Point Spreads

Map spread performance taxes to find where public sentiment splits from the sharp reality

Home Favorite / Away Underdog Performance

10+ 1 games
Home Win % .000
Avg Margin -5.5 pts
Big favorites struggle
6 to 7 3 games
Home Win % 1.000
Avg Margin 5.3 pts
Favorites cover well
3 to 4 6 games
Home Win % .667
Avg Margin 0.8 pts
Favorites cover well
0.5 to 2.5 5 games
Home Win % .500
Avg Margin 5.3 pts
Neutral zone

Away Favorite / Home Underdog Performance

3 to 4 1 games
Away Win % .500
Avg Margin 0.0 pts
Neutral zone
0.5 to 2.5 1 games
Away Win % 1.000
Avg Margin 5.5 pts
Favorites cover well

Pick'em / No Favorite

Line Movement Analysis

Lines Moving Up (More points to Fav)

Movement Games Fav Cover % Trend
+0.5 to +1 3 100% Cover
+1.5 to +2 2 50% Fade
+2.5+ -- -- --
No movement range holds 20 games (the largest holds 3), so these cover rates are too thin to read.

Lines Moving Down (Fewer points to Fav)

Movement Games Fav Cover % Trend
-0.5 to -1 7 57.1% Cover
-1.5 to -2 -- -- --
-2.5+ -- -- --
No movement range holds 20 games (the largest holds 7), so these cover rates are too thin to read.

Distribution of Win Margins ATS

17 Games Push 1 Pt 2 Pts 3 Pts 4+ Pts 4+ Pct
ATS Win Margin 2 2 2 0 11 .647
While the market is efficient at picking a "middle" number, the actual game outcomes are highly volatile. Most results either "cover with ease" or "miss by a mile," with very little middle ground.

Key Spread Insights

Home Underdogs

50%

ATS win rate for home dogs getting 3+ points

Road Favorites

--

Road favs of 7+ pts struggle to cover

Revenge Games

35.3%

Teams facing recent loss to opponent

Post-Bye Week

100%

Teams coming off bye week ATS