This is the Point Spread trends page for the 10-Year season. Every NFL game has a point spread, but not all spreads are created equal. Our data reveals the historical win rate for each spread, helping you find where the value lies. We analyzed thousands of NFL games to uncover the historical winning percentages for every point spread. Here you can see the breakdown of this data by division, conference and inter-conference.

2025 Season 2024 Season 3-Year 5-Year  10-Year
All Games Regular Season Postseason Monday Night Sunday Night Thursday Night  All Primetime
League  | Primetime | 10-Year
H Line Games Push H Wins H Win Pct H Margin V Wins V Win Pct V Margin
-10+ 49 1 26 .541 -0.5 22 .459 0.5
-7.5 to -9.5 51 0 22 .431 0.8 29 .569 -0.8
-6 to -7 72 4 35 .514 0.4 33 .486 -0.4
-4.5 to -5.5 43 0 16 .372 -0.4 27 .628 0.4
-3 to -4 120 5 58 .504 1.5 57 .496 -1.5
0 to -2.5 61 0 30 .492 -0.4 31 .508 0.4
Even 5 0 3 .600 -0.2 2 .400 0.2
0 to 2.5 36 1 17 .486 -2.6 18 .514 2.6
3 to 4 116 5 55 .496 0.5 56 .504 -0.5
4.5 to 5.5 20 0 8 .400 -2.4 12 .600 2.4
6 to 7 34 1 16 .485 -1.8 17 .515 1.8
7.5 to 9.5 15 0 9 .600 -1.1 6 .400 1.1
10+ 10 0 7 .700 5.1 3 .300 -5.1
Overall 632 17 302 .491 0.1 313 .509 -0.1
Division  | Primetime | 10-Year
H Line Games Push H Wins H Win Pct H Margin V Wins V Win Pct V Margin
-10+ 15 1 10 .700 0.6 4 .300 -0.6
-7.5 to -9.5 16 0 8 .500 1.6 8 .500 -1.6
-6 to -7 23 1 10 .457 1 12 .543 -1
-4.5 to -5.5 15 0 5 .333 -1.4 10 .667 1.4
-3 to -4 50 3 22 .470 1.4 25 .530 -1.4
0 to -2.5 19 0 9 .474 0.4 10 .526 -0.4
Even 2 0 1 .500 5.5 1 .500 -5.5
0 to 2.5 16 1 8 .531 1.8 7 .469 -1.8
3 to 4 47 1 23 .500 0.6 23 .500 -0.6
4.5 to 5.5 11 0 4 .364 -3.8 7 .636 3.8
6 to 7 10 0 4 .400 -2.7 6 .600 2.7
7.5 to 9.5 4 0 2 .500 -4.9 2 .500 4.9
10+ 6 0 4 .667 5.3 2 .333 -5.3
Overall 234 7 110 .485 0.5 117 .515 -0.5
Conference  | Primetime | 10-Year
H Line Games Push H Wins H Win Pct H Margin V Wins V Win Pct V Margin
-10+ 23 0 12 .522 -1.5 11 .478 1.5
-7.5 to -9.5 24 0 10 .417 1.2 14 .583 -1.2
-6 to -7 32 2 16 .531 1 14 .469 -1
-4.5 to -5.5 18 0 7 .389 -0.8 11 .611 0.8
-3 to -4 53 1 26 .500 0.5 26 .500 -0.5
0 to -2.5 27 0 17 .630 0.4 10 .370 -0.4
Even 2 0 1 .500 -6.5 1 .500 6.5
0 to 2.5 10 0 5 .500 -5.7 5 .500 5.7
3 to 4 44 1 27 .625 3.2 16 .375 -3.2
4.5 to 5.5 6 0 3 .500 -2.8 3 .500 2.8
6 to 7 10 0 6 .600 0.4 4 .400 -0.4
7.5 to 9.5 9 0 7 .778 1.9 2 .222 -1.9
10+ 2 0 2 1.000 10.5 0 .000 -10.5
Overall 260 4 139 .542 0.6 117 .458 -0.6
Inter-Conference  | Primetime | 10-Year
H Line Games Push H Wins H Win Pct H Margin V Wins V Win Pct V Margin
-10+ 11 0 4 .364 -0.1 7 .636 0.1
-7.5 to -9.5 11 0 4 .364 -1.3 7 .636 1.3
-6 to -7 17 1 9 .559 -1.4 7 .441 1.4
-4.5 to -5.5 10 0 4 .400 1.6 6 .600 -1.6
-3 to -4 17 1 10 .618 4.8 6 .382 -4.8
0 to -2.5 15 0 4 .267 -2.9 11 .733 2.9
Even 1 0 1 1.000 1 0 .000 -1
0 to 2.5 10 0 4 .400 -6.7 6 .600 6.7
3 to 4 25 3 5 .260 -4.7 17 .740 4.7
4.5 to 5.5 3 0 1 .333 3.7 2 .667 -3.7
6 to 7 14 1 6 .464 -2.6 7 .536 2.6
7.5 to 9.5 2 0 0 .000 -7.5 2 1.000 7.5
10+ 2 0 1 .500 -1.3 1 .500 1.3
Overall 138 6 53 .406 -1.5 79 .594 1.5
Top of Page