This is the Point Spread trends page for the 5-Year season. Every NFL game has a point spread, but not all spreads are created equal. Our data reveals the historical win rate for each spread, helping you find where the value lies. We analyzed thousands of NFL games to uncover the historical winning percentages for every point spread. Here you can see the breakdown of this data by division, conference and inter-conference.

2026 Season 2025 Season 3-Year  5-Year 10-Year
All Games Regular Season Postseason Monday Night Sunday Night Thursday Night  All Primetime
League  | Primetime | 5-Year
H Line Games Push H Wins H Win Pct H Margin V Wins V Win Pct V Margin
-10+ 27 1 16 .611 2.1 10 .389 -2.1
-7.5 to -9.5 29 0 12 .414 -0.5 17 .586 0.5
-6 to -7 34 1 18 .544 0.7 15 .456 -0.7
-4.5 to -5.5 26 0 10 .385 0.7 16 .615 -0.7
-3 to -4 61 3 31 .533 1.9 27 .467 -1.9
0 to -2.5 40 0 21 .525 -0.8 19 .475 0.8
Even 2 0 1 .500 -6.5 1 .500 6.5
0 to 2.5 21 0 11 .524 -0.1 10 .476 0.1
3 to 4 61 2 25 .426 -1.1 34 .574 1.1
4.5 to 5.5 9 0 5 .556 -0.6 4 .444 0.6
6 to 7 20 1 10 .525 -0.4 9 .475 0.4
7.5 to 9.5 8 0 4 .500 -1.7 4 .500 1.7
10+ 7 0 5 .714 1.6 2 .286 -1.6
Overall 345 8 169 .501 0.2 168 .499 -0.2
Division  | Primetime | 5-Year
H Line Games Push H Wins H Win Pct H Margin V Wins V Win Pct V Margin
-10+ 10 1 6 .650 -0.8 3 .350 0.8
-7.5 to -9.5 11 0 6 .545 2.5 5 .455 -2.5
-6 to -7 11 0 6 .545 3.8 5 .455 -3.8
-4.5 to -5.5 7 0 2 .286 1.6 5 .714 -1.6
-3 to -4 22 0 10 .455 3.2 12 .545 -3.2
0 to -2.5 11 0 6 .545 0.6 5 .455 -0.6
0 to 2.5 8 0 3 .375 -0.5 5 .625 0.5
3 to 4 23 1 10 .457 -0.3 12 .543 0.3
4.5 to 5.5 4 0 2 .500 -3 2 .500 3
6 to 7 4 0 1 .250 1.9 3 .750 -1.9
7.5 to 9.5 1 0 0 .000 -8.5 1 1.000 8.5
10+ 3 0 2 .667 -1.3 1 .333 1.3
Overall 115 2 54 .478 1.1 59 .522 -1.1
Conference  | Primetime | 5-Year
H Line Games Push H Wins H Win Pct H Margin V Wins V Win Pct V Margin
-10+ 11 0 7 .636 3.8 4 .364 -3.8
-7.5 to -9.5 12 0 5 .417 -0.8 7 .583 0.8
-6 to -7 12 0 6 .500 0 6 .500 0
-4.5 to -5.5 14 0 6 .429 0 8 .571 0
-3 to -4 26 1 15 .596 1.1 10 .404 -1.1
0 to -2.5 17 0 12 .706 1 5 .294 -1
Even 2 0 1 .500 -6.5 1 .500 6.5
0 to 2.5 7 0 5 .714 2.3 2 .286 -2.3
3 to 4 26 0 13 .500 1.1 13 .500 -1.1
4.5 to 5.5 4 0 3 .750 2.4 1 .250 -2.4
6 to 7 6 0 4 .667 1 2 .333 -1
7.5 to 9.5 5 0 4 .800 3.3 1 .200 -3.3
10+ 2 0 2 1.000 8.8 0 .000 -8.8
Overall 144 1 83 .580 1.1 60 .420 -1.1
Inter-Conference  | Primetime | 5-Year
H Line Games Push H Wins H Win Pct H Margin V Wins V Win Pct V Margin
-10+ 6 0 3 .500 3.5 3 .500 -3.5
-7.5 to -9.5 6 0 1 .167 -5.5 5 .833 5.5
-6 to -7 11 1 6 .591 -1.5 4 .409 1.5
-4.5 to -5.5 5 0 2 .400 1.4 3 .600 -1.4
-3 to -4 13 2 6 .538 1.1 5 .462 -1.1
0 to -2.5 12 0 3 .250 -4.8 9 .750 4.8
0 to 2.5 6 0 3 .500 -2.5 3 .500 2.5
3 to 4 12 1 2 .208 -7.2 9 .792 7.2
4.5 to 5.5 1 0 0 .000 -2.5 1 1.000 2.5
6 to 7 10 1 5 .550 -2.2 4 .450 2.2
7.5 to 9.5 2 0 0 .000 -10.8 2 1.000 10.8
10+ 2 0 1 .500 -1.3 1 .500 1.3
Overall 86 5 32 .401 -2.5 49 .599 2.5
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