This is the Point Spread trends page for the 5-Year season. Every NFL game has a point spread, but not all spreads are created equal. Our data reveals the historical win rate for each spread, helping you find where the value lies. We analyzed thousands of NFL games to uncover the historical winning percentages for every point spread. Here you can see the breakdown of this data by division, conference and inter-conference.

2025 Season 2024 Season 3-Year  5-Year 10-Year
 All Games Regular Season Postseason Monday Night Sunday Night Thursday Night All Primetime
League  | All Games | 5-Year
H Line Games Push H Wins H Win Pct H Margin V Wins V Win Pct V Margin
-10+ 125 5 71 .588 3.3 49 .412 -3.3
-7.5 to -9.5 98 0 46 .469 0.5 52 .531 -0.5
-6 to -7 140 2 70 .507 1.1 68 .493 -1.1
-4.5 to -5.5 83 0 33 .398 -0.5 50 .602 0.5
-3 to -4 255 9 117 .476 0.5 129 .524 -0.5
0 to -2.5 171 2 86 .509 -0.4 83 .491 0.4
Even 12 0 5 .417 -0.1 7 .583 0.1
0 to 2.5 97 0 49 .505 1.4 48 .495 -1.4
3 to 4 233 12 101 .459 -0.1 120 .541 0.1
4.5 to 5.5 51 0 26 .510 0 25 .490 0
6 to 7 82 3 37 .470 -2.3 42 .530 2.3
7.5 to 9.5 39 0 24 .615 0.6 15 .385 -0.6
10+ 38 1 24 .645 4.3 13 .355 -4.3
Overall 1424 34 689 .496 0.5 701 .504 -0.5
Division  | All Games | 5-Year
H Line Games Push H Wins H Win Pct H Margin V Wins V Win Pct V Margin
-10+ 55 3 28 .536 1.8 24 .464 -1.8
-7.5 to -9.5 37 0 19 .514 1.4 18 .486 -1.4
-6 to -7 46 0 24 .522 2.6 22 .478 -2.6
-4.5 to -5.5 27 0 9 .333 -1.3 18 .667 1.3
-3 to -4 89 1 36 .410 0.7 52 .590 -0.7
0 to -2.5 50 1 23 .470 -0.8 26 .530 0.8
Even 1 0 0 .000 -14 1 1.000 14
0 to 2.5 24 0 10 .417 -0.1 14 .583 0.1
3 to 4 83 3 42 .524 0.9 38 .476 -0.9
4.5 to 5.5 20 0 12 .600 3 8 .400 -3
6 to 7 32 2 13 .438 -1.7 17 .563 1.7
7.5 to 9.5 13 0 9 .692 3.7 4 .308 -3.7
10+ 15 0 6 .400 -1.6 9 .600 1.6
Overall 492 10 231 .480 0.7 251 .520 -0.7
Conference  | All Games | 5-Year
H Line Games Push H Wins H Win Pct H Margin V Wins V Win Pct V Margin
-10+ 36 1 20 .569 4 15 .431 -4
-7.5 to -9.5 41 0 21 .512 1.2 20 .488 -1.2
-6 to -7 51 0 25 .490 0.2 26 .510 -0.2
-4.5 to -5.5 34 0 14 .412 -1.1 20 .588 1.1
-3 to -4 99 4 51 .535 0.8 44 .465 -0.8
0 to -2.5 66 0 39 .591 1 27 .409 -1
Even 4 0 3 .750 3 1 .250 -3
0 to 2.5 34 0 21 .618 1.1 13 .382 -1.1
3 to 4 91 3 40 .456 0.6 48 .544 -0.6
4.5 to 5.5 17 0 9 .529 0.7 8 .471 -0.7
6 to 7 25 0 12 .480 -3.4 13 .520 3.4
7.5 to 9.5 14 0 9 .643 -0.7 5 .357 0.7
10+ 15 1 12 .833 11 2 .167 -11
Overall 527 9 276 .532 0.9 242 .468 -0.9
Inter-Conference  | All Games | 5-Year
H Line Games Push H Wins H Win Pct H Margin V Wins V Win Pct V Margin
-10+ 34 1 23 .691 5.1 10 .309 -5.1
-7.5 to -9.5 20 0 6 .300 -2.5 14 .700 2.5
-6 to -7 43 2 21 .512 0.4 20 .488 -0.4
-4.5 to -5.5 22 0 10 .455 1.5 12 .545 -1.5
-3 to -4 67 4 30 .478 -0.5 33 .522 0.5
0 to -2.5 55 1 24 .445 -1.8 30 .555 1.8
Even 7 0 2 .286 0.1 5 .714 -0.1
0 to 2.5 39 0 18 .462 2.6 21 .538 -2.6
3 to 4 59 6 19 .373 -2.6 34 .627 2.6
4.5 to 5.5 14 0 5 .357 -5.1 9 .643 5.1
6 to 7 25 1 12 .500 -2 12 .500 2
7.5 to 9.5 12 0 6 .500 -1.3 6 .500 1.3
10+ 8 0 6 .750 3 2 .250 -3
Overall 405 15 182 .468 -0.3 208 .532 0.3
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