This is the Point Spread trends page for the 10-Year season. Every NFL game has a point spread, but not all spreads are created equal. Our data reveals the historical win rate for each spread, helping you find where the value lies. We analyzed thousands of NFL games to uncover the historical winning percentages for every point spread. Here you can see the breakdown of this data by division, conference and inter-conference.

2025 Season 2024 Season 3-Year 5-Year  10-Year
All Games  Regular Season Postseason Monday Night Sunday Night Thursday Night All Primetime
League  | Regular Season | 10-Year
H Line Games Push H Wins H Win Pct H Margin V Wins V Win Pct V Margin
-10+ 239 6 124 .531 1.4 109 .469 -1.4
-7.5 to -9.5 180 0 80 .444 -0.7 100 .556 0.7
-6 to -7 278 8 135 .500 1 135 .500 -1
-4.5 to -5.5 149 1 62 .419 -1.3 86 .581 1.3
-3 to -4 468 20 208 .466 0.1 240 .534 -0.1
0 to -2.5 296 2 151 .514 -0.7 143 .486 0.7
Even 33 0 14 .424 -0.8 19 .576 0.8
0 to 2.5 164 5 79 .497 0.8 80 .503 -0.8
3 to 4 427 18 203 .496 0.8 206 .504 -0.8
4.5 to 5.5 100 0 47 .470 -1 53 .530 1
6 to 7 157 6 70 .465 -2.6 81 .535 2.6
7.5 to 9.5 75 0 41 .547 -1.3 34 .453 1.3
10+ 73 1 39 .541 1.4 33 .459 -1.4
Overall 2639 67 1,253 .487 0 1,319 .513 0
Division  | Regular Season | 10-Year
H Line Games Push H Wins H Win Pct H Margin V Wins V Win Pct V Margin
-10+ 99 4 50 .525 1.4 45 .475 -1.4
-7.5 to -9.5 64 0 28 .438 -2.1 36 .563 2.1
-6 to -7 98 2 49 .510 1.5 47 .490 -1.5
-4.5 to -5.5 53 0 20 .377 -3 33 .623 3
-3 to -4 174 5 78 .463 0.1 91 .537 -0.1
0 to -2.5 85 1 41 .488 -0.4 43 .512 0.4
Even 8 0 3 .375 -2 5 .625 2
0 to 2.5 49 2 22 .469 0.8 25 .531 -0.8
3 to 4 161 4 84 .534 1 73 .466 -1
4.5 to 5.5 42 0 23 .548 2 19 .452 -2
6 to 7 62 2 25 .419 -3.1 35 .581 3.1
7.5 to 9.5 33 0 19 .576 -1 14 .424 1
10+ 32 0 13 .406 -2.3 19 .594 2.3
Overall 960 20 455 .484 0 485 .516 0
Conference  | Regular Season | 10-Year
H Line Games Push H Wins H Win Pct H Margin V Wins V Win Pct V Margin
-10+ 75 1 37 .500 0.9 37 .500 -0.9
-7.5 to -9.5 69 0 32 .464 0.6 37 .536 -0.6
-6 to -7 97 3 50 .531 2 44 .469 -2
-4.5 to -5.5 58 1 21 .371 -1.7 36 .629 1.7
-3 to -4 179 8 85 .497 0.4 86 .503 -0.4
0 to -2.5 121 0 68 .562 -0.3 53 .438 0.3
Even 12 0 8 .667 3.3 4 .333 -3.3
0 to 2.5 60 2 33 .567 1.6 25 .433 -1.6
3 to 4 155 5 77 .513 1.5 73 .487 -1.5
4.5 to 5.5 33 0 14 .424 -2.8 19 .576 2.8
6 to 7 50 2 22 .460 -3.5 26 .540 3.5
7.5 to 9.5 26 0 15 .577 -0.5 11 .423 0.5
10+ 24 1 15 .646 5 8 .354 -5
Overall 959 23 477 .509 0.5 459 .491 -0.5
Inter-Conference  | Regular Season | 10-Year
H Line Games Push H Wins H Win Pct H Margin V Wins V Win Pct V Margin
-10+ 65 1 37 .577 1.9 27 .423 -1.9
-7.5 to -9.5 47 0 20 .426 -0.9 27 .574 0.9
-6 to -7 83 3 36 .452 -0.9 44 .548 0.9
-4.5 to -5.5 38 0 21 .553 1.4 17 .447 -1.4
-3 to -4 115 7 45 .422 -0.3 63 .578 0.3
0 to -2.5 90 1 42 .472 -1.6 47 .528 1.6
Even 13 0 3 .231 -3.8 10 .769 3.8
0 to 2.5 55 1 24 .445 0 30 .555 0
3 to 4 111 9 42 .419 -0.6 60 .581 0.6
4.5 to 5.5 25 0 10 .400 -3.5 15 .600 3.5
6 to 7 45 2 23 .533 -0.8 20 .467 0.8
7.5 to 9.5 16 0 7 .438 -3.3 9 .563 3.3
10+ 17 0 11 .647 3.2 6 .353 -3.2
Overall 720 24 321 .463 -0.5 375 .538 0.5
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