Point Spreads

Map spread performance taxes to find where public sentiment splits from the sharp reality

Home Favorite / Away Underdog Performance

10+ 27 games
Home Win % .519
Avg Margin 3.3 pts
Slight favorite edge
7.5 to 9.5 24 games
Home Win % .354
Avg Margin -1.5 pts
Big favorites struggle
6 to 7 32 games
Home Win % .594
Avg Margin 3.8 pts
Home edge in toss-ups
4.5 to 5.5 17 games
Home Win % .588
Avg Margin 3.9 pts
Home edge in toss-ups
3 to 4 49 games
Home Win % .316
Avg Margin -2.7 pts
Big favorites struggle
0.5 to 2.5 24 games
Home Win % .479
Avg Margin -1.9 pts
Slight underdog edge

Away Favorite / Home Underdog Performance

10+ 2 games
Away Win % .500
Avg Margin 0.3 pts
Neutral zone
7.5 to 9.5 4 games
Away Win % .000
Avg Margin -5.6 pts
Big favorites struggle
6 to 7 14 games
Away Win % .643
Avg Margin 6.9 pts
Favorites cover well
4.5 to 5.5 10 games
Away Win % .800
Avg Margin 5.4 pts
Favorites cover well
3 to 4 38 games
Away Win % .434
Avg Margin -0.7 pts
Dogs covering
0.5 to 2.5 24 games
Away Win % .521
Avg Margin -2.2 pts
Slight favorite edge

Pick'em / No Favorite

Even 2 games
Home Win % .000
Away Win % 1.000
Avg Margin -9.0 pts
Home side rarely covers

Line Movement Analysis

Lines Moving Up (More points to Fav)

Movement Games Fav Cover % Trend
+0.5 to +1 66 55.3% Cover
+1.5 to +2 28 55.4% Cover
+2.5+ 10 35% Fade
Favorites covered at every move size holding at least 20 games - from 55.3% of 66 games (+0.5 to +1) to 55.4% of 28 games (+1.5 to +2). At these sample sizes the gap is within normal variation.

Lines Moving Down (Fewer points to Fav)

Movement Games Fav Cover % Trend
-0.5 to -1 66 43.2% Fade
-1.5 to -2 23 45.7% Fade
-2.5+ 6 33.3% Fade
Favorites came up short at 43.2% of 66 games (-0.5 to -1), while 45.7% of 23 games (-1.5 to -2) sits inside the 45-55% no-signal band. At this sample size the gap is within normal variation.

Distribution of Win Margins ATS

267 Games Push 1 Pt 2 Pts 3 Pts 4+ Pts 4+ Pct
ATS Win Margin 9 16 15 15 212 .794
While the market is efficient at picking a "middle" number, the actual game outcomes are highly volatile. Most results either "cover with ease" or "miss by a mile," with very little middle ground.

Key Spread Insights

Home Underdogs

49.3%

ATS win rate for home dogs getting 3+ points

Road Favorites

50%

Road favs of 7+ pts struggle to cover

Revenge Games

52.3%

Teams facing recent loss to opponent

Post-Bye Week

56.3%

Teams coming off bye week ATS