This is the Point Spread trends page for the 10-Year season. Every NFL game has a point spread, but not all spreads are created equal. Our data reveals the historical win rate for each spread, helping you find where the value lies. We analyzed thousands of NFL games to uncover the historical winning percentages for every point spread. Here you can see the breakdown of this data by division, conference and inter-conference.

2025 Season 2024 Season 3-Year 5-Year  10-Year
 All Games Regular Season Postseason Monday Night Sunday Night Thursday Night All Primetime
League  | All Games | 10-Year
H Line Games Push H Wins H Win Pct H Margin V Wins V Win Pct V Margin
-10+ 267 6 140 .536 1.2 121 .464 -1.2
-7.5 to -9.5 217 0 96 .442 -0.3 121 .558 0.3
-6 to -7 333 12 158 .492 0.7 163 .508 -0.7
-4.5 to -5.5 179 2 74 .419 -1.3 103 .581 1.3
-3 to -4 545 25 243 .469 0.2 277 .531 -0.2
0 to -2.5 338 2 171 .509 -0.8 165 .491 0.8
Even 39 0 15 .385 -2.1 24 .615 2.1
0 to 2.5 187 7 91 .505 1 89 .495 -1
3 to 4 485 19 235 .504 0.9 231 .496 -0.9
4.5 to 5.5 110 0 54 .491 -0.8 56 .509 0.8
6 to 7 168 6 75 .464 -2.4 87 .536 2.4
7.5 to 9.5 82 0 45 .549 -1.6 37 .451 1.6
10+ 78 1 42 .545 1.5 35 .455 -1.5
Overall 3028 80 1,439 .488 0 1,509 .512 0
Division  | All Games | 10-Year
H Line Games Push H Wins H Win Pct H Margin V Wins V Win Pct V Margin
-10+ 107 4 53 .514 1.1 50 .486 -1.1
-7.5 to -9.5 77 0 34 .442 -1.1 43 .558 1.1
-6 to -7 112 3 53 .487 1.3 56 .513 -1.3
-4.5 to -5.5 59 0 23 .390 -2.3 36 .610 2.3
-3 to -4 199 7 87 .455 -0.1 105 .545 0.1
0 to -2.5 98 1 44 .454 -1.1 53 .546 1.1
Even 11 0 4 .364 -3.2 7 .636 3.2
0 to 2.5 52 2 24 .481 1 26 .519 -1
3 to 4 179 4 92 .525 0.6 83 .475 -0.6
4.5 to 5.5 43 0 23 .535 1.9 20 .465 -1.9
6 to 7 67 2 27 .418 -2.9 38 .582 2.9
7.5 to 9.5 35 0 20 .571 -1.6 15 .429 1.6
10+ 35 0 15 .429 -1.2 20 .571 1.2
Overall 1074 23 499 .475 -0.2 552 .525 0.2
Conference  | All Games | 10-Year
H Line Games Push H Wins H Win Pct H Margin V Wins V Win Pct V Margin
-10+ 91 1 48 .533 1 42 .467 -1
-7.5 to -9.5 89 0 40 .449 0.6 49 .551 -0.6
-6 to -7 129 6 64 .519 1.3 59 .481 -1.3
-4.5 to -5.5 77 2 30 .403 -1.4 45 .597 1.4
-3 to -4 216 9 103 .498 0.8 104 .502 -0.8
0 to -2.5 141 0 79 .560 -0.5 62 .440 0.5
Even 15 0 8 .533 0.2 7 .467 -0.2
0 to 2.5 72 3 39 .563 1.5 30 .438 -1.5
3 to 4 183 5 97 .544 2 81 .456 -2
4.5 to 5.5 38 0 17 .447 -3.1 21 .553 3.1
6 to 7 53 2 24 .472 -3.2 27 .528 3.2
7.5 to 9.5 30 0 18 .600 -0.2 12 .400 0.2
10+ 25 1 16 .660 5 8 .340 -5
Overall 1159 29 583 .516 0.5 547 .484 -0.5
Inter-Conference  | All Games | 10-Year
H Line Games Push H Wins H Win Pct H Margin V Wins V Win Pct V Margin
-10+ 69 1 39 .572 1.8 29 .428 -1.8
-7.5 to -9.5 51 0 22 .431 -0.9 29 .569 0.9
-6 to -7 92 3 41 .462 -0.8 48 .538 0.8
-4.5 to -5.5 43 0 21 .488 0.1 22 .512 -0.1
-3 to -4 130 9 53 .442 -0.1 68 .558 0.1
0 to -2.5 99 1 48 .490 -1.1 50 .510 1.1
Even 13 0 3 .231 -3.8 10 .769 3.8
0 to 2.5 63 2 28 .460 0.3 33 .540 -0.3
3 to 4 123 10 46 .415 -0.4 67 .585 0.4
4.5 to 5.5 29 0 14 .483 -1.6 15 .517 1.6
6 to 7 48 2 24 .521 -0.9 22 .479 0.9
7.5 to 9.5 17 0 7 .412 -4 10 .588 4
10+ 18 0 11 .611 2 7 .389 -2
Overall 795 28 357 .467 -0.4 410 .533 0.4
Top of Page