Point Spreads

Map spread performance taxes to find where public sentiment splits from the sharp reality

Home Favorite / Away Underdog Performance

10+ 4 games
Home Win % .500
Avg Margin 5.0 pts
Neutral zone
7.5 to 9.5 3 games
Home Win % .000
Avg Margin -1.3 pts
Big favorites struggle
6 to 7 2 games
Home Win % 1.000
Avg Margin 1.5 pts
Favorites cover well
4.5 to 5.5 1 games
Home Win % .000
Avg Margin -9.5 pts
Big favorites struggle
3 to 4 2 games
Home Win % .000
Avg Margin -6.5 pts
Big favorites struggle
0.5 to 2.5 2 games
Home Win % .000
Avg Margin -7.5 pts
Big favorites struggle

Away Favorite / Home Underdog Performance

7.5 to 9.5 1 games
Away Win % .000
Avg Margin -4.5 pts
Big favorites struggle
4.5 to 5.5 1 games
Away Win % .000
Avg Margin -2.0 pts
Big favorites struggle
3 to 4 1 games
Away Win % .000
Avg Margin -9.0 pts
Big favorites struggle
0.5 to 2.5 2 games
Away Win % .500
Avg Margin 5.5 pts
Neutral zone

Pick'em / No Favorite

Line Movement Analysis

Lines Moving Up (More points to Fav)

Movement Games Fav Cover % Trend
+0.5 to +1 6 33.3% Fade
+1.5 to +2 2 100% Cover
+2.5+ 2 0% Fade
No movement range holds 20 games (the largest holds 6), so these cover rates are too thin to read.

Lines Moving Down (Fewer points to Fav)

Movement Games Fav Cover % Trend
-0.5 to -1 2 50% Fade
-1.5 to -2 2 0% Fade
-2.5+ 1 0% Fade
No movement range holds 20 games (the largest holds 2), so these cover rates are too thin to read.

Distribution of Win Margins ATS

19 Games Push 1 Pt 2 Pts 3 Pts 4+ Pts 4+ Pct
ATS Win Margin 0 4 3 2 10 .526
While the market is efficient at picking a "middle" number, the actual game outcomes are highly volatile. Most results either "cover with ease" or "miss by a mile," with very little middle ground.

Key Spread Insights

Home Underdogs

100%

ATS win rate for home dogs getting 3+ points

Road Favorites

0%

Road favs of 7+ pts struggle to cover

Revenge Games

55.6%

Teams facing recent loss to opponent

Post-Bye Week

0%

Teams coming off bye week ATS