This is the Point Spread trends page for the 2016 season. Every NFL game has a point spread, but not all spreads are created equal. Our data reveals the historical win rate for each spread, helping you find where the value lies. We analyzed thousands of NFL games to uncover the historical winning percentages for every point spread. Here you can see the breakdown of this data by division, conference and inter-conference.

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All Games  Regular Season Postseason Monday Night Sunday Night Thursday Night All Primetime
League  | Regular Season | 2016
H Line Games Push H Wins H Win Pct H Margin V Wins V Win Pct V Margin
-10+ 12 0 9 .750 5 3 .250 -5
-7.5 to -9.5 19 0 9 .474 1.7 10 .526 -1.7
-6 to -7 35 3 15 .471 0.7 17 .529 -0.7
-4.5 to -5.5 15 0 5 .333 -9.3 10 .667 9.3
-3 to -4 60 2 25 .433 0.2 33 .567 -0.2
0 to -2.5 24 0 16 .667 0.9 8 .333 -0.9
Even 5 0 2 .400 0.6 3 .600 -0.6
0 to 2.5 17 3 8 .559 -0.6 6 .441 0.6
3 to 4 40 1 21 .538 4.6 18 .463 -4.6
4.5 to 5.5 14 0 7 .500 1.7 7 .500 -1.7
6 to 7 6 1 1 .250 -7.3 4 .750 7.3
7.5 to 9.5 6 0 2 .333 -3.9 4 .667 3.9
10+ 3 0 1 .333 -0.8 2 .667 0.8
Overall 256 10 121 .492 0.6 125 .508 -0.6
Division  | Regular Season | 2016
H Line Games Push H Wins H Win Pct H Margin V Wins V Win Pct V Margin
-10+ 6 0 5 .833 6.7 1 .167 -6.7
-7.5 to -9.5 6 0 1 .167 -6.7 5 .833 6.7
-6 to -7 10 1 3 .350 0.9 6 .650 -0.9
-4.5 to -5.5 5 0 2 .400 -7.2 3 .600 7.2
-3 to -4 23 2 11 .522 0 10 .478 0
0 to -2.5 7 0 4 .571 0.1 3 .429 -0.1
Even 2 0 1 .500 6 1 .500 -6
0 to 2.5 5 1 3 .700 2.7 1 .300 -2.7
3 to 4 18 0 11 .611 4.8 7 .389 -4.8
4.5 to 5.5 8 0 4 .500 3.8 4 .500 -3.8
6 to 7 2 0 0 .000 -20.5 2 1.000 20.5
7.5 to 9.5 3 0 1 .333 -5.5 2 .667 5.5
10+ 1 0 1 1.000 9 0 .000 -9
Overall 96 4 47 .510 0.7 45 .490 -0.7
Conference  | Regular Season | 2016
H Line Games Push H Wins H Win Pct H Margin V Wins V Win Pct V Margin
-10+ 4 0 3 .750 6.6 1 .250 -6.6
-7.5 to -9.5 9 0 6 .667 8 3 .333 -8
-6 to -7 12 1 6 .542 1 5 .458 -1
-4.5 to -5.5 6 0 1 .167 -11.3 5 .833 11.3
-3 to -4 21 0 12 .571 4.2 9 .429 -4.2
0 to -2.5 13 0 10 .769 1.1 3 .231 -1.1
0 to 2.5 8 2 3 .500 -2.4 3 .500 2.4
3 to 4 14 1 6 .464 3.9 7 .536 -3.9
4.5 to 5.5 4 0 1 .250 -6.9 3 .750 6.9
6 to 7 2 0 1 .500 2.5 1 .500 -2.5
7.5 to 9.5 2 0 1 .500 5.3 1 .500 -5.3
10+ 1 0 0 .000 -9.5 1 1.000 9.5
Overall 96 4 50 .542 1.7 42 .458 -1.7
Inter-Conference  | Regular Season | 2016
H Line Games Push H Wins H Win Pct H Margin V Wins V Win Pct V Margin
-10+ 2 0 1 .500 -3 1 .500 3
-7.5 to -9.5 4 0 2 .500 0 2 .500 0
-6 to -7 13 1 6 .500 0.3 6 .500 -0.3
-4.5 to -5.5 4 0 2 .500 -8.9 2 .500 8.9
-3 to -4 16 0 2 .125 -4.8 14 .875 4.8
0 to -2.5 4 0 2 .500 1.9 2 .500 -1.9
Even 3 0 1 .333 -3 2 .667 3
0 to 2.5 4 0 2 .500 -1.3 2 .500 1.3
3 to 4 8 0 4 .500 5.4 4 .500 -5.4
4.5 to 5.5 2 0 2 1.000 10.3 0 .000 -10.3
6 to 7 2 1 0 .250 -3.8 1 .750 3.8
7.5 to 9.5 1 0 0 .000 -17.5 1 1.000 17.5
10+ 1 0 0 .000 -2 1 1.000 2
Overall 64 2 24 .391 -1.3 38 .609 1.3
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