Home Favorite / Away Underdog Performance

10+ 33 games
Home Win % .515
Avg Margin 2.1 pts
Slight favorite edge
7.5 to 9.5 24 games
Home Win % .667
Avg Margin 7.1 pts
Favorites cover well
6 to 7 26 games
Home Win % .500
Avg Margin -1.7 pts
Neutral zone
4.5 to 5.5 14 games
Home Win % .500
Avg Margin 2.9 pts
Neutral zone
3 to 4 51 games
Home Win % .471
Avg Margin -1.1 pts
Slight underdog edge
0 to 2.5 18 games
Home Win % .611
Avg Margin -2.4 pts
Favorites cover well

Away Favorite / Home Underdog Performance

10+ 10 games
Away Win % .300
Avg Margin -1.9 pts
Big favorites struggle
7.5 to 9.5 10 games
Away Win % .500
Avg Margin -3.6 pts
Neutral zone
6 to 7 8 games
Away Win % .375
Avg Margin -0.7 pts
Big favorites struggle
4.5 to 5.5 10 games
Away Win % .600
Avg Margin 2.1 pts
Favorites cover well
3 to 4 43 games
Away Win % .500
Avg Margin 1.0 pts
Neutral zone
0 to 2.5 7 games
Away Win % .857
Avg Margin 4.7 pts
Favorites cover well
Even 2 games
Away Win % .000
Avg Margin -17.5 pts
Big favorites struggle

Line Movement Analysis

Lines Moving Up (More points to Fav)

Movement Games Fav Cover % Trend
+0.5 to +1 -- -- --
+1.5 to +2 -- -- --
+2.5+ -- -- --
Sharp money often moves against large line shifts

Lines Moving Down (Fewer points to Fav)

Movement Games Fav Cover % Trend
-0.5 to -1 -- -- --
-1.5 to -2 -- -- --
-2.5+ -- -- --
Reverse line movement signals smart money

Distribution of Win Margins ATS

256 Games Push 1 Pt 2 Pts 3 Pts 4+ Pts 4+ Pct
ATS Win Margin 7 22 11 11 205 .801
While the market is efficient at picking a "middle" number, the actual game outcomes are highly volatile. Most results either "cover with ease" or "miss by a mile," with very little middle ground.

Key Spread Insights

Home Underdogs

--

ATS win rate for home dogs getting 3+ points

Road Favorites

--

Road favs of 7+ pts struggle to cover

Revenge Games

--

Teams facing recent loss to opponent

Post-Bye Week

--

Teams coming off bye week ATS