Home Favorite / Away Underdog Performance

10+ 36 games
Home Win % .556
Avg Margin 4.2 pts
Home edge in toss-ups
7.5 to 9.5 20 games
Home Win % .500
Avg Margin 1.7 pts
Neutral zone
6 to 7 33 games
Home Win % .530
Avg Margin 1.4 pts
Slight favorite edge
4.5 to 5.5 12 games
Home Win % .333
Avg Margin -7.0 pts
Big favorites struggle
3 to 4 44 games
Home Win % .557
Avg Margin 1.2 pts
Home edge in toss-ups
0 to 2.5 31 games
Home Win % .290
Avg Margin -2.1 pts
Big favorites struggle

Away Favorite / Home Underdog Performance

10+ 8 games
Away Win % .000
Avg Margin -10.5 pts
Big favorites struggle
7.5 to 9.5 4 games
Away Win % .500
Avg Margin 0.9 pts
Neutral zone
6 to 7 21 games
Away Win % .452
Avg Margin -0.6 pts
Slight underdog edge
4.5 to 5.5 5 games
Away Win % .600
Avg Margin -2.2 pts
Favorites cover well
3 to 4 38 games
Away Win % .553
Avg Margin 0.0 pts
Away favorites solid
0 to 2.5 15 games
Away Win % .533
Avg Margin -1.0 pts
Slight favorite edge

Line Movement Analysis

Lines Moving Up (More points to Fav)

Movement Games Fav Cover % Trend
+0.5 to +1 -- -- --
+1.5 to +2 -- -- --
+2.5+ -- -- --
Sharp money often moves against large line shifts

Lines Moving Down (Fewer points to Fav)

Movement Games Fav Cover % Trend
-0.5 to -1 -- -- --
-1.5 to -2 -- -- --
-2.5+ -- -- --
Reverse line movement signals smart money

Distribution of Win Margins ATS

267 Games Push 1 Pt 2 Pts 3 Pts 4+ Pts 4+ Pct
ATS Win Margin 11 14 14 16 212 .794
While the market is efficient at picking a "middle" number, the actual game outcomes are highly volatile. Most results either "cover with ease" or "miss by a mile," with very little middle ground.

Key Spread Insights

Home Underdogs

--

ATS win rate for home dogs getting 3+ points

Road Favorites

--

Road favs of 7+ pts struggle to cover

Revenge Games

--

Teams facing recent loss to opponent

Post-Bye Week

--

Teams coming off bye week ATS