This is the Point Spread trends page for the 5-Year season. Every NFL game has a point spread, but not all spreads are created equal. Our data reveals the historical win rate for each spread, helping you find where the value lies. We analyzed thousands of NFL games to uncover the historical winning percentages for every point spread. Here you can see the breakdown of this data by division, conference and inter-conference.

2025 Season 2024 Season 3-Year  5-Year 10-Year
All Games  Regular Season Postseason Monday Night Sunday Night Thursday Night All Primetime
League  | Regular Season | 5-Year
H Line Games Push H Wins H Win Pct H Margin V Wins V Win Pct V Margin
-10+ 120 5 68 .588 3.4 47 .413 -3.4
-7.5 to -9.5 89 0 41 .461 0.3 48 .539 -0.3
-6 to -7 134 2 67 .507 1.1 65 .493 -1.1
-4.5 to -5.5 74 0 28 .378 -0.7 46 .622 0.7
-3 to -4 243 9 112 .479 0.4 122 .521 -0.4
0 to -2.5 162 2 81 .506 -0.4 79 .494 0.4
Even 12 0 5 .417 -0.1 7 .583 0.1
0 to 2.5 92 0 44 .478 1.1 48 .522 -1.1
3 to 4 225 12 95 .449 -0.4 118 .551 0.4
4.5 to 5.5 50 0 25 .500 -0.1 25 .500 0.1
6 to 7 82 3 37 .470 -2.3 42 .530 2.3
7.5 to 9.5 39 0 24 .615 0.6 15 .385 -0.6
10+ 37 1 23 .635 4.3 13 .365 -4.3
Overall 1359 34 650 .491 0.4 675 .509 -0.4
Division  | Regular Season | 5-Year
H Line Games Push H Wins H Win Pct H Margin V Wins V Win Pct V Margin
-10+ 54 3 28 .546 2 23 .454 -2
-7.5 to -9.5 33 0 16 .485 0.5 17 .515 -0.5
-6 to -7 45 0 23 .511 2.1 22 .489 -2.1
-4.5 to -5.5 25 0 7 .280 -3.5 18 .720 3.5
-3 to -4 87 1 35 .408 0.5 51 .592 -0.5
0 to -2.5 49 1 22 .459 -0.9 26 .541 0.9
Even 1 0 0 .000 -14 1 1.000 14
0 to 2.5 23 0 9 .391 -0.3 14 .609 0.3
3 to 4 83 3 42 .524 0.9 38 .476 -0.9
4.5 to 5.5 20 0 12 .600 3 8 .400 -3
6 to 7 32 2 13 .438 -1.7 17 .563 1.7
7.5 to 9.5 13 0 9 .692 3.7 4 .308 -3.7
10+ 15 0 6 .400 -1.6 9 .600 1.6
Overall 480 10 222 .473 0.5 248 .527 -0.5
Conference  | Regular Season | 5-Year
H Line Games Push H Wins H Win Pct H Margin V Wins V Win Pct V Margin
-10+ 32 1 17 .547 3.9 14 .453 -3.9
-7.5 to -9.5 36 0 19 .528 1.7 17 .472 -1.7
-6 to -7 46 0 23 .500 0.8 23 .500 -0.8
-4.5 to -5.5 28 0 11 .393 -0.7 17 .607 0.7
-3 to -4 89 4 47 .551 0.9 38 .449 -0.9
0 to -2.5 59 0 35 .593 1.3 24 .407 -1.3
Even 4 0 3 .750 3 1 .250 -3
0 to 2.5 32 0 19 .594 1 13 .406 -1
3 to 4 83 3 34 .428 -0.2 46 .572 0.2
4.5 to 5.5 17 0 9 .529 0.7 8 .471 -0.7
6 to 7 25 0 12 .480 -3.4 13 .520 3.4
7.5 to 9.5 14 0 9 .643 -0.7 5 .357 0.7
10+ 14 1 11 .821 11.3 2 .179 -11.3
Overall 479 9 249 .529 1 221 .471 -1
Inter-Conference  | Regular Season | 5-Year
H Line Games Push H Wins H Win Pct H Margin V Wins V Win Pct V Margin
-10+ 34 1 23 .691 5.1 10 .309 -5.1
-7.5 to -9.5 20 0 6 .300 -2.5 14 .700 2.5
-6 to -7 43 2 21 .512 0.4 20 .488 -0.4
-4.5 to -5.5 21 0 10 .476 2.5 11 .524 -2.5
-3 to -4 67 4 30 .478 -0.5 33 .522 0.5
0 to -2.5 54 1 24 .454 -1.8 29 .546 1.8
Even 7 0 2 .286 0.1 5 .714 -0.1
0 to 2.5 37 0 16 .432 2.1 21 .568 -2.1
3 to 4 59 6 19 .373 -2.6 34 .627 2.6
4.5 to 5.5 13 0 4 .308 -5.7 9 .692 5.7
6 to 7 25 1 12 .500 -2 12 .500 2
7.5 to 9.5 12 0 6 .500 -1.3 6 .500 1.3
10+ 8 0 6 .750 3 2 .250 -3
Overall 400 15 179 .466 -0.3 206 .534 0.3
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