This is the Point Spread trends page for the 10-Year season. Every NFL game has a point spread, but not all spreads are created equal. Our data reveals the historical win rate for each spread, helping you find where the value lies. We analyzed thousands of NFL games to uncover the historical winning percentages for every point spread. Here you can see the breakdown of this data by division, conference and inter-conference.
10-Year
League | Thursday Night | 10-Year
| H Line | Games | Push | H Wins | H Win Pct | H Margin | V Wins | V Win Pct | V Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -10+ | 14 | 1 | 11 | .821 | 3.4 | 2 | .179 | -3.4 |
| -7.5 to -9.5 | 16 | 0 | 5 | .313 | -2.3 | 11 | .688 | 2.3 |
| -6 to -7 | 13 | 1 | 5 | .423 | -0.1 | 7 | .577 | 0.1 |
| -4.5 to -5.5 | 8 | 0 | 2 | .250 | -2.7 | 6 | .750 | 2.7 |
| -3 to -4 | 39 | 2 | 21 | .564 | 3 | 16 | .436 | -3 |
| 0 to -2.5 | 18 | 0 | 10 | .556 | -0.1 | 8 | .444 | 0.1 |
| Even | 2 | 0 | 0 | .000 | -11 | 2 | 1.000 | 11 |
| 0 to 2.5 | 8 | 1 | 4 | .563 | 0.5 | 3 | .438 | -0.5 |
| 3 to 4 | 30 | 0 | 15 | .500 | 0.1 | 15 | .500 | -0.1 |
| 4.5 to 5.5 | 6 | 0 | 3 | .500 | 1 | 3 | .500 | -1 |
| 6 to 7 | 9 | 0 | 2 | .222 | -4.8 | 7 | .778 | 4.8 |
| 7.5 to 9.5 | 6 | 0 | 3 | .500 | -0.3 | 3 | .500 | 0.3 |
| 10+ | 4 | 0 | 3 | .750 | 2.8 | 1 | .250 | -2.8 |
| Overall | 173 | 5 | 84 | .500 | 0.4 | 84 | .500 | -0.4 |
Division | Thursday Night | 10-Year
| H Line | Games | Push | H Wins | H Win Pct | H Margin | V Wins | V Win Pct | V Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -10+ | 7 | 1 | 5 | .786 | 3.5 | 1 | .214 | -3.5 |
| -7.5 to -9.5 | 6 | 0 | 2 | .333 | -3.3 | 4 | .667 | 3.3 |
| -6 to -7 | 7 | 0 | 3 | .429 | 0.5 | 4 | .571 | -0.5 |
| -4.5 to -5.5 | 5 | 0 | 2 | .400 | 0.3 | 3 | .600 | -0.3 |
| -3 to -4 | 21 | 1 | 9 | .452 | 2 | 11 | .548 | -2 |
| 0 to -2.5 | 6 | 0 | 2 | .333 | -4.3 | 4 | .667 | 4.3 |
| Even | 1 | 0 | 0 | .000 | -6 | 1 | 1.000 | 6 |
| 0 to 2.5 | 7 | 1 | 4 | .643 | 5.4 | 2 | .357 | -5.4 |
| 3 to 4 | 19 | 0 | 8 | .421 | -0.7 | 11 | .579 | 0.7 |
| 4.5 to 5.5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | .250 | -1.1 | 3 | .750 | 1.1 |
| 6 to 7 | 4 | 0 | 1 | .250 | 0.3 | 3 | .750 | -0.3 |
| 10+ | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1.000 | 6.8 | 0 | .000 | -6.8 |
| Overall | 89 | 3 | 39 | .455 | 0.6 | 47 | .545 | -0.6 |
Conference | Thursday Night | 10-Year
| H Line | Games | Push | H Wins | H Win Pct | H Margin | V Wins | V Win Pct | V Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -10+ | 6 | 0 | 5 | .833 | 3.2 | 1 | .167 | -3.2 |
| -7.5 to -9.5 | 9 | 0 | 3 | .333 | -1.7 | 6 | .667 | 1.7 |
| -6 to -7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | .300 | -3.9 | 3 | .700 | 3.9 |
| -4.5 to -5.5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | .000 | -8.8 | 2 | 1.000 | 8.8 |
| -3 to -4 | 13 | 1 | 8 | .654 | 1.9 | 4 | .346 | -1.9 |
| 0 to -2.5 | 8 | 0 | 6 | .750 | 1.1 | 2 | .250 | -1.1 |
| Even | 1 | 0 | 0 | .000 | -16 | 1 | 1.000 | 16 |
| 3 to 4 | 6 | 0 | 5 | .833 | 7.9 | 1 | .167 | -7.9 |
| 4.5 to 5.5 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1.000 | 5.3 | 0 | .000 | -5.3 |
| 6 to 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | .000 | -7.5 | 2 | 1.000 | 7.5 |
| 7.5 to 9.5 | 5 | 0 | 3 | .600 | 1.1 | 2 | .400 | -1.1 |
| Overall | 59 | 2 | 33 | .576 | 0.6 | 24 | .424 | -0.6 |
Inter-Conference | Thursday Night | 10-Year
| H Line | Games | Push | H Wins | H Win Pct | H Margin | V Wins | V Win Pct | V Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -10+ | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.000 | 4.5 | 0 | .000 | -4.5 |
| -7.5 to -9.5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | .000 | -2.5 | 1 | 1.000 | 2.5 |
| -6 to -7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.000 | 14.5 | 0 | .000 | -14.5 |
| -4.5 to -5.5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | .000 | -5.5 | 1 | 1.000 | 5.5 |
| -3 to -4 | 5 | 0 | 4 | .800 | 10.4 | 1 | .200 | -10.4 |
| 0 to -2.5 | 4 | 0 | 2 | .500 | 4.1 | 2 | .500 | -4.1 |
| 0 to 2.5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | .000 | -34 | 1 | 1.000 | 34 |
| 3 to 4 | 5 | 0 | 2 | .400 | -6 | 3 | .600 | 6 |
| 6 to 7 | 3 | 0 | 1 | .333 | -9.8 | 2 | .667 | 9.8 |
| 7.5 to 9.5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | .000 | -7.5 | 1 | 1.000 | 7.5 |
| 10+ | 2 | 0 | 1 | .500 | -1.3 | 1 | .500 | 1.3 |
| Overall | 25 | 0 | 12 | .480 | -1 | 13 | .520 | 1 |