Point Spreads

Map spread performance taxes to find where public sentiment splits from the sharp reality

Home Favorite / Away Underdog Performance

10+ 1 games
Home Win % .000
Avg Margin -10.5 pts
Big favorites struggle
7.5 to 9.5 2 games
Home Win % .500
Avg Margin -1.5 pts
Neutral zone
3 to 4 5 games
Home Win % .600
Avg Margin 9.2 pts
Favorites cover well
0.5 to 2.5 2 games
Home Win % .500
Avg Margin 1.5 pts
Neutral zone

Away Favorite / Home Underdog Performance

7.5 to 9.5 1 games
Away Win % .000
Avg Margin -5.0 pts
Big favorites struggle
6 to 7 1 games
Away Win % .000
Avg Margin -14.0 pts
Big favorites struggle
3 to 4 3 games
Away Win % 1.000
Avg Margin 18.8 pts
Favorites cover well
0.5 to 2.5 4 games
Away Win % .750
Avg Margin 6.8 pts
Favorites cover well

Pick'em / No Favorite

Line Movement Analysis

Lines Moving Up (More points to Fav)

Movement Games Fav Cover % Trend
+0.5 to +1 5 60% Cover
+1.5 to +2 2 0% Fade
+2.5+ -- -- --
No movement range holds 20 games (the largest holds 5), so these cover rates are too thin to read.

Lines Moving Down (Fewer points to Fav)

Movement Games Fav Cover % Trend
-0.5 to -1 8 62.5% Cover
-1.5 to -2 2 50% Fade
-2.5+ -- -- --
No movement range holds 20 games (the largest holds 8), so these cover rates are too thin to read.

Distribution of Win Margins ATS

19 Games Push 1 Pt 2 Pts 3 Pts 4+ Pts 4+ Pct
ATS Win Margin 0 0 2 0 17 .895
While the market is efficient at picking a "middle" number, the actual game outcomes are highly volatile. Most results either "cover with ease" or "miss by a mile," with very little middle ground.

Key Spread Insights

Home Underdogs

40%

ATS win rate for home dogs getting 3+ points

Road Favorites

0%

Road favs of 7+ pts struggle to cover

Revenge Games

47.4%

Teams facing recent loss to opponent

Post-Bye Week

--

Teams coming off bye week ATS