This is the Point Spread trends page for the 2023 season. Every NFL game has a point spread, but not all spreads are created equal. Our data reveals the historical win rate for each spread, helping you find where the value lies. We analyzed thousands of NFL games to uncover the historical winning percentages for every point spread. Here you can see the breakdown of this data by division, conference and inter-conference.
2023-2024
League | Regular Season | 2023
| H Line | Games | Push | H Wins | H Win Pct | H Margin | V Wins | V Win Pct | V Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -10+ | 20 | 2 | 9 | .500 | -0.1 | 9 | .500 | 0.1 |
| -7.5 to -9.5 | 18 | 0 | 8 | .444 | -1.3 | 10 | .556 | 1.3 |
| -6 to -7 | 24 | 0 | 14 | .583 | 4.9 | 10 | .417 | -4.9 |
| -4.5 to -5.5 | 11 | 0 | 4 | .364 | -0.5 | 7 | .636 | 0.5 |
| -3 to -4 | 60 | 4 | 32 | .567 | 3.5 | 24 | .433 | -3.5 |
| 0 to -2.5 | 35 | 1 | 18 | .529 | 0.3 | 16 | .471 | -0.3 |
| Even | 2 | 0 | 0 | .000 | -9 | 2 | 1.000 | 9 |
| 0 to 2.5 | 21 | 0 | 7 | .333 | -2.5 | 14 | .667 | 2.5 |
| 3 to 4 | 50 | 5 | 19 | .430 | -0.7 | 26 | .570 | 0.7 |
| 4.5 to 5.5 | 9 | 0 | 5 | .556 | 0.9 | 4 | .444 | -0.9 |
| 6 to 7 | 8 | 1 | 5 | .688 | 6.8 | 2 | .313 | -6.8 |
| 7.5 to 9.5 | 7 | 0 | 4 | .571 | -1 | 3 | .429 | 1 |
| 10+ | 7 | 1 | 2 | .357 | -0.2 | 4 | .643 | 0.2 |
| Overall | 272 | 14 | 127 | .493 | 0.9 | 131 | .507 | -0.9 |
Division | Regular Season | 2023
| H Line | Games | Push | H Wins | H Win Pct | H Margin | V Wins | V Win Pct | V Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -10+ | 9 | 1 | 4 | .500 | 0.8 | 4 | .500 | -0.8 |
| -7.5 to -9.5 | 8 | 0 | 3 | .375 | -4.7 | 5 | .625 | 4.7 |
| -6 to -7 | 7 | 0 | 6 | .857 | 10.4 | 1 | .143 | -10.4 |
| -4.5 to -5.5 | 2 | 0 | 1 | .500 | -6.5 | 1 | .500 | 6.5 |
| -3 to -4 | 22 | 0 | 12 | .545 | 4.2 | 10 | .455 | -4.2 |
| 0 to -2.5 | 9 | 0 | 2 | .222 | -5.8 | 7 | .778 | 5.8 |
| Even | 1 | 0 | 0 | .000 | -14 | 1 | 1.000 | 14 |
| 0 to 2.5 | 8 | 0 | 2 | .250 | -5 | 6 | .750 | 5 |
| 3 to 4 | 19 | 1 | 8 | .447 | -0.5 | 10 | .553 | 0.5 |
| 4.5 to 5.5 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1.000 | 16.8 | 0 | .000 | -16.8 |
| 6 to 7 | 4 | 1 | 1 | .375 | 2.6 | 2 | .625 | -2.6 |
| 7.5 to 9.5 | 3 | 0 | 1 | .333 | -1.5 | 2 | .667 | 1.5 |
| 10+ | 2 | 0 | 0 | .000 | -9.8 | 2 | 1.000 | 9.8 |
| Overall | 96 | 3 | 42 | .453 | 0.3 | 51 | .547 | -0.3 |
Conference | Regular Season | 2023
| H Line | Games | Push | H Wins | H Win Pct | H Margin | V Wins | V Win Pct | V Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -10+ | 6 | 1 | 1 | .250 | -7 | 4 | .750 | 7 |
| -7.5 to -9.5 | 7 | 0 | 3 | .429 | -0.3 | 4 | .571 | 0.3 |
| -6 to -7 | 11 | 0 | 6 | .545 | 4.9 | 5 | .455 | -4.9 |
| -4.5 to -5.5 | 6 | 0 | 1 | .167 | -5.9 | 5 | .833 | 5.9 |
| -3 to -4 | 19 | 1 | 11 | .605 | 4 | 7 | .395 | -4 |
| 0 to -2.5 | 11 | 0 | 7 | .636 | 5.1 | 4 | .364 | -5.1 |
| 0 to 2.5 | 5 | 0 | 3 | .600 | 2.7 | 2 | .400 | -2.7 |
| 3 to 4 | 18 | 0 | 7 | .389 | -1.1 | 11 | .611 | 1.1 |
| 4.5 to 5.5 | 5 | 0 | 2 | .400 | -0.8 | 3 | .600 | 0.8 |
| 6 to 7 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1.000 | 8.5 | 0 | .000 | -8.5 |
| 7.5 to 9.5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.000 | 5 | 0 | .000 | -5 |
| 10+ | 5 | 1 | 2 | .500 | 3.6 | 2 | .500 | -3.6 |
| Overall | 96 | 3 | 46 | .495 | 1.4 | 47 | .505 | -1.4 |
Inter-Conference | Regular Season | 2023
| H Line | Games | Push | H Wins | H Win Pct | H Margin | V Wins | V Win Pct | V Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -10+ | 5 | 0 | 4 | .800 | 6.6 | 1 | .200 | -6.6 |
| -7.5 to -9.5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | .667 | 5.7 | 1 | .333 | -5.7 |
| -6 to -7 | 6 | 0 | 2 | .333 | -1.6 | 4 | .667 | 1.6 |
| -4.5 to -5.5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | .667 | 14.5 | 1 | .333 | -14.5 |
| -3 to -4 | 19 | 3 | 9 | .553 | 2.1 | 7 | .447 | -2.1 |
| 0 to -2.5 | 15 | 1 | 9 | .633 | 0.4 | 5 | .367 | -0.4 |
| Even | 1 | 0 | 0 | .000 | -4 | 1 | 1.000 | 4 |
| 0 to 2.5 | 8 | 0 | 2 | .250 | -3.1 | 6 | .750 | 3.1 |
| 3 to 4 | 13 | 4 | 4 | .462 | -0.4 | 5 | .538 | 0.4 |
| 4.5 to 5.5 | 2 | 0 | 1 | .500 | -10.8 | 1 | .500 | 10.8 |
| 6 to 7 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1.000 | 13.3 | 0 | .000 | -13.3 |
| 7.5 to 9.5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | .667 | -2.5 | 1 | .333 | 2.5 |
| Overall | 80 | 8 | 39 | .538 | 1.2 | 33 | .463 | -1.2 |