The Jaguars Bought More of What They Already Had
On Monday the Jacksonville Jaguars made three defensive trades in one day. They acquired defensive tackle Jordan Davis from the Eagles for a 2027 first-round pick and a 2029 second-round pick, safety Jessie Bates III from the Falcons, and defensive tackle Davon Godchaux from the Saints for a conditional sixth-round pick. NFL.com reported that the moves answered season-ending injuries to safety Eric Murray and defensive tackle DaVon Hamilton, and that general manager James Gladstone gave up five picks in all, including a first and two seconds.
Jacksonville is one of two AFC contenders that bought at the deadline. The other, Kansas City, went the opposite way and added a receiver; our Chiefs profile covers them.
Our data cannot tell you what a trade will do. It has no way to measure one player's effect, and we will not pretend otherwise. What it can tell you is what the trades were added to, and the short answer is: a defense that was already one of the best in the league, attached to an offense that is better than its reputation.
How they got to 6-2
| Week | Game | Score | Spread faced | Against the spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs Browns | W 34-10 | -8.5 | Beat it by 15.5 | Over 40.5 |
| 2 | at Broncos | L 13-20 | +2.5 | Missed by 4.5 | Under 45.5 |
| 3 | vs Patriots | W 35-6 | -3 | Beat it by 26 | Under 46.5 |
| 4 | at Bengals | W 22-17 | +2.5 | Beat it by 7.5 | Under 51.5 |
| 5 | vs Eagles (London) | W 19-17 | -7.5 | Missed by 5.5 | Under 41.5 |
| 6 | vs Texans (London) | L 31-34 | -2.5 | Missed by 5.5 | Over 42.5 |
| 7 | bye | ||||
| 8 | vs Colts | W 42-7 | -10 | Beat it by 25 | Over 45.5 |
| 9 | at Ravens (Thursday) | W 33-10 | -8.5 | Beat it by 14.5 | Over 40.5 |
6-2 straight up, 5-3 against the spread, 4-4 on the total.
The two London games, at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium and Wembley, are stored in our data as Jacksonville home games, which is how the league lists them. They were not played in Jacksonville, and they were the only stretch where the Jaguars missed the spread in back-to-back weeks. At EverBank Stadium they are 3-0 straight up and 3-0 against the spread, by an average of 22 points beyond the number.
The defense was already the strength. Jacksonville allows 15.1 points a game, second in the league behind the Vikings (14.5). Through Week 8, the figure the trade coverage quoted, it was 15.9, also second; our data agrees. By EPA per play they rank fifth against the pass and second against the run. Two of Monday's three additions are interior linemen, joining a run defense that ranked second before they arrived.
The offense is the part that gets less attention. The Jaguars score 28.6 points a game, fourth in the league, and rank first in passing EPA and sixth in rushing EPA. Put the two halves together and their average margin is +13.5 points a game, the best in the NFL. Their combined EPA rank is first. The power ranking, which also weighs record and strength of schedule (their RPI ranks eighth), has them third, behind the Bills and 49ers.
For context inside the franchise: 15.1 points allowed would be the fewest of any Jaguars season since 2002 (the previous best was 16.8, in both 2005 and 2017), and 28.6 points scored would be the most.
How the market has priced them
The market has noticed, gradually. Jacksonville has been favored by 4.4 points on average this season, the most of any Jaguars team since 2002 (the previous high was 2.6, in 2005) and tied for fourth-most in the league in 2026. In Week 9 they were favored by 8.5 at Baltimore, the most they have ever been favored by on the road in our data. They beat it by 14.5.
Against the spread the Jaguars have beaten the number by an average of 9.1 points a game. Going back to last season they are 17-8 against the spread across 2025 and 2026 (68.0%), the best record in the league over those two seasons. Twenty-five games is not many, and ranking 32 teams on anything puts someone first. Seventeen of twenty-five would turn up by chance about one time in fourteen: a lean, not a finding. It describes a team that has been better than expected for a season and a half, which the market is now pricing in.
What happened to teams that started this well
Through eight games the Jaguars' +13.5 margin ties for the 21st-best start of any team since 2002. Thirty teams from 2002 to 2025 had a margin of 12 points a game or better after eight games.
| 30 teams with a +12 margin through 8 games, 2002-2025 | Record | Pct |
|---|---|---|
| Rest of regular season, straight up | 165-79 | 67.6% |
| Rest of regular season, against the spread | 111-125-8 | 47.1% |
| Rest of regular season as a favorite, against the spread | 86-107-8 | 44.8% |
| Made the playoffs | 28 of 30 | |
| Won the Super Bowl | 1 of 30 | |
| Lost their first playoff game | 14 of 30 |
Pushes count as half in every percentage, the same rule the site uses.
Teams that start this well keep winning about two games in three. Against the spread they finished a little below half, and as favorites they landed at 44.8% over 201 games, a gap that would turn up by chance about one time in eight: a lean, not a finding. It is the same shape we found for the 6-0 teams in our Vikings profile: strong starts carry on straight up while the market catches up with them.
Jacksonville has been priced more modestly than most of that group. Those thirty teams were favored by 6.8 points on average in their first eight games; the Jaguars have been favored by 4.4. And the playoff line is a reminder of how little a hot first half settles: only one of the thirty, the 2009 Saints, won the Super Bowl, and nearly half lost their first playoff game.
Twenty-four seasons against the spread
| 2002-2025 | Record | Pct |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread, regular season | 181-200-8 | 47.6% |
| Against the spread, playoffs | 5-4 | 55.6% |
| Straight up, regular season | 153-236 | 39.3% |
| Straight up, playoffs | 4-5 | 44.4% |
The long-run picture is a franchise that mostly lost, and that the market mostly priced correctly. The Jaguars' 39.3% straight-up record is the third-lowest in the league over those 24 seasons; their 47.6% against the spread ranks 25th of 32, close enough to half that chance covers it. They made the playoffs in five seasons: 2005, 2007, 2017, 2022 and 2025.
Most cuts land close to a coin flip:
| Regular season, 2002-2025 | Against the spread | Pct |
|---|---|---|
| In Jacksonville | 82-96-5 | 46.2% |
| On the road | 92-97-3 | 48.7% |
| In London | 7-7 | 50.0% |
| Favored | 58-71-1 | 45.0% |
| Underdog | 121-128-7 | 48.6% |
| Underdog by 7 or more | 38-36-2 | 51.3% |
| Favored by 10 or more | 5-8 | 38.5% |
| Inside the AFC South | 73-65-6 | 52.8% |
| Night games (7 PM ET or later) | 14-18-1 | 43.9% |
| 2002-2013 | 88-100-4 | 46.9% |
| 2014-2025 | 93-100-4 | 48.2% |
Home and road exclude the 14 London games, which are counted separately whichever team was listed as host.
Unlike the Vikings, there is no era story here: both halves of the data sit a little below half. None of these splits is far enough from 50%, on enough games, to read anything into.
The Colts
One line does stand out. Against Indianapolis since 2002 the Jaguars are 31-15-2 against the spread (66.7%), while going 22-26 straight up. It held in both halves of the data, 13-10-1 through 2013 and 18-5-1 since, and this season added a 42-7 win as a 10-point favorite.
The caveat is that we found it by looking. There are 48 division pairings in the league, and across that many, one record this lopsided is about what chance alone would produce. It is the most one-sided division matchup against the spread in our data, and a description of past games, not a reason to expect the next one to go the same way.
January
Jacksonville is 4-5 straight up and 5-4 against the spread in the playoffs since 2002. The best run was 2017, when a 10-6 team won two games, including 45-42 at Pittsburgh as a seven-point underdog, and lost the AFC Championship 24-20 at New England. Last season's 13-4 team lost its first playoff game, 27-24 at home to the Bills as a 1.5-point favorite.
Nine playoff games is not a sample, and the 2026 roster changed again on Monday.
Sunday: at the Titans
Next up is a division road game at Nissan Stadium on Sunday, November 15. As stored on 2026-11-10, the spread has the Jaguars by 10.5 (it opened at 10) with a total of 46.5. The line can still move.
If it holds, it would be the most Jacksonville has been favored by on the road since 2002, two points past last week's 8.5 at Baltimore. Tennessee is 1-7, 31st in the power ranking.
History offers little here. The Jaguars have been favored by 10 or more only 13 times since 2002 and beat the spread in five of them, too few to mean anything. In Nashville they are 8-16 straight up and 11-12-1 against the spread, all of it from teams that bear no resemblance to this one.
What the data supports
- The Jaguars are 6-2 with the league's best point margin (+13.5) and first combined EPA rank, on the second-best scoring defense and the fourth-best scoring offense.
- The deadline trades added to an existing strength. The defense ranked second in points allowed and second against the run by EPA before Monday. Our data cannot measure what the new players will add.
- The offense is a co-star, not a passenger: first in passing EPA, 28.6 points a game.
- The market has moved toward them: the most-favored Jaguars season since 2002, and 17-8 against the spread across 2025 and 2026, a lean rather than a finding.
- Teams that start this well keep winning, and land a little below half against the spread as favorites, also a lean.
- The long-run record is below half and within chance. The Colts line is lopsided and was found by looking. Nothing here forecasts a specific game.
See it yourself
- Jaguars team breakdown: game-by-game results with the spread each game carried
- Rankings: the power ranking and the EPA ratings behind this piece
- Standings: 2026 records straight up and against the spread
- Predictions: the model's weekly projections and its season record
- Blog: the rest of the published research, including the Chiefs, Vikings and Bills profiles