getting 3+ points

Road Favorites

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Road favs of 7+ pts struggle to cover

Revenge Games

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Teams facing recent loss to opponent

Post-Bye Week

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Teams coming off bye week ATS