This is the Point Spread trends page for the 2018 season. Every NFL game has a point spread, but not all spreads are created equal. Our data reveals the historical win rate for each spread, helping you find where the value lies. We analyzed thousands of NFL games to uncover the historical winning percentages for every point spread. Here you can see the breakdown of this data by division, conference and inter-conference.
2018-2019
League | All Games | 2018
| H Line | Games | Push | H Wins | H Win Pct | H Margin | V Wins | V Win Pct | V Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -10+ | 27 | 0 | 11 | .407 | -1.2 | 16 | .593 | 1.2 |
| -7.5 to -9.5 | 23 | 0 | 7 | .304 | -3.4 | 16 | .696 | 3.4 |
| -6 to -7 | 32 | 1 | 15 | .484 | 1 | 16 | .516 | -1 |
| -4.5 to -5.5 | 17 | 0 | 12 | .706 | 4.2 | 5 | .294 | -4.2 |
| -3 to -4 | 51 | 3 | 20 | .422 | -0.3 | 28 | .578 | 0.3 |
| 0 to -2.5 | 27 | 0 | 11 | .407 | -1.7 | 16 | .593 | 1.7 |
| Even | 4 | 0 | 2 | .500 | 1.5 | 2 | .500 | -1.5 |
| 0 to 2.5 | 15 | 0 | 8 | .533 | -0.8 | 7 | .467 | 0.8 |
| 3 to 4 | 40 | 0 | 22 | .550 | 0.8 | 18 | .450 | -0.8 |
| 4.5 to 5.5 | 5 | 0 | 3 | .600 | -5.3 | 2 | .400 | 5.3 |
| 6 to 7 | 11 | 1 | 6 | .591 | 3.4 | 4 | .409 | -3.4 |
| 7.5 to 9.5 | 7 | 0 | 3 | .429 | -1.5 | 4 | .571 | 1.5 |
| 10+ | 8 | 0 | 2 | .250 | -2.9 | 6 | .750 | 2.9 |
| Overall | 267 | 5 | 122 | .466 | -0.3 | 140 | .534 | 0.3 |
Division | All Games | 2018
| H Line | Games | Push | H Wins | H Win Pct | H Margin | V Wins | V Win Pct | V Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -10+ | 12 | 0 | 6 | .500 | 2.2 | 6 | .500 | -2.2 |
| -7.5 to -9.5 | 8 | 0 | 1 | .125 | -15.8 | 7 | .875 | 15.8 |
| -6 to -7 | 12 | 0 | 6 | .500 | 0.8 | 6 | .500 | -0.8 |
| -4.5 to -5.5 | 8 | 0 | 6 | .750 | 6.4 | 2 | .250 | -6.4 |
| -3 to -4 | 15 | 1 | 7 | .500 | -3.4 | 7 | .500 | 3.4 |
| 0 to -2.5 | 8 | 0 | 3 | .375 | -2.3 | 5 | .625 | 2.3 |
| 0 to 2.5 | 4 | 0 | 2 | .500 | 2.1 | 2 | .500 | -2.1 |
| 3 to 4 | 15 | 0 | 10 | .667 | 0.7 | 5 | .333 | -0.7 |
| 4.5 to 5.5 | 2 | 0 | 1 | .500 | -2.5 | 1 | .500 | 2.5 |
| 6 to 7 | 4 | 0 | 1 | .250 | -8.4 | 3 | .750 | 8.4 |
| 7.5 to 9.5 | 4 | 0 | 2 | .500 | -2.3 | 2 | .500 | 2.3 |
| 10+ | 5 | 0 | 1 | .200 | -2.2 | 4 | .800 | 2.2 |
| Overall | 97 | 1 | 46 | .479 | -1.5 | 50 | .521 | 1.5 |
Conference | All Games | 2018
| H Line | Games | Push | H Wins | H Win Pct | H Margin | V Wins | V Win Pct | V Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -10+ | 9 | 0 | 3 | .333 | -3.9 | 6 | .667 | 3.9 |
| -7.5 to -9.5 | 8 | 0 | 3 | .375 | 4.9 | 5 | .625 | -4.9 |
| -6 to -7 | 14 | 1 | 8 | .607 | 6.4 | 5 | .393 | -6.4 |
| -4.5 to -5.5 | 4 | 0 | 3 | .750 | 5.5 | 1 | .250 | -5.5 |
| -3 to -4 | 27 | 1 | 10 | .389 | -1 | 16 | .611 | 1 |
| 0 to -2.5 | 12 | 0 | 6 | .500 | -3.5 | 6 | .500 | 3.5 |
| Even | 3 | 0 | 2 | .667 | 4.7 | 1 | .333 | -4.7 |
| 0 to 2.5 | 5 | 0 | 4 | .800 | 5.7 | 1 | .200 | -5.7 |
| 3 to 4 | 14 | 0 | 7 | .500 | 0.4 | 7 | .500 | -0.4 |
| 4.5 to 5.5 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1.000 | 5 | 0 | .000 | -5 |
| 6 to 7 | 2 | 1 | 1 | .750 | 15.3 | 0 | .250 | -15.3 |
| 7.5 to 9.5 | 3 | 0 | 1 | .333 | -0.5 | 2 | .667 | 0.5 |
| 10+ | 2 | 0 | 1 | .500 | 4.5 | 1 | .500 | -4.5 |
| Overall | 105 | 3 | 51 | .500 | 1.4 | 51 | .500 | -1.4 |
Inter-Conference | All Games | 2018
| H Line | Games | Push | H Wins | H Win Pct | H Margin | V Wins | V Win Pct | V Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -10+ | 6 | 0 | 2 | .333 | -4.1 | 4 | .667 | 4.1 |
| -7.5 to -9.5 | 7 | 0 | 3 | .429 | 1.4 | 4 | .571 | -1.4 |
| -6 to -7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | .167 | -11.3 | 5 | .833 | 11.3 |
| -4.5 to -5.5 | 5 | 0 | 3 | .600 | -0.5 | 2 | .400 | 0.5 |
| -3 to -4 | 9 | 1 | 3 | .389 | 6.8 | 5 | .611 | -6.8 |
| 0 to -2.5 | 7 | 0 | 2 | .286 | 2 | 5 | .714 | -2 |
| Even | 1 | 0 | 0 | .000 | -8 | 1 | 1.000 | 8 |
| 0 to 2.5 | 6 | 0 | 2 | .333 | -8.1 | 4 | .667 | 8.1 |
| 3 to 4 | 11 | 0 | 5 | .455 | 1.5 | 6 | .545 | -1.5 |
| 4.5 to 5.5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | .000 | -31.5 | 1 | 1.000 | 31.5 |
| 6 to 7 | 5 | 0 | 4 | .800 | 8.1 | 1 | .200 | -8.1 |
| 10+ | 1 | 0 | 0 | .000 | -21.5 | 1 | 1.000 | 21.5 |
| Overall | 65 | 1 | 25 | .392 | -1 | 39 | .608 | 1 |