This is the Point Spread trends page for the 10-Year season. Every NFL game has a point spread, but not all spreads are created equal. Our data reveals the historical win rate for each spread, helping you find where the value lies. We analyzed thousands of NFL games to uncover the historical winning percentages for every point spread. Here you can see the breakdown of this data by division, conference and inter-conference.

2025 Season 2024 Season 3-Year 5-Year  10-Year
All Games  Regular Season Postseason Monday Night Sunday Night Thursday Night All Primetime
League  | Regular Season | 10-Year
H Line Games Push H Wins H Win Pct H Margin V Wins V Win Pct V Margin
-10+ 256 6 132 .527 1.3 118 .473 -1.3
-7.5 to -9.5 200 0 89 .445 -0.4 111 .555 0.4
-6 to -7 313 11 148 .490 0.7 154 .510 -0.7
-4.5 to -5.5 161 1 65 .407 -1.5 95 .593 1.5
-3 to -4 523 25 234 .471 0.2 264 .529 -0.2
0 to -2.5 322 2 162 .506 -0.9 158 .494 0.9
Even 37 0 15 .405 -1.5 22 .595 1.5
0 to 2.5 181 7 86 .494 0.8 88 .506 -0.8
3 to 4 469 19 224 .498 0.7 226 .502 -0.7
4.5 to 5.5 107 0 51 .477 -1 56 .523 1
6 to 7 168 6 75 .464 -2.4 87 .536 2.4
7.5 to 9.5 81 0 44 .543 -1.6 37 .457 1.6
10+ 77 1 41 .539 1.5 35 .461 -1.5
Overall 2895 78 1,366 .485 0 1,451 .515 0
Division  | Regular Season | 10-Year
H Line Games Push H Wins H Win Pct H Margin V Wins V Win Pct V Margin
-10+ 106 4 53 .519 1.2 49 .481 -1.2
-7.5 to -9.5 73 0 31 .425 -1.6 42 .575 1.6
-6 to -7 110 3 52 .486 1.1 55 .514 -1.1
-4.5 to -5.5 56 0 21 .375 -3 35 .625 3
-3 to -4 195 7 86 .459 -0.1 102 .541 0.1
0 to -2.5 96 1 43 .453 -1 52 .547 1
Even 11 0 4 .364 -3.2 7 .636 3.2
0 to 2.5 51 2 23 .471 0.9 26 .529 -0.9
3 to 4 178 4 91 .522 0.6 83 .478 -0.6
4.5 to 5.5 43 0 23 .535 1.9 20 .465 -1.9
6 to 7 67 2 27 .418 -2.9 38 .582 2.9
7.5 to 9.5 35 0 20 .571 -1.6 15 .429 1.6
10+ 35 0 15 .429 -1.2 20 .571 1.2
Overall 1056 23 489 .474 -0.2 544 .526 0.2
Conference  | Regular Season | 10-Year
H Line Games Push H Wins H Win Pct H Margin V Wins V Win Pct V Margin
-10+ 81 1 40 .500 0.8 40 .500 -0.8
-7.5 to -9.5 76 0 36 .474 1 40 .526 -1
-6 to -7 111 5 55 .518 1.6 51 .482 -1.6
-4.5 to -5.5 64 1 23 .367 -1.8 40 .633 1.8
-3 to -4 198 9 95 .503 0.7 94 .497 -0.7
0 to -2.5 129 0 72 .558 -0.5 57 .442 0.5
Even 13 0 8 .615 2.2 5 .385 -2.2
0 to 2.5 70 3 37 .550 1.5 30 .450 -1.5
3 to 4 170 5 88 .532 1.6 77 .468 -1.6
4.5 to 5.5 37 0 16 .432 -3.3 21 .568 3.3
6 to 7 53 2 24 .472 -3.2 27 .528 3.2
7.5 to 9.5 29 0 17 .586 -0.3 12 .414 0.3
10+ 24 1 15 .646 5 8 .354 -5
Overall 1055 27 526 .511 0.5 502 .489 -0.5
Inter-Conference  | Regular Season | 10-Year
H Line Games Push H Wins H Win Pct H Margin V Wins V Win Pct V Margin
-10+ 69 1 39 .572 1.8 29 .428 -1.8
-7.5 to -9.5 51 0 22 .431 -0.9 29 .569 0.9
-6 to -7 92 3 41 .462 -0.8 48 .538 0.8
-4.5 to -5.5 41 0 21 .512 0.9 20 .488 -0.9
-3 to -4 130 9 53 .442 -0.1 68 .558 0.1
0 to -2.5 97 1 47 .490 -1.2 49 .510 1.2
Even 13 0 3 .231 -3.8 10 .769 3.8
0 to 2.5 60 2 26 .450 0.1 32 .550 -0.1
3 to 4 121 10 45 .413 -0.6 66 .587 0.6
4.5 to 5.5 27 0 12 .444 -2.5 15 .556 2.5
6 to 7 48 2 24 .521 -0.9 22 .479 0.9
7.5 to 9.5 17 0 7 .412 -4 10 .588 4
10+ 18 0 11 .611 2 7 .389 -2
Overall 784 28 351 .466 -0.4 405 .534 0.4
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