This is the Point Spread trends page for the 5-Year season. Every NFL game has a point spread, but not all spreads are created equal. Our data reveals the historical win rate for each spread, helping you find where the value lies. We analyzed thousands of NFL games to uncover the historical winning percentages for every point spread. Here you can see the breakdown of this data by division, conference and inter-conference.

2025 Season 2024 Season 3-Year  5-Year 10-Year
All Games  Regular Season Postseason Monday Night Sunday Night Thursday Night All Primetime
League  | Regular Season | 5-Year
H Line Games Push H Wins H Win Pct H Margin V Wins V Win Pct V Margin
-10+ 143 5 78 .563 2.7 60 .437 -2.7
-7.5 to -9.5 108 0 51 .472 0.3 57 .528 -0.3
-6 to -7 164 2 83 .512 0.9 79 .488 -0.9
-4.5 to -5.5 84 0 30 .357 -1 54 .643 1
-3 to -4 279 10 125 .466 -0.2 144 .534 0.2
0 to -2.5 194 2 98 .510 -0.6 94 .490 0.6
Even 14 0 6 .429 -0.8 8 .571 0.8
0 to 2.5 100 0 48 .480 1.1 52 .520 -1.1
3 to 4 266 13 118 .468 0 135 .532 0
4.5 to 5.5 58 0 29 .500 -0.2 29 .500 0.2
6 to 7 107 3 51 .491 -2.4 53 .509 2.4
7.5 to 9.5 51 0 31 .608 -0.1 20 .392 0.1
10+ 47 1 29 .628 3.5 17 .372 -3.5
Overall 1615 36 777 .492 0.2 802 .508 -0.2
Division  | Regular Season | 5-Year
H Line Games Push H Wins H Win Pct H Margin V Wins V Win Pct V Margin
-10+ 62 3 30 .508 1.3 29 .492 -1.3
-7.5 to -9.5 38 0 20 .526 1.7 18 .474 -1.7
-6 to -7 57 0 29 .509 1.9 28 .491 -1.9
-4.5 to -5.5 28 0 7 .250 -3.6 21 .750 3.6
-3 to -4 104 1 43 .418 0.1 60 .582 -0.1
0 to -2.5 60 1 29 .492 -0.1 30 .508 0.1
Even 1 0 0 .000 -14 1 1.000 14
0 to 2.5 26 0 10 .385 -0.9 16 .615 0.9
3 to 4 96 3 50 .536 1.4 43 .464 -1.4
4.5 to 5.5 23 0 14 .609 2.7 9 .391 -2.7
6 to 7 43 2 20 .488 -1.8 21 .512 1.8
7.5 to 9.5 20 0 13 .650 1.1 7 .350 -1.1
10+ 18 0 8 .444 -1.1 10 .556 1.1
Overall 576 10 273 .483 0.4 293 .517 -0.4
Conference  | Regular Season | 5-Year
H Line Games Push H Wins H Win Pct H Margin V Wins V Win Pct V Margin
-10+ 40 1 23 .588 3.8 16 .413 -3.8
-7.5 to -9.5 44 0 22 .500 0.9 22 .500 -0.9
-6 to -7 58 0 30 .517 0.7 28 .483 -0.7
-4.5 to -5.5 33 0 12 .364 -1.1 21 .636 1.1
-3 to -4 100 5 49 .515 -0.1 46 .485 0.1
0 to -2.5 73 0 40 .548 -0.1 33 .452 0.1
Even 6 0 4 .667 0.3 2 .333 -0.3
0 to 2.5 35 0 20 .571 0.7 15 .429 -0.7
3 to 4 98 3 44 .464 0.3 51 .536 -0.3
4.5 to 5.5 19 0 10 .526 0.5 9 .474 -0.5
6 to 7 34 0 18 .529 -2.5 16 .471 2.5
7.5 to 9.5 18 0 12 .667 0.1 6 .333 -0.1
10+ 17 1 12 .735 7.4 4 .265 -7.4
Overall 575 10 296 .523 0.5 269 .477 -0.5
Inter-Conference  | Regular Season | 5-Year
H Line Games Push H Wins H Win Pct H Margin V Wins V Win Pct V Margin
-10+ 41 1 25 .622 3.7 15 .378 -3.7
-7.5 to -9.5 26 0 9 .346 -2.9 17 .654 2.9
-6 to -7 49 2 24 .510 0.1 23 .490 -0.1
-4.5 to -5.5 23 0 11 .478 2.2 12 .522 -2.2
-3 to -4 75 4 33 .467 -0.8 38 .533 0.8
0 to -2.5 61 1 29 .484 -1.6 31 .516 1.6
Even 7 0 2 .286 0.1 5 .714 -0.1
0 to 2.5 39 0 18 .462 2.8 21 .538 -2.8
3 to 4 72 7 24 .382 -2.4 41 .618 2.4
4.5 to 5.5 16 0 5 .313 -5.1 11 .688 5.1
6 to 7 30 1 13 .450 -3 16 .550 3
7.5 to 9.5 13 0 6 .462 -2.4 7 .538 2.4
10+ 12 0 9 .750 4.8 3 .250 -4.8
Overall 464 16 208 .466 -0.5 240 .534 0.5
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