Point Spreads

Map spread performance taxes to find where public sentiment splits from the sharp reality

Home Favorite / Away Underdog Performance

10+ 26 games
Home Win % .519
Avg Margin 0.3 pts
Slight favorite edge
7.5 to 9.5 25 games
Home Win % .480
Avg Margin 1.4 pts
Slight underdog edge
6 to 7 28 games
Home Win % .500
Avg Margin 0.7 pts
Neutral zone
4.5 to 5.5 18 games
Home Win % .500
Avg Margin -0.6 pts
Neutral zone
3 to 4 51 games
Home Win % .618
Avg Margin 5.6 pts
Favorites cover well
0 to 2.5 25 games
Home Win % .600
Avg Margin 3.4 pts
Favorites cover well

Away Favorite / Home Underdog Performance

10+ 5 games
Away Win % .600
Avg Margin -1.1 pts
Favorites cover well
7.5 to 9.5 7 games
Away Win % .786
Avg Margin 3.4 pts
Favorites cover well
6 to 7 10 games
Away Win % .600
Avg Margin 6.8 pts
Favorites cover well
4.5 to 5.5 4 games
Away Win % .500
Avg Margin -3.5 pts
Neutral zone
3 to 4 42 games
Away Win % .655
Avg Margin 2.8 pts
Favorites cover well
0 to 2.5 12 games
Away Win % .500
Avg Margin -0.5 pts
Neutral zone
Even 3 games
Away Win % .333
Avg Margin -5.0 pts
Big favorites struggle

Line Movement Analysis

No opening-line data for this selection yet - line movement fills in as games are captured with an opening line.

Distribution of Win Margins ATS

256 Games Push 1 Pt 2 Pts 3 Pts 4+ Pts 4+ Pct
ATS Win Margin 8 18 6 24 200 .781
While the market is efficient at picking a "middle" number, the actual game outcomes are highly volatile. Most results either "cover with ease" or "miss by a mile," with very little middle ground.

Key Spread Insights

Home Underdogs

34.4%

ATS win rate for home dogs getting 3+ points

Road Favorites

71.9%

Road favs of 7+ pts struggle to cover

Revenge Games

48.2%

Teams facing recent loss to opponent

Post-Bye Week

62.5%

Teams coming off bye week ATS