Home Favorite / Away Underdog Performance

10+ 45 games
Home Win % .556
Avg Margin 2.8 pts
Home edge in toss-ups
7.5 to 9.5 29 games
Home Win % .483
Avg Margin 1.9 pts
Slight underdog edge
6 to 7 22 games
Home Win % .341
Avg Margin -2.9 pts
Big favorites struggle
4.5 to 5.5 17 games
Home Win % .412
Avg Margin -1.9 pts
Dogs covering
3 to 4 36 games
Home Win % .431
Avg Margin -2.2 pts
Dogs covering
0 to 2.5 18 games
Home Win % .444
Avg Margin -0.7 pts
Dogs covering

Away Favorite / Home Underdog Performance

10+ 18 games
Away Win % .333
Avg Margin -2.6 pts
Big favorites struggle
7.5 to 9.5 7 games
Away Win % .286
Avg Margin -6.0 pts
Big favorites struggle
6 to 7 16 games
Away Win % .656
Avg Margin 7.9 pts
Favorites cover well
4.5 to 5.5 6 games
Away Win % .667
Avg Margin 5.5 pts
Favorites cover well
3 to 4 33 games
Away Win % .606
Avg Margin 0.7 pts
Favorites cover well
0 to 2.5 9 games
Away Win % .444
Avg Margin -2.9 pts
Dogs covering

Line Movement Analysis

Lines Moving Up (More points to Fav)

Movement Games Fav Cover % Trend
+0.5 to +1 -- -- --
+1.5 to +2 -- -- --
+2.5+ -- -- --
Sharp money often moves against large line shifts

Lines Moving Down (Fewer points to Fav)

Movement Games Fav Cover % Trend
-0.5 to -1 -- -- --
-1.5 to -2 -- -- --
-2.5+ -- -- --
Reverse line movement signals smart money

Distribution of Win Margins ATS

256 Games Push 1 Pt 2 Pts 3 Pts 4+ Pts 4+ Pct
ATS Win Margin 7 18 10 12 209 .816
While the market is efficient at picking a "middle" number, the actual game outcomes are highly volatile. Most results either "cover with ease" or "miss by a mile," with very little middle ground.

Key Spread Insights

Home Underdogs

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ATS win rate for home dogs getting 3+ points

Road Favorites

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Road favs of 7+ pts struggle to cover

Revenge Games

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Teams facing recent loss to opponent

Post-Bye Week

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Teams coming off bye week ATS