Home Favorite / Away Underdog Performance

10+ 11 games
Home Win % .727
Avg Margin 11.5 pts
Favorites cover well
7.5 to 9.5 6 games
Home Win % .500
Avg Margin 2.7 pts
Neutral zone
6 to 7 8 games
Home Win % .500
Avg Margin 1.4 pts
Neutral zone
4.5 to 5.5 4 games
Home Win % .750
Avg Margin 4.0 pts
Favorites cover well
3 to 4 11 games
Home Win % .545
Avg Margin 3.7 pts
Slight favorite edge
0 to 2.5 2 games
Home Win % .500
Avg Margin 1.5 pts
Neutral zone

Away Favorite / Home Underdog Performance

10+ 3 games
Away Win % .000
Avg Margin -10.0 pts
Big favorites struggle
6 to 7 5 games
Away Win % .600
Avg Margin 0.1 pts
Favorites cover well
3 to 4 6 games
Away Win % .167
Avg Margin -8.0 pts
Big favorites struggle
0 to 2.5 4 games
Away Win % .500
Avg Margin -9.6 pts
Neutral zone

Line Movement Analysis

Lines Moving Up (More points to Fav)

Movement Games Fav Cover % Trend
+0.5 to +1 -- -- --
+1.5 to +2 -- -- --
+2.5+ -- -- --
Sharp money often moves against large line shifts

Lines Moving Down (Fewer points to Fav)

Movement Games Fav Cover % Trend
-0.5 to -1 -- -- --
-1.5 to -2 -- -- --
-2.5+ -- -- --
Reverse line movement signals smart money

Distribution of Win Margins ATS

60 Games Push 1 Pt 2 Pts 3 Pts 4+ Pts 4+ Pct
ATS Win Margin 0 2 2 3 53 .883
While the market is efficient at picking a "middle" number, the actual game outcomes are highly volatile. Most results either "cover with ease" or "miss by a mile," with very little middle ground.

Key Spread Insights

Home Underdogs

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ATS win rate for home dogs getting 3+ points

Road Favorites

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Road favs of 7+ pts struggle to cover

Revenge Games

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Teams facing recent loss to opponent

Post-Bye Week

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Teams coming off bye week ATS