Home Favorite / Away Underdog Performance

10+ 631 games
Home Win % .497
Avg Margin 0.5 pts
Slight underdog edge
7.5 to 9.5 547 games
Home Win % .477
Avg Margin 0.7 pts
Slight underdog edge
6 to 7 757 games
Home Win % .497
Avg Margin 1.1 pts
Slight underdog edge
4.5 to 5.5 416 games
Home Win % .440
Avg Margin -1.0 pts
Dogs covering
3 to 4 1172 games
Home Win % .471
Avg Margin -0.1 pts
Slight underdog edge
0 to 2.5 680 games
Home Win % .510
Avg Margin -0.5 pts
Slight favorite edge

Away Favorite / Home Underdog Performance

10+ 144 games
Away Win % .434
Avg Margin -1.1 pts
Dogs covering
7.5 to 9.5 174 games
Away Win % .434
Avg Margin -0.3 pts
Dogs covering
6 to 7 343 games
Away Win % .496
Avg Margin 1.8 pts
Slight underdog edge
4.5 to 5.5 206 games
Away Win % .549
Avg Margin 1.1 pts
Slight favorite edge
3 to 4 1007 games
Away Win % .510
Avg Margin -0.1 pts
Slight favorite edge
0 to 2.5 353 games
Away Win % .494
Avg Margin -0.9 pts
Slight underdog edge
Even 69 games
Away Win % .623
Avg Margin 2.5 pts
Favorites cover well

Line Movement Analysis

Lines Moving Up (More points to Fav)

Movement Games Fav Cover % Trend
+0.5 to +1 1143 48.2% Fade
+1.5 to +2 501 52.6% Cover
+2.5+ 358 48.5% Fade
Sharp money often moves against large line shifts

Lines Moving Down (Fewer points to Fav)

Movement Games Fav Cover % Trend
-0.5 to -1 1108 48.3% Fade
-1.5 to -2 428 46.3% Fade
-2.5+ 395 49.6% Fade
Reverse line movement signals smart money

Distribution of Win Margins ATS

6499 Games Push 1 Pt 2 Pts 3 Pts 4+ Pts 4+ Pct
ATS Win Margin 170 477 399 350 5,103 .785
While the market is efficient at picking a "middle" number, the actual game outcomes are highly volatile. Most results either "cover with ease" or "miss by a mile," with very little middle ground.

Key Spread Insights

Home Underdogs

50.4%

ATS win rate for home dogs getting 3+ points

Road Favorites

44.4%

Road favs of 7+ pts struggle to cover

Revenge Games

50.3%

Teams facing recent loss to opponent

Post-Bye Week

51.4%

Teams coming off bye week ATS