This is the Point Spread trends page for the 10-Year season. Every NFL game has a point spread, but not all spreads are created equal. Our data reveals the historical win rate for each spread, helping you find where the value lies. We analyzed thousands of NFL games to uncover the historical winning percentages for every point spread. Here you can see the breakdown of this data by division, conference and inter-conference.

2025 Season 2024 Season 3-Year 5-Year  10-Year
 All Games Regular Season Postseason Monday Night Sunday Night Thursday Night All Primetime
League  | All Games | 10-Year
H Line Games Push H Wins H Win Pct H Margin V Wins V Win Pct V Margin
-10+ 250 6 132 .540 1.3 112 .460 -1.3
-7.5 to -9.5 197 0 87 .442 -0.6 110 .558 0.6
-6 to -7 295 8 144 .502 1 143 .498 -1
-4.5 to -5.5 167 2 71 .431 -1.1 94 .569 1.1
-3 to -4 489 20 216 .462 0.1 253 .538 -0.1
0 to -2.5 311 2 159 .514 -0.7 150 .486 0.7
Even 34 0 14 .412 -1 20 .588 1
0 to 2.5 170 5 84 .509 1 81 .491 -1
3 to 4 440 18 212 .502 1.1 210 .498 -1.1
4.5 to 5.5 101 0 48 .475 -0.9 53 .525 0.9
6 to 7 157 6 70 .465 -2.6 81 .535 2.6
7.5 to 9.5 76 0 42 .553 -1.3 34 .447 1.3
10+ 74 1 40 .547 1.4 33 .453 -1.4
Overall 2761 68 1,319 .490 0.1 1,374 .510 -0.1
Division  | All Games | 10-Year
H Line Games Push H Wins H Win Pct H Margin V Wins V Win Pct V Margin
-10+ 100 4 50 .520 1.3 46 .480 -1.3
-7.5 to -9.5 68 0 31 .456 -1.5 37 .544 1.5
-6 to -7 100 2 50 .510 1.8 48 .490 -1.8
-4.5 to -5.5 56 0 22 .393 -2.2 34 .607 2.2
-3 to -4 178 5 79 .458 0.1 94 .542 -0.1
0 to -2.5 87 1 42 .489 -0.6 44 .511 0.6
Even 8 0 3 .375 -2 5 .625 2
0 to 2.5 50 2 23 .480 0.9 25 .520 -0.9
3 to 4 161 4 84 .534 1 73 .466 -1
4.5 to 5.5 42 0 23 .548 2 19 .452 -2
6 to 7 62 2 25 .419 -3.1 35 .581 3.1
7.5 to 9.5 33 0 19 .576 -1 14 .424 1
10+ 32 0 13 .406 -2.3 19 .594 2.3
Overall 977 20 464 .485 0 493 .515 0
Conference  | All Games | 10-Year
H Line Games Push H Wins H Win Pct H Margin V Wins V Win Pct V Margin
-10+ 85 1 45 .535 1 39 .465 -1
-7.5 to -9.5 82 0 36 .439 0.2 46 .561 -0.2
-6 to -7 112 3 58 .531 1.6 51 .469 -1.6
-4.5 to -5.5 71 2 28 .408 -1.3 41 .592 1.3
-3 to -4 196 8 92 .490 0.4 96 .510 -0.4
0 to -2.5 132 0 74 .561 -0.3 58 .439 0.3
Even 13 0 8 .615 2.4 5 .385 -2.4
0 to 2.5 62 2 35 .581 1.7 25 .419 -1.7
3 to 4 166 5 85 .527 2.1 76 .473 -2.1
4.5 to 5.5 33 0 14 .424 -2.8 19 .576 2.8
6 to 7 50 2 22 .460 -3.5 26 .540 3.5
7.5 to 9.5 27 0 16 .593 -0.4 11 .407 0.4
10+ 25 1 16 .660 5 8 .340 -5
Overall 1054 24 529 .513 0.5 501 .487 -0.5
Inter-Conference  | All Games | 10-Year
H Line Games Push H Wins H Win Pct H Margin V Wins V Win Pct V Margin
-10+ 65 1 37 .577 1.9 27 .423 -1.9
-7.5 to -9.5 47 0 20 .426 -0.9 27 .574 0.9
-6 to -7 83 3 36 .452 -0.9 44 .548 0.9
-4.5 to -5.5 40 0 21 .525 0.5 19 .475 -0.5
-3 to -4 115 7 45 .422 -0.3 63 .578 0.3
0 to -2.5 92 1 43 .473 -1.5 48 .527 1.5
Even 13 0 3 .231 -3.8 10 .769 3.8
0 to 2.5 58 1 26 .457 0.3 31 .543 -0.3
3 to 4 113 9 43 .420 -0.4 61 .580 0.4
4.5 to 5.5 26 0 11 .423 -3.3 15 .577 3.3
6 to 7 45 2 23 .533 -0.8 20 .467 0.8
7.5 to 9.5 16 0 7 .438 -3.3 9 .563 3.3
10+ 17 0 11 .647 3.2 6 .353 -3.2
Overall 730 24 326 .463 -0.5 380 .537 0.5
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